ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

Looped around and now hitting Florida again, very weak.

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

It's not buying the Euro Charleston track, which is a good thing I guess.

http://i.imgur.com/9kUsF2g.png

After Fl does model consensus & support show it OTS or do you feel like me in Savannah, Ga could be impacted by Matthew?

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if the loop occurs, we know by that time that it will be extremely weak, but any additional rainfall on top saturated ground will only make it worse

[tolakram]

After Fl does model consensus & support show it OTS or do you feel like me in Savannah, Ga could be impacted by Matthew?

Both models show this very close to Savannah. Heed what your local authorities recommend, depending on the path it could get nasty but I am not familiar with the area.

[Wakeknight]

Just as an FYI all of Florida is subject to the same building codes. The high velocity wind codes are state wide and are applicable to all structures within the specific proximity of the coastline; not just south Florida.

The codes were strengthened a lot after Hurricane Andrew but they are still not as strong as the Miami-Dade codes and any construction pre-1992 is VERY weak relatively especially the stuff built in the 70's and 80's. There were massive failures in Andrew with this kind of construction. I expect the same if we get Cat 3/4 winds. It will be ugly.

The codes are updated constantly. Florida currently uses the 2014 Florida building code. There is no such hibg as Miami-dade building codes anymore. They are state wide high velocity wind zones that were born out of the old Miami fade requirements.

That being said you are correct all older construction day mid 70,s to early 90s is very suspect

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Just as an FYI all of Florida is subject to the same building codes. The high velocity wind codes are state wide and are applicable to all structures within the specific proximity of the coastline; not just south Florida.

The codes were strengthened a lot after Hurricane Andrew but they are still not as strong as the Miami-Dade codes and any construction pre-1992 is VERY weak relatively especially the stuff built in the 70's and 80's. There were massive failures in Andrew with this kind of construction. I expect the same if we get Cat 3/4 winds. It will be ugly.

The codes are updated constantly. Florida currently uses the 2014 Florida building code. There is no such hibg as Miami-dade building codes anymore. They are state wide high velocity wind zones that were born out of the old Miami fade requirements.

That being said you are correct all older construction day mid 70,s to early 90s is very suspect

Probably best for the discussion thread and not the model thread.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

It's not buying the Euro Charleston track, which is a good thing I guess.

Didn't buy euro's loop yesterday either. More uncertainty. Gonna have to wait till 0z I guess.

The EC run loop was the cane not getting picked up by the trough,GFS run above shows again on its run interaction with the trough, its as simple as that.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It's not buying the Euro Charleston track, which is a good thing I guess.

Didn't buy euro's loop yesterday either. More uncertainty. Gonna have to wait till 0z I guess.

The EC run loop was the cane not getting picked up by the trough,GFS run above shows again on its run interaction with the trough, its as simple as that.

I thought the ECMWF was showing more interaction with the trough and the GFS was not. Am I wrong?

[Vdogg]

It's not buying the Euro Charleston track, which is a good thing I guess.

Didn't buy euro's loop yesterday either. More uncertainty. Gonna have to wait till 0z I guess.

The EC run loop was the cane not getting picked up by the trough,GFS run above shows again on its run interaction with the trough, its as simple as that.

EC had a stronger trough, gfs has a weaker trough. The trough is what pulls Matt Northeast up the coast, without that it's OTS and does the loop de loop.

[Vdogg]

Didn't buy euro's loop yesterday either. More uncertainty. Gonna have to wait till 0z I guess.

The EC run loop was the cane not getting picked up by t. That's the difference between the models so far.
I thought the ECMWF was showing more interaction with the trough and the GFS was not. Am I wrong?

he trough,GFS run above shows again on its run interaction with the trough, its as simple as that.

You're right. Trough interaction is what pulls Matt north in the EC. The EC usually picks up on trends before gfs. Need to wait for 0z run to verify. Storm is faster, which both models see. Now it's a race to see if Matt catches the trough in time

[Alyono]

both GFDL and HWRF have shifted west. GFDL inland, HWRF still narrow miss, but it brings hurricane winds to more areas

[Ken711]

both GFDL and HWRF have shifted west. GFDL inland, HWRF still narrow miss, but it brings hurricane winds to more areas

Do they show the looping motion later in the track?

[dukeblue219]

both GFDL and HWRF have shifted west. GFDL inland, HWRF still narrow miss, but it brings hurricane winds to more areas

HWRF at 18z looks substantially more threatening to the SE coast since it stays offshore. Runs the whole way from Miami to Wilmington about 50 miles offshore with pressures in the 940s. The GFDL lands, but probably has minimal impact to GA, SC, and NC. Of course, all that really shows is that the impact of this storm will be determined by small deviations in path that cannot be predicted with any certainty.

[dukeblue219]

both GFDL and HWRF have shifted west. GFDL inland, HWRF still narrow miss, but it brings hurricane winds to more areas

Do they show the looping motion later in the track?

18z GFDL does, 18z HWRF looks like it doesn't. They're both really too short-term to tell -- that "loop" would be at the far extreme of what these models can forecast.

[RL3AO]

Hey now you guys get a new run of the HRRR every hour. Model shifting watch * 24

[WeatherEmperor]

both GFDL and HWRF have shifted west. GFDL inland, HWRF still narrow miss, but it brings hurricane winds to more areas

Do they show the looping motion later in the track?

The 18z GFDL has a SE motion at the end of the run...perhaps an indication that it wants to begin a loop.




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[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Didn't buy euro's loop yesterday either. More uncertainty. Gonna have to wait till 0z I guess.

The EC run loop was the cane not getting picked up by the trough,GFS run above shows again on its run interaction with the trough, its as simple as that.

EC had a stronger trough, gfs has a weaker trough. The trough is what pulls Matt Northeast up the coast, without that it's OTS and does the loop de loop.

The models showing the loop are missing connection with trough and looping off the SE coast. Could a pro-met to weight in here.

[jlauderdal]

Hey now you guys get a new run of the HRRR every hour. Model shifting watch * 24

yep...every wobble, every rain band thoroughly analyzed..nowcast by the hour

[terrapintransit]

I could see models shifting back farther north again like they were before this whole loop scenario unfolded. Thinking the models are underestimating the trough pulling it more north due to how strong the ridge. Adding Nicole into the blender is also probably a factor confusing the models even more. Just my opinons though here...

both GFDL and HWRF have shifted west. GFDL inland, HWRF still narrow miss, but it brings hurricane winds to more areas

Do they show the looping motion later in the track?

The 18z GFDL has a SE motion at the end of the run...perhaps an indication that it wants to begin a loop.




Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[Vdogg]

The EC run loop was the cane not getting picked up by the trough,GFS run above shows again on its run interaction with the trough, its as simple as that.

EC had a stronger trough, gfs has a weaker trough. The trough is what pulls Matt Northeast up the coast, without that it's OTS and does the loop de loop.

The models showing the loop are missing connection with trough and looping off the SE coast. Could a pro-met to weight in here.

I think we agree here and might not be understanding eachother. Both models show a trough. Euro shows a stronger trough AND a faster storm and Matthew is pulled up the coast and pushed out to sea. Gfs shows more westward motion at the beginning of it's run and is therefore slower overall. As a result it misses the trough and loops back. I'm not saying the Euro is absolutely correct, I'm just saying it tends to pick up on changes faster than the gfs and it bares watching. Gfs didn't follow this trend, so 0z is gonna be important for SEVA and NC.