ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[stephen23]

Sure is looking more and more like we here in PBC are going to catch the western eyewall

Yea the 24 hour position is east of Ft. Lauderdale, I would assume PBC would be the landfall location

Wouldn't take much of a jog west at that point to put the Jupiter area in the N or NE eyewall

Storm is currently heading at 317.5 degrees. Put that straight to the coast and that would make landfall 25 miles north of Jupiter.

[Alyono]

EC has a landfall just north of Palm Beach shortly after 3Z

[Bocadude85]

That HRRR model people have been mentioning is bringing the western eyewall into metro broward and heading for what looks like a South/Central Palm Beach County landfall.

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php

[Hammy]

EC has a landfall just north of Palm Beach shortly after 3Z

Is that close to where Frances and Jeanne hit?

[Alyono]

deep inland at 9Z

[xironman]

48, a bit further north than last night, the high off of MA is a bit more east

[xironman]

48, a bit further north than last night, the high off of MA is a bit more east

[Alyono]

EC has a landfall just north of Palm Beach shortly after 3Z

Is that close to where Frances and Jeanne hit?

south

[xironman]

NM

[xironman]

NM - Man, my computer is acting up

[LarryWx]

deep inland at 9Z

Thanks, Alyono! Please give us more off hour positions if you don't mind.

Where does he go between hour 48 and 72? Does he hit SAV or CHS? My guess is offshore both.

[Alyono]

deep inland at 9Z

Thanks, Alyono! Please give us more off hour positions if you don't mind.

Where does he go between hour 48 and 72? Does he hit SAV or CHS? My guess is offshore both.

stays offshore. Core really gets disrupted by the Florida landfall

[Steve]

European at 72 hours is just off the SC coast which might be a dose of good news there. However, low-res ECMWF has the strongest storms on land at that point. And yeah, it's moving back toward the SE at 96, so the loop might happen unless it kicks or eases out to sea.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=188

Good night to y'all and good luck. We're less than a day from things going down-hill.

[Steve]

One last post, ECMWF is taking aim at SFL again in 120 hours. That's Monday night and 997mb on the low resolution version. :/

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

At 11 PM tonight, the EC has a 939mb monster just 20 miles east of Palm Beach

Indeed

[Steve]

At 11 PM tonight, the EC has a 939mb monster just 20 miles east of Palm Beach

Indeed

I don't use social media but that's #flormageddon

But it's wors for the Northern Bahamas. ECMWF completes the wide loop in the SW Atlantic. Ouch. We will see 5 days if remnants are still in the WATL, Gulf or out to sea. There's a big spread at that point.

[chris46n]

I remember hurricane Jeanne being 50 mile eye. This hurricane will be much smaller eye.

[ericinmia]

Looks reasonable.... Probably an eventual landfall in WPB...
I don't like the West wobble after Andros Island crossing. Brings bad weather closer to Dade/Broward
Bimini would go through the eye in this run...

[StarmanHDB]

How reliable is the HRRR in near landfall time frames?

[johnbasham]

Honestly HRRR hasn't been tested in this type of scenario with this much data being ingested (with regard to a land falling U.S. Hurricane). Keep in mind the HRRR has gone through some amazing leaps forward over just the past 2 years both in it's physics modeling and data ingestion and handling.

It's reasonable to assume it would handle ANY system as well as it handles ANY other at this point. That said, sometimes it nails it... Sometimes it truly blows it! It also has a great deal to do with the forecast hours initialization as some hours include far more (volume and accuracy) initialization data than others.