ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

Yeah looks like the models have shifted west a good amount comparing the spaghetti from 06z until now. I think NHC nudges slightly west.

[chris_fit]

Guys it's sw of track

It's SW of THAT Track - THat is no longer the most up to date track.... check NHC Site for latest track. I believe we get a new one every 3 hours now.

[SFLcane]

Yeah looks like the models have shifted west a good amount comparing the spaghetti from 06z until now. I think NHC nudges slightly west.

They really need to include dade in the hurricane warning. Agree on W shift.

[Vdogg]

Is it just me or do the models appear to be starting a slight bend back north again after NC?

Yea I was referring to the loop back scenario after exiting FL.

Oh. you mean #FL-2! I got it now,

Yes. Models are shifting North. I think this comes right up across Hatteras and Outer Banks. Faster storm plus stronger trough. 18z gfs should be telling. They really need to start running the euro more than twice a day though.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Is it just me or do the models appear to be starting a slight bend back north again after NC?

Oh. you mean #FL-2! I got it now,

Yes. Models are shifting North. I think this comes right up across Hatteras and Outer Banks. Faster storm plus stronger trough. 18z gfs should be telling. They really need to start running the euro more than twice a day though.

Oh crude, everyone up here is now letting their guard down. I hope we are still in the clear north of Hatteras.

[terrapintransit]

This is just absolutely insane how many times they have gone back and forth like this. What a wiper effect!

Is it just me or do the models appear to be starting a slight bend back north again after NC?

Oh. you mean #FL-2! I got it now,

Yes. Models are shifting North. I think this comes right up across Hatteras and Outer Banks. Faster storm plus stronger trough. 18z gfs should be telling. They really need to start running the euro more than twice a day though.

[hcane27]

Last 4 of the ECMWF

[Raebie]

I need Xanax. My daughter has decided to stay in Wilmington based on the last series of runs.

[KBBOCA]

12Z GFS

Just catching up on a few hours of posts... and the 12 Z models.

GOOD HEAVENS. That is some nightmare scenario. Treasure Coast / Space Coast / JAX / Orlando / Savannah / Charleston all with major impacts

PLUS the loop and the storm hitting FL a 2nd time and getting into the Gulf?

Utterly unbelievable. Gotta pray something changes...

[tolakram]

GFS 18z init

[chris_fit]

18Z GFS Running

[tolakram]

Remember, pressure on these non full res plots is higher than actual surface values.

[tolakram]

972mb, a little weaker than last run and a little faster.

[tolakram]

[HurricaneFrances04]

Boy, that WNW motion over Andros was scary. Looks to turn more northerly at 24 hours.

[gatorcane]

Wow we may have another slight west shift here on the 18Z GFS, also looks to move it slightly faster

[HurricaneFrances04]

Landfall. St Lucie County.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Landfall. St Lucie County.

Since it is slightly faster it is even closer to Palm Beach county than the 12Z.

[lando]

Few more runs and gfs will be landfall in Wpb