ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[brunota2003]

Frank:

I've seen mention it is where the trade winds and Matthew's circulation are meeting up, creating a convergence zone.

[Frank2]

Thanks - that makes sense...

[chaser1]

Perhaps, I'm guessing it might start gaining a slight bit more latitude during the next few hours. A few hours ago I was thinking perhaps reaching 75W right about at 15N. Either way though, providing that Matthew has yet to turn due north and is perhaps then moving on a NNW track, than the eye might get really close to the eastern edge of Jamaica.

So here's whats going to be interesting. You've got a EURO model run which is significantly west of its prior model run. This, coupled with Matthew's present track that has NOT been moving NNW per the last two NHC advisories and presently tracking between NW and WNW at this time. Given present motion and the suggestive reasoning by the EURO, I just cant see NHC simply assuming that an even sharper sudden NNE turn will definitely ensue, just to then bend Matthew's track after exiting the Caribbean back to the northwest. It seems pretty clear for at least the near term, there appears to be at least a little less weakening of the ridge north of Matthew and the only logical result would seem to be a small westward shift of Matthew's track by approx. 50 miles. Though not a radical change in track, this would imply a slight increased risk to South/Central Florida considering that we're still talking about a period of 72-96 hours from now and that other track swings either way are likely to occur. The other situation that NHC will have to grapple with is with regard to the type of Watches and/or Warnings that might need to be put up for those parts of Florida. A Major Hurricane possibly passing 100 or less miles from the coast does not allow nearly as much room for error as a distance of 200 miles. With a weak pressure field and fairly slow motion, the risk of a small left-hand jog while a deadly hurricane was anticipated to narrowly pass just east of a densely populated region, might cause very little warning or opportunity for people to make necessary emergency preparations or evacuations should such an unlikely set of circumstances suddenly occur.

I have to also think that any continuation of a more westward motion would only further enhance the risk for a landfall between South Carolina and North Carolina as well.

[GCANE]

Looks like Matthew maybe washing out a bit.
Sitting too long in one spot.

[stormreader]

As northjax and others have mentioned, Matthew appears to be going west of forecast. The 0z Euro's 24 hour forecast (for 8 PM EDT Sunday) is for him to be near 15.0N, 74.5W. But he is already to near 74.0W while still down near 13.8N! He's going to need to average a NNW heading over the next 16+ hours for this to get to near the Euro 24 hour forecast point. This is looking pretty unlikely as of now but it isn't impossible. We'll see.

Been saying for days that there would continue to be some sort of W component to Mathew's movement toward Cuba. But there is still time for the models to verify with that basically true N trajectory across Cuba and into the Bahamas. But let's see if Mathew doesn't end up quite a bit further west than projected.

[hiflyer]

Avila's 11pm discussion included this:

A very convenient SSMIS pass at 0006 UTC was helpful in locating the
eye of Matthew, and after a period of little or no motion, the
hurricane has apparently begun a north-northwest track at about 6
kt.

corrected and thanks!

[bamajammer4eva]

Avila's 5am discussion included this:

A very convenient SSMIS pass at 0006 UTC was helpful in locating the
eye of Matthew, and after a period of little or no motion, the
hurricane has apparently begun a north-northwest track at about 6
kt.

was 11 pm Brown did 5 am

[GCANE]

As northjax and others have mentioned, Matthew appears to be going west of forecast. The 0z Euro's 24 hour forecast (for 8 PM EDT Sunday) is for him to be near 15.0N, 74.5W. But he is already to near 74.0W while still down near 13.8N! He's going to need to average a NNW heading over the next 16+ hours for this to get to near the Euro 24 hour forecast point. This is looking pretty unlikely as of now but it isn't impossible. We'll see.

Been saying for days that there would continue to be some sort of W component to Mathew's movement toward Cuba. But there is still time for the models to verify with that basically true N trajectory across Cuba and into the Bahamas. But let's see if Mathew doesn't end up quite a bit further west than projected.

I think you are right.
Especially if Matthews weakens, current steering is practically due west.
Also the trough appears to be eroding.
Chances increasing for a track west of Jamaica IMHO.

[xironman]

INIT 02/0900Z 13.9N 74.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.6N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.6N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.8N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 22.6N 74.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 25.5N 75.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 28.0N 76.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

Doesn't hit 75 until after Cuba

[SouthernBreeze]

Wow, west of Jamaica - that would sure change the longer-term track!

[Nimbus]

Using only the 8 hour motion average Matttthew appears to be west of current thinking and making a Bee line for Kingston. I think once the models initialize with the new heading we may get an more accurate track finally.

[GCANE]

Current Steering

[GCANE]

Recon enroute

[abajan]

This makes me imagine...before the satellite era, how did people find out of incoming hurricanes?

Well sonny boy your mother and I had to get up on our rooftops and jump up to see if one was commin'.

There's an old book around here somewhere named Atlantic Hurricanes (by Gordon Dunn and Banner Miller, as I just ascertained from Amazon) in which I recall reading several years ago that people in the pre-satellite era knew how to read the clouds and sea, and could tell when a hurricane was about 400 miles away (or was it 4 days away?). They could also estimate how strong the hurricane was by the period between sea swells (the longer the period, the more intense the hurricane, or something like that). Also, there was something about if there was a long dry spell in the midst of the rainy season, that was thought to be indicative of an approaching storm. I think the book begins with the account of the recon plane which flew into Hurricane Janet when it was very powerful in the western Caribbean and was never heard from again.

[KWT]

Looking at the last couple of hours it does seem like a more true NW motion has started, of course any slight shifts westwards would keep the eye over water till Cuba.

Down the line its going to be mighty close run thing for the east coast...

ps, the eye is closing up.

[KWT]

06z GFS has a landfall, the run hits OBX and hard! Then directly up the coast.

I do note the NHC track suggests that bend to the west is now the favored solution

[GCANE]

Rain rate has dramatically dropped.
Will be very interesting to see what recon reports in terms of core temp.

[northjaxpro]

As I mentioned yesterday morning with the steering analysis, it looks like I ended up being correct in that the ridge looked stronger than anticipated. The nose of the ridge extends all the way to near the western end of Cuba looking at the most recent steering analysis.

Now, in theory, imo, it is a distinct possibility that Matthew could get as far west as 77 or 78 degrees Longitude before making a definitive poleward motion or any east of north motion. So, this could be in which we could have major implications. , some of which we have already discussed.

Just know that these changes can have potential HUGE implications down the road within the next 7 days, especially to all interests along the U.S.East Coast. Lots I on the table folks. NO ONE and I sincerity mean this, NO ONE can sound an all clear at this juncture!!!!.

[KWT]

Yep GCANE, interestingly this was about where alot of the global models weakened Matthew a few days back, wonder if that is now actually happening.

Also the eye structure has gone more or less so I think we are about to see a decent dip in strength, my gut would be it gets down to about 100-105kts in the next 12-18hrs before it picks up again.

[ObsessedMiami]

Just a question: the 5am NHC cone shows the edge impacting FL up around Cape Canaveral but the Storm 2k main graphic above the page shows it down around SFL and deeper into the peninsula. Why the difference?