ATL: MATTHEW - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
ronyan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 791
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:46 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7101 Postby ronyan » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:45 pm

It's doing sort of a half loop this run, not all the way back to FL.
0 likes   
Top
sandy18
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:38 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7102 Postby sandy18 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:46 pm

tolakram wrote:Better look at the entire coastal run. Will copy images.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783736684336803841



Is this new? Does it mean NC is still in the zone
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7103 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:47 pm

I don't think it is new, but NC is not entirely out of the woods yet.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7104 Postby Portastorm » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:49 pm

:uarrow:

The above image is from a tweet from a pro met. It is a computer model run and NOT the official NHC forecast. Please do not draw any conclusions from it other than considering it a tool in the toolbox for forecasters.
4 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7105 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:49 pm

sandy18 wrote:
tolakram wrote:Better look at the entire coastal run. Will copy images.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783736684336803841



Is this new? Does it mean NC is still in the zone


Yes, this is from the latest ECMWF (Euro) run. This is brand new.
3 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7106 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:55 pm

Still holding together, moving NE

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7107 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:00 pm

NC certainly far from out of the risk zone, you only have to look how far west the models came from 72hrs ago to see how much of ashift can happen. I happen think this time round the trough will be a little sharper than expected and lift it up further up the coast than the models showed this morning, ECM looks reasonable, storm is starting to shear out quite badly by 96hrs as well.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7108 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:07 pm

End of the run, still going.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7109 Postby meriland23 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:07 pm

What does Euro suggest the intensity will be at (MB) in 48 hours?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7110 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:13 pm

meriland23 wrote:What does Euro suggest the intensity will be at (MB) in 48 hours?


I don't know, everything I look at has MSLP which is usually higher than surface pressure. 947mb on approach to Florida but it will be lower than that.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7111 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:20 pm

Euro looks like only model with the out to sea idea..for now...Its been known to be right before.

Image
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7112 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:23 pm

:uarrow: NHC track on the east side of guidance again.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
WPBWeather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 535
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:33 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7113 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:24 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Euro looks like only model with the out to sea idea..for now...Its been known to be right before.

Image


Euro came ashore/scraped in Fl in last run, I believe.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7114 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:27 pm

otowntiger wrote:

Looks like the local NWS office will need to bump up the wind forecast- right now they show Orlando downtown and points east with strong ts winds gusts to 70. May be worse than that in this scenario.


Yes GFS model even worse for Orlando - about 30 miles west of Euro track at 12z.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7115 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:29 pm

WPBWeather wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Euro looks like only model with the out to sea idea..for now...Its been known to be right before.

Image


Euro came ashore/scraped in Fl in last run, I believe.


Yea I was referring to the loop back scenario after exiting FL.
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
User avatar
WPBWeather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 535
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:33 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7116 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:30 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
WPBWeather wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Euro looks like only model with the out to sea idea..for now...Its been known to be right before.

Image


Euro came ashore/scraped in Fl in last run, I believe.


Yea I was referring to the loop back scenario after exiting FL.


Oh. you mean #FL-2! I got it now, :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
terrapintransit
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 275
Age: 50
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 8:08 pm
Location: Williamsport, Pa

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7117 Postby terrapintransit » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:32 pm

Is it just me or do the models appear to be starting a slight bend back north again after NC?




WPBWeather wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
WPBWeather wrote:
Euro came ashore/scraped in Fl in last run, I believe.


Yea I was referring to the loop back scenario after exiting FL.


Oh. you mean #FL-2! I got it now, :)
Last edited by terrapintransit on Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Aaron
Top
lando
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:44 am
Location: Tampa

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7118 Postby lando » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:32 pm

What do the ensembles look like
0 likes   
Top
lando
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:44 am
Location: Tampa

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7119 Postby lando » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:37 pm

Guys it's sw of track


Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7120 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:42 pm

:uarrow: NHC on east side of model guidance - look for track to be nudged west at 5.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 4 guests