ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[GCANE]

The best performing model for Matthew has been ECMO with an error of 25 miles.
This makes the likely landfall at Jupiter.
However, Matthew has a propensity to deflect toward land on its approach.
So, IMHO at this point, likely landfall would be around West Palm Beach.

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

Good morning, all I could find is the ECMWF is this the same group/family as the ECMO & is the ECMWF a good reliable model? My local met. just said on fb that euro is king as far as models & its what he & NHC uses?

[tolakram]

Good morning, all I could find is the ECMWF is this the same group/family as the ECMO & is the ECMWF a good reliable model? My local met. just said on fb that euro is king as far as models & its what he & NHC uses?

Euro is generally the better model but the NHC uses a blend, 9 times out of 10 the blend of the top performing models will end up with the best track.

[Steve]

Good morning, all I could find is the ECMWF is this the same group/family as the ECMO & is the ECMWF a good reliable model? My local met. just said on fb that euro is king as far as models & its what he & NHC uses?

They use it but they tell you in the specific forecast discussions what they are going with, with a given storm in a given discussion. They generally favor some type of blend.

[adam0983]

Could hurricane Matthew make landfall further south and west near southern palm beach county and go inland. Hurricane Matthew eye is missing Nassau to the south and west.

[jlauderdal]

Could hurricane Matthew make landfall further south and west near southern palm beach county and go inland. Hurricane Matthew eye is missing Nassau to the south and west.

yes..there is model support for it to get close...palm beach north should prepare for landafall although those preps need to be done real soon..there are already palm fronds down on my street in fll

[bg1]

Good morning, all I could find is the ECMWF is this the same group/family as the ECMO & is the ECMWF a good reliable model? My local met. just said on fb that euro is king as far as models & its what he & NHC uses?

Wait, he actually used that exact wording? I thought it was just this forum. But it is one of the top 4 models.

[Nimbus]

In the shorter time frame say 12 hours or less theoretically whatever high resolution model gets initialized with the most current data will be the most accurate.

HWRF is kind of complex and neurotic but it has the theoretical resolution to be useful in the last few hours before Matthew approaches land. We probably do better with radar on storm2k minute by minute for local predictions in the last hour.

[RL3AO]

The HRRR also initializes radar data into the model from entire US radar network. So it's getting at least a little more info now.

[bqknight]

The HRRR also initializes radar data into the model from entire US radar network. So it's getting at least a little more info now.

This model should get more and more accurate as it moves into sight of radar.

[gatorcane]

What does the HRRR show?

[ronjon]

The HRRR also initializes radar data into the model from entire US radar network. So it's getting at least a little more info now.

Can someone post a link to the latest HRRR model?

[dukeblue219]

Good morning, all I could find is the ECMWF is this the same group/family as the ECMO & is the ECMWF a good reliable model? My local met. just said on fb that euro is king as far as models & its what he & NHC uses?

Wait, he actually used that exact wording? I thought it was just this forum. But it is one of the top 4 models.

No, that's a consistent nickname among meteorologists and weather fans. It's not always right of course. But it's a pretty sophisticated model and, as global models go, impresses more often than not. In the immediate (<24 hour) timeframe there are other options for looking at localized effects (for example, HRRR to see how the banding is setting up over a certain city), but Euro is pretty much King at the 3-7 day range. GFS is his right-hand man though.

[Ntxw]

The HRRR also initializes radar data into the model from entire US radar network. So it's getting at least a little more info now.

Can someone post a link to the latest HRRR model?

You can get HRRR data directly from the NCEP model page

HRRR

Or Tropicaltidbits under mesoscale models

Tropicaltidbits HRRR

[dukeblue219]

The HRRR also initializes radar data into the model from entire US radar network. So it's getting at least a little more info now.

Can someone post a link to the latest HRRR model?

It's on Tropical Tidbits under Mesoscale

[ronjon]

HRRR - Jupiter landfall at midnight.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016100612/hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_16.png

[ronjon]

Western eyewall raking Palm Beach County from 8pm to midnight tonight according to HRRR model.

[bqknight]

Western eyewall raking Palm Beach County from 8pm to midnight tonight according to HRRR model.

I think this model needs a bit more data to become truly accurate, as the storm completely comes into radar's view, should get a good idea.

[Nimbus]

Feeder band vectors starting to get longer.
Doubt V5 will turn out the lights though.

[Bocadude85]

HRRR Model bringing the storm into the Jupiter/Stuart area..looks like the outer edge of the eyewall slams Ft.Lauderdale northward

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php