Recon once again cancelled upper winds are marginal now

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... wt20us.htm

This is the 11:30 AM TWO. From upper winds favorable to marginal that is a change.They sound less bullish than in past outlooks and really there is no LLC around to pinpoint in the area.

[Anonymous]

i don't see much in the way of development until it moves into the S GOM/BOC. QuikSCAT data shows no signs of a LLC.

[donsutherland1]

At this time, I wouldn't be so quick to write off the potential that this area of disturbed weather could become Tropical Depression 17.

Certainly, its last recorded central pressure (1007 MB) would be consistent with a TD, thus not much additional development might be required for it to achieve such a status.

Arguments in favor of its becoming a TD include:

1) Very warm SSTs (above 30C) which are approximately 0.5C to 1.0C above normal for this time of year.
2) Minimal wind shear and a continued decrease in such wind shear.
3) The possible ongoing development of a vorticity center albeit a weak and displaced one (near 19N 83W vs. the disturbance's last reported location at 19N 85W).

Arguments against its becoming a TD:

1) An environment that is not yet fully favorable for development.
2) Close proximity to the Yucatan and western Cuba, along with a slow northwest drift that could bring it closer to the Yucatan.
3) A failure to achieve more rapid development in its present environment (though the possible emergence of a vorticity center might suggest that the disturbance is approaching the point of developing further)

All in all, especially as Kate's development offers a fresh reminder, one should not prematurely write off systems until such time that they show sufficient decay to merit such a position. This is not yet the case with the disturbance in question and its current failure to date to develop is not, in my mind, sufficient to justify its being written off.

To be fair, I don't think TPC is writing off this system, just yet. Still, I don't think one should get the wrong impression that this is the case just because TPC canceled the scheduled reconnaissance flight.

In short, while it is entirely possible that this disturbance may never become TD 17, it is too soon to make this call. On the contrary, there may be new evidence that suggests that it could now moving into a formative stage that could lead to its becoming TD 17.

[Anonymous]

In short, while it is entirely possible that this disturbance may never become TD 17, it is too soon to make this call. On the contrary, there may be new evidence that suggests that it could now moving into a formative stage that could lead to its becoming TD 17.

Agree 100%. Proximity to land will likely inhibit development over the next few days. But once the low clears the Yucatan things could get interesting in a hurry.