ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7101 Postby ronyan » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:45 pm

It's doing sort of a half loop this run, not all the way back to FL.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7102 Postby sandy18 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:46 pm

tolakram wrote:Better look at the entire coastal run. Will copy images.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783736684336803841



Is this new? Does it mean NC is still in the zone
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7103 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:47 pm

I don't think it is new, but NC is not entirely out of the woods yet.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7104 Postby Portastorm » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:49 pm

:uarrow:

The above image is from a tweet from a pro met. It is a computer model run and NOT the official NHC forecast. Please do not draw any conclusions from it other than considering it a tool in the toolbox for forecasters.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7105 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:49 pm

sandy18 wrote:
tolakram wrote:Better look at the entire coastal run. Will copy images.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783736684336803841



Is this new? Does it mean NC is still in the zone


Yes, this is from the latest ECMWF (Euro) run. This is brand new.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7106 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:55 pm

Still holding together, moving NE

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7107 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:00 pm

NC certainly far from out of the risk zone, you only have to look how far west the models came from 72hrs ago to see how much of ashift can happen. I happen think this time round the trough will be a little sharper than expected and lift it up further up the coast than the models showed this morning, ECM looks reasonable, storm is starting to shear out quite badly by 96hrs as well.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7108 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:07 pm

End of the run, still going.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7109 Postby meriland23 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:07 pm

What does Euro suggest the intensity will be at (MB) in 48 hours?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7110 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:13 pm

meriland23 wrote:What does Euro suggest the intensity will be at (MB) in 48 hours?


I don't know, everything I look at has MSLP which is usually higher than surface pressure. 947mb on approach to Florida but it will be lower than that.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7111 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:20 pm

Euro looks like only model with the out to sea idea..for now...Its been known to be right before.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7112 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:23 pm

:uarrow: NHC track on the east side of guidance again.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7113 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:24 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Euro looks like only model with the out to sea idea..for now...Its been known to be right before.

Image


Euro came ashore/scraped in Fl in last run, I believe.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7114 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:27 pm

otowntiger wrote:

Looks like the local NWS office will need to bump up the wind forecast- right now they show Orlando downtown and points east with strong ts winds gusts to 70. May be worse than that in this scenario.


Yes GFS model even worse for Orlando - about 30 miles west of Euro track at 12z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7115 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:29 pm

WPBWeather wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Euro looks like only model with the out to sea idea..for now...Its been known to be right before.

Image


Euro came ashore/scraped in Fl in last run, I believe.


Yea I was referring to the loop back scenario after exiting FL.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7116 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:30 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
WPBWeather wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Euro looks like only model with the out to sea idea..for now...Its been known to be right before.

Image


Euro came ashore/scraped in Fl in last run, I believe.


Yea I was referring to the loop back scenario after exiting FL.


Oh. you mean #FL-2! I got it now, :)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7117 Postby terrapintransit » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:32 pm

Is it just me or do the models appear to be starting a slight bend back north again after NC?




WPBWeather wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
WPBWeather wrote:
Euro came ashore/scraped in Fl in last run, I believe.


Yea I was referring to the loop back scenario after exiting FL.


Oh. you mean #FL-2! I got it now, :)
Last edited by terrapintransit on Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7118 Postby lando » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:32 pm

What do the ensembles look like
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7119 Postby lando » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:37 pm

Guys it's sw of track


Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7120 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:42 pm

:uarrow: NHC on east side of model guidance - look for track to be nudged west at 5.
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