ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

It's surprising to an amateur like me that Jamaica is not in the cone. They are under a hurricane warning of course, but people tend to focus on the cone. I wonder if this will change at 11:00 am...

Because as this point it's forecast to stay away from Jamaica but impacts of a cat 4/5 spread well away from the center

[Blown Away]

I agree with some comments that the ridge (at least low level) has built in with some pretty steady ESE winds here. One thing I am wondering. Do we believe the Euro's NNE movement out of the Caribbean? I wonder if the Euro didn't show that, it would be even closer to Florida and the SE US went it turns it NW in the Bahamas?

I agree, you smooth out that tug to the NE and track may be farther W once Matt begins that NW to NNW journey up off Carolina coast...

[pgoss11]

While I understand the majority of posters here are from Florida..lets not forget that further westward adjustments would probably be worse for much more of the eastern seaboard. Everyone should have their plan in place and stay informed.

[OntarioEggplant]

You know I think this is the longest I've ever seen a pinhole eye last in a hurricane this strong.

[HurricaneEric]

While I understand the majority of posters here are from Florida..lets not forget that further westward adjustments would probably be worse for much more of the eastern seaboard. Everyone should have their plan in place and stay informed.

As well as the places that'll have the immediate effects (Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas). Westward trends will affect plenty more people, unfortunately.

[toad strangler]

You know I think this is the longest I've ever seen a pinhole eye last in a hurricane this strong.

It's not a pin hole. I think latest was a 12 x 16 nautical mile elliptical. Ragged.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/782585084205490176

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

While I understand the majority of posters here are from Florida..lets not forget that further westward adjustments would probably be worse for much more of the eastern seaboard. Everyone should have their plan in place and stay informed.

A very good point.

[La Sirena]

I'm absolutely baffled at the continuing westward movement. Sure, I'm a newbie, lol, but Matthew seems to have a mind all his own regarding direction. This is crazy.

Just need to keep a check on this link

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

Many thanks GCane! I've been watching these steering maps with interest. The ever changing conditions and slow movement is fairly unnerving. Hope all are prepared. First thoughts go out to Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica.

[Evil Jeremy]

14:15z visual in, Matthew still maintaing a West heading, riding along 14N. It's been three hours now, and recon is backing up the satellite's story. 11am track and discussion should be fascinating.

[Lighthousewatch28]

Could the coast of South Carolina feel hurricane effects?

[northjaxpro]

Levi Cowan's tweet message is as ominous as it can get for Jamaica unfortunately.

[Rail Dawg]

14:15z visual in, Matthew still maintaing a West heading, riding along 14N. It's been three hours now, and recon is backing up the satellite's story. 11am track and discussion should be fascinating.

You're right. It headed NW but for 3 hours now due W.

Very interesting update coming...

[robbielyn]

It's quite possible the center is performing some sort of trochoidal oscillation (similar to yesterday) embedded within the larger-scale NW flow. If that's the case, the short-term motion will take on a more eastward and northward component later today. The recent dip to the south would support this theory, however, by no means am I sure this is happening. The longer this westerly motion lasts (say a 3-5 more hours), the more unlikely it is that this is part of a trochoidal oscillation.

Edit: For those wondering what a trochoidal oscillation looks like in a TC, here is a classic example from Hurricane Wilma (2005):

I disagree with this as of current sat images. i saw yesterday 's cyclonic loop which was quite clear it was doing. this is still stair stepping.

[pgoss11]

Could the coast of South Carolina feel hurricane effects?

It's too early to tell that for now. Our meteorologist in Charleston said the minimal conditions we would see are breezy rainy conditions with coastal flooding and beach erosion. That's the minimum. If the storm tracks more westward then things could be much worse, but can't say that for now.

[Evil Jeremy]

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 74.6W AT 02/1500Z

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

New track shows Matthew hitting 75W tomorrow, followed by a NNE track.

5 day point is NNW of last advisory.

[jlauderdal]

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 74.6W AT 02/1500Z

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

New track shows Matthew hitting 75W tomorrow, followed by a NNE track.

5 day point is NNW of last advisory.

west at 3 knots isnt going to send it racing to jamiaca..thats for sure

[tolakram]

Hurricane sector visible, since it refuses to move north into the better loop.

I think the best directional descriptor is 'near stationary'

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[Nimbus]

The diversity in the model tracks is due to an intentional compartmentalization.
Very similar to the static Bam suite models that breakout current steering by layer.
Very similar to how very good chess players practice different opening and middle games by using different chess programs.

One thing that probably needs saying is that if the probability of a fine line track is about equal over a wider swath, it may make sense to run the track closer to populated areas that will soon be affected. Preparation and evacuation forethought should be part of everyone's end game.

[toad strangler]

yeah 3mph is just inching along. Nearly STAT.I suspect that a real N component slides in here pretty soon along with an increase in overall speed.