ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CaribJam]

With the current wnw or nw movement of Matthew, what is the possibility that Jamaica will be in the NHC cone again?

[KWT]

With the current wnw or nw movement of Matthew, what is the possibility that Jamaica will be in the NHC cone again?

Hard to know but every bit of westward longitude this gains the chance of Jamaica getting back into the cone increases.

[La Sirena]

I'm absolutely baffled at the continuing westward movement. Sure, I'm a newbie, lol, but Matthew seems to have a mind all his own regarding direction. This is crazy.

[HurricaneEric]

But you see now the real possibility of an entrance into the extreme SE GOM near Key West and a run up the West Coast.

If I had a penny for every time you've said this the past week or so...

On a serious note though, I don't see this getting much west of POSSIBLY a landfall somewhere on the east coast of FL.

[northjaxpro]

With the current wnw or nw movement of Matthew, what is the possibility that Jamaica will be in the NHC cone again?

If the west movement continues into tonight, Jamaica will most likely be back in the cone.

[Evil Jeremy]

Matthew still jogging westward, latest recon pass.

13:34:00Z 13.950N 74.567W 696.3 mb
(~ 20.56 inHg) 2,676 meters
(~ 8,780 feet) 945.2 mb
(~ 27.91 inHg

Matthew will soon cross 75W. Can't help but think the west trends continue today. While I personally don't think this will get into the GOM..it is possible landfall would be farther south down the SE coast.

But you see now the real possibility of an entrance into the extreme SE GOM near Key West and a run up the West Coast.

As it stands, not one model (save for the BAMs) take this further west of Andros Island.

[GCANE]

I'm absolutely baffled at the continuing westward movement. Sure, I'm a newbie, lol, but Matthew seems to have a mind all his own regarding direction. This is crazy.

Just need to keep a check on this link

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[GCANE]

[LarryWx]

Matthew still jogging westward, latest recon pass.

13:34:00Z 13.950N 74.567W 696.3 mb
(~ 20.56 inHg) 2,676 meters
(~ 8,780 feet) 945.2 mb
(~ 27.91 inHg

Matthew will soon cross 75W. Can't help but think the west trends continue today. While I personally don't think this will get into the GOM..it is possible landfall would be farther south down the SE coast.

But you see now the real possibility of an entrance into the extreme SE GOM near Key West and a run up the West Coast.

Yep, I agree that the Keys and west coast of FL are by no means out of the woods based on current movement. By the way, the 0Z Euro's 24 hour position (8PM EDT Sun) is (a hair east of) due north of the current recon based position by about a full degree of latitude (near 15.0N, 74.5W).
In addition, the NHC 2PM EDT progged position is at 14.6N, 74.5W. So, he has already made it to the 2PM EDT longitude and 0.6 degrees further south than that forecast point.

[NDG]

Miami's 12z sounding shows 500H at 589dm, it was forecasted on last night's GFS to be at 587dm. Key was forecasted to be 586dm this morning sounding showed it at 588dm. So ridge is definitely holding stronger to the north of Matthew, at least this morning.

[Blown Away]

I would argue a Westward jog/movement in last few frames...

[KWT]

Miami's 12z sounding shows 500H at 589dm, it was forecasted on last night's GFS to be at 587dm. Key was forecasted to be 586dm this morning sounding showed it at 588dm. So ridge is definitely holding stronger to the north of Matthew, at least this morning.

Very interesting, that kind of backs up the idea that the weakness isn't doing as much as was expected and if the ridging is really 2dm stronger than progged that would go some way to explain how this system is still getting a bit further west.

That recon obs suggests short term track is due west (maybe even a hint of slight south of west...but I'm not reading too much into that!)

[nativefloridian]

I'm absolutely baffled at the continuing westward movement. Sure, I'm a newbie, lol, but Matthew seems to have a mind all his own regarding direction. This is crazy.

Just need to keep a check on this link

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

From what I see...the ridge keeps building to the west. Not good for FL if that trend continues or stays in place and/or doesn't back up....IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 13:34:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°58'N 74°32'W (13.9667N 74.5333W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 330° to 150° (NNW to SSE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles
RAGGED EYEWALL

[CrazyC83]

The irony right now: we WANT 98L to form, and ideally become Hurricane Nicole, as long as it stays away from Bermuda. That may be the only thing that prevents an east coast landfall...

[gatorcane]

I agree with some comments that the ridge (at least low level) has built in with some pretty steady ESE winds here. One thing I am wondering. Do we believe the Euro's NNE movement out of the Caribbean? I wonder if the Euro didn't show that, it would be even closer to Florida and the SE US went it turns it NW in the Bahamas?

[mrbagyo]

[miamijaaz]

It's surprising to an amateur like me that Jamaica is not in the cone. They are under a hurricane warning of course, but people tend to focus on the cone. I wonder if this will change at 11:00 am...

[hipshot]

I'm absolutely baffled at the continuing westward movement. Sure, I'm a newbie, lol, but Matthew seems to have a mind all his own regarding direction. This is crazy.

Just need to keep a check on this link

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

From looking at that steering map, I don't get a warm/fuzzy feeling about missing the gulf!! Espicially with the high
strenthening and the low backing off to the NE.

[nativefloridian]

It's surprising to an amateur like me that Jamaica is not in the cone. They are under a hurricane warning of course, but people tend to focus on the cone. I wonder if this will change at 11:00 am...