ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ronjon]

HRRR Model bringing the storm into the Jupiter/Stuart area..looks like the outer edge of the eyewall slams Ft.Lauderdale northward

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php

probably the best simulation so far - what really stinks is matt is coming ashore at night - I just went thru Hermine at night with rising surge and loss of power - and that was a CAT 1 storm. It is scary and no fun.

[got ants?]

HRRR Model bringing the storm into the Jupiter/Stuart area..looks like the outer edge of the eyewall slams Ft.Lauderdale northward

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php

probably the best simulation so far - what really stinks is matt is coming ashore at night - I just went thru Hermine at night with rising surge and loss of power - and that was a CAT 1 storm. It is scary and no fun.

That run puts it in my hood..

[stormlover2013]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0


Nam is running, I know its the nam but something to watch

[gatorcane]

13Z HRRR running now. Looks rough from Ft Lauderdale north:

[JPmia]

Does the HRRR model project wind speed? Curious to know what it would say about NE Broward.. my guess is that we'll see 50-70 mph sustained.

[gatorcane]

Wow look at the band over Eastern Palm Beach/NE Broward that the 13Z HRRR is showing:

[tolakram]

[stephen23]

What have I missed overnight? I see that it is still a cat3 but the pressure has dropped quite a bit overnight. I see that it has maintained a 317 degree heading as it has since around 7pm yesterday evening bringing this thing ashore around 25 miles north of Jupiter. Are they still expecting this to be a cat 4 at landfall?

[tolakram]

What have I missed overnight? I see that it is still a cat3 but the pressure has dropped quite a bit overnight. I see that it has maintained a 317 degree heading as it has since around 7pm yesterday evening bringing this thing ashore around 25 miles north of Jupiter. Are they still expecting this to be a cat 4 at landfall?

May want to post this that in the discussion forum, not the models. Always visit the NHC site first, see what they are forecasting.

HRRR 13z run

[jlauderdal]

13Z HRRR running now. Looks rough from Ft Lauderdale north:

my forecast is going up in smoke and even worse i get the eyewall if the hrrr verifies

[gatorcane]

Slight shift east on GFS through 18 hours

[stormlover2013]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=255


GFS rolling

[CalmBeforeStorm]

12z GFS just a little east of 6z run in the 18 hour time frame. Every little bit helps those on the coast.

[bqknight]

12z GFS just a little east of 6z run in the 18 hour time frame. Every little bit helps those on the coast.

Ends up making landfall about the same place and scooting in near Orlando.

[WPBWeather]

12z GFS just a little east of 6z run in the 18 hour time frame. Every little bit helps those on the coast.

Ends up making landfall about the same place and scooting in near Orlando.

The next Euro and then GFS runs will be critical, to state the obvious.

[bamajammer4eva]

It's further inland a hair still inland entering Georgia

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[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFS just a little east of 6z run in the 18 hour time frame. Every little bit helps those on the coast.

Eye still scrapes Martin thru Melbourne. Maybe 5 miles east of 06z

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

It's further inland a hair still inland entering Georgia

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Where in Ga? I'm in Savannah, Ga(35 miles from coast)

[bamajammer4eva]

It's further inland a hair still inland entering Georgia

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Where in Ga? I'm in Savannah, Ga(35 miles from coast)

Looks like it goes along the coast and goes a little offshore around Brunswick

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[Ken711]

It's further inland a hair still inland entering Georgia

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Where in Ga? I'm in Savannah, Ga(35 miles from coast)

Looks like maybe Brunswick on the 12z GFS.