ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Too bad these weather models use a serial process which is dependent on all the supporting assumptions. They might have to purge the LIFO "stack" and make major adjustments to the track.

[Airboy]

The biggest change the last couple of hours is that it has expanded in size I think and looks more like a hurricane, like it's gathering itself before a move to the north.

[Kazmit]

The NHC expects Matthew to weaken at a very steady pace.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 13.9N 74.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.6N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.6N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.8N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 22.6N 74.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 25.5N 75.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 28.0N 76.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

[northjaxpro]

It looks to me that the eye is looking tightly wound again. Matthew moving NW definitely.

[NDG]

I would say that Matthew if anything has been moving more WNW than NW during the night, now is when it seems like it started a NW heading.

[NDG]

NOAA is not doing center fixes. The purpose of this flight is NOT to fix the center

Also, any word from Colombia? That rainband has remained over a normally dry area all day. I suspect the flooding is bad there

The good news is that area does not look very heavily populated, very sparse.

Colombian here (lurker since Patricia '15), reporting from Barranquilla.
Unfortunately, the Guajira region isn't that sparsely populated (almost one million people), and there's still the threat of rain elsewhere (we've had constant on-off rain for about a day, and we're a good 200km from Riohacha). Not too many reports from the region, but the reports so far have been relatively benign (some damage due to wind in northern Guajira + flooding/high surf elsewhere, and one death due to drowning).
The region is pretty much flat, except for the sparsely-populated Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. There's the chance that some rivers coming down from the massif may overflow and threaten Santa Marta and Riohacha, though.
Now, if Matthew actually decides to turn south for good, it would hit several flat coastline towns, which are completely and utterly unprepared for a hurricane (and may even ignore the threat of Matthew until he's right on top of them). Matthew would most likely weaken a lot, since the Sierra Nevada's very tall (highest peak at 18700ft/5700m), but the surge and the wind would most certainly be deadly.
So, he better turn around right now...

I was talking about the little Peninsula Strip where they experienced the worst weather, not the whole Province.

[NDG]

Latest recon pass shows that Matthew is still pretty strong but pressure looks to have gone up a little bit.

110430 1407N 07418W 6973 02808 9672 +092 +082 096112 122 125 029 03
110500 1405N 07419W 6990 02719 9577 +117 +085 083095 106 130 027 03
110530 1404N 07419W 6963 02706 9510 +132 +089 070064 087 /// /// 03
110600 1402N 07419W 6958 02686 9471 +142 +095 067033 055 035 003 00
110630 1400N 07418W 6926 02715 9474 +127 +103 087012 021 034 002 03
110700 1358N 07418W 6980 02652 9471 +131 +110 238003 009 026 000 00
110730 1357N 07418W 6969 02676 9453 +158 +115 274030 036 024 001 03

[xironman]

Weaker puts it into the NW steering instead of N

[robbielyn]

it truly seems to be heading wnw still.

[AdamFirst]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 74.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

[NDG]

Recon reports that an outer eyewall is forming, so it has begun.

[Kazmit]

Looks NW to me (speed it up).

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[KWT]

Recon reports that an outer eyewall is forming, so it has begun.

Makes sense, especially when you consider how cloudy the eye became this morning.

[xironman]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 74.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

No way I am buying 150 mph sustained

[GeneratorPower]

We now have a blob of convection on the left getting big.

[robbielyn]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 74.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

brown said it was moving wnw with long term estimate NW at 320. when i watch it, it looks to me wnw heading toward middle of Jamaica instead ofeastern jamaica in the short term.

[KWT]

Looks NW to me (speed it up).

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Long term motion does seem to be NW. However as a EWRC maybe starting, recon will probably give us a better motion fix than eyeballing it. Short term motion looks like 300 to me.

[GCANE]

Any weakening will get Matthew into more of this type of steering with a gradual increase in forward speed later today.

[stormreader]

It looks to me that the eye is looking tightly wound again. Matthew moving NW definitely.

And watch for a possible continued W component in the Caribbean, not the due N path (which was the SHORT RANGE solution projected by major models. If this continues, as I speculated many days ago, Mathew may emerge near Key West and make a run up the Fl West Coast.

[northjaxpro]

Eyewall Replacement is ongoing currently. Earlier looked as the eye was contracting and I was deceived by cloud cover obsuring the eye on satellite imagery, thus the ragged appearance.

Matthew will also expand in size as he begins his poleward ascent as time progresses.