ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

4 run trend

[HURRICANELONNY]

Is there a radar loop available yet too see matthews eye

[tolakram]

[TheStormExpert]

What is the strength in pressure when it makes landfall in Port St. Lucie on the 18z GFS?

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS 30 hours, slightly west and closer to Palm Beach County than the 12Z. Looks slightly faster which could explain it ending up slightly further west:

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[HurricaneFrances04]

Landfall at 2 am Friday morning, according to 18Z GFS. Palm Beach County definitely in the southern eyewall.

[stormreader]

Yeah looks like the models have shifted west a good amount comparing the spaghetti from 06z until now. I think NHC nudges slightly west.

They really need to include dade in the hurricane warning. Agree on W shift.

Totally agree. Slight west shifts bringing it closer to S Fl. Even without landfall there, may be close enough for hurricane force winds.

[swampgator92]

This is horrific run. Pretty much the entire coast of Florida from Palm Beach County to Jacksonville will be raked with Cat 1/2 winds at a minimum and possibly 3/4 if Matthew strengthens and comes in as a high end Cat 4. We are talking about areas that have never experienced winds greater than Cat 1/2 in north of Cape Canaveral with inferior building codes compared to South Florida.

We are going to look at a $100 Billion + damage event if this track verifies. Probably the most expensive storm in history.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

It's not buying the Euro Charleston track, which is a good thing I guess.

[Vdogg]

Looks like it's getting captured by the trough. May ride up NC

Edit: NVM

[Wakeknight]

north of Cape Canaveral with inferior building codes compared to South Florida.

Just as an FYI all of Florida is subject to the same building codes. The high velocity wind codes are state wide and are applicable to all structures within the specific proximity of the coastline; not just south Florida.

[RL3AO]

Having the center nearly over Jacksonville could make a huge difference with surge on the NE side. A lot more strong onshore winds.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Looks like GFS still wants to pull it OTS way sooner than Euro. Hr 84 starts to make an ESE move.

[Vdogg]

It's not buying the Euro Charleston track, which is a good thing I guess.

Didn't buy euro's loop yesterday either. More uncertainty. Gonna have to wait till 0z I guess.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

This GFS run is very close to track of the official NHC track.

[jdjaguar]

Having the center nearly over Jacksonville could make a huge difference with surge on the NE side. A lot more strong onshore winds.

That's what I'm worried about
Low tide for me normally means mud

Low tide is 8:30

It's already running 2/3 ft higher

Where did u see center over Jax?

[swampgator92]

Just as an FYI all of Florida is subject to the same building codes. The high velocity wind codes are state wide and are applicable to all structures within the specific proximity of the coastline; not just south Florida.

The codes were strengthened a lot after Hurricane Andrew but they are still not as strong as the Miami-Dade codes and any construction pre-1992 is VERY weak relatively especially the stuff built in the 70's and 80's. There were massive failures in Andrew with this kind of construction. I expect the same if we get Cat 3/4 winds. It will be ugly.