2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Here is what the models are developing. NAVGEM and CMC strengthens this later after it passes the Marianas and brings it close to Tokyo. GFS rather weak into western Japan and EURO dissipates it in the P.I sea.

Next Monday, the GFS and the ECMWF-HiRes both bring another
tropical disturbance near the Marianas. Looks substantially like
this one, although of course the details are fuzzier at day 7.
Exact positioning of wind speed distributions and even the
circulation center are not possible at this time. Since this is
wet season, went ahead and put some scattered showers and mostly
cloudy skies in.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

00Z GFS sides with NAVGEM and CMC and stronger too...TS/TY into Tokyo.

[euro6208]

Super long range GFS has another typhoon threatening Japan...

Dropped also however GFS is now forecasting for 3 runs a powerful typhoon with every run shifting south to Luzon from Taiwan


.

[euro6208]

00Z GFS sides with NAVGEM and CMC and stronger too...TS/TY into Tokyo.

EURO hopping onto the wagon now has Aere down to 959 mb!...Big change from dissipation.

[1900hurricane]

It's been interesting to see the Western Pacific getting it done without an established monsoon trough for a couple of weeks now. Malakas, Megi, and now Chaba have all developed from easterly waves. The last monsoon trough setup was back when a weak reverse-oriented one spawned Meranti, 17W, and Rai.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM varies greatly on the system that's forecast to pass through the area. Still long way out.

Unfortunately, EURO and GFS dropped this system yet again.

[euro6208]

Very dangerous October.

GFS has for 3 runs a powerful typhoon forming in the P.I sea and churns it to Luzon. Each run shifting more south.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Wow. Cat 5 for Luzon?

[dexterlabio]

^GFS dropped this starting with today's 00z run. It just shows a disorganized wave now, although the GFS ensembles still show a recognizable cyclone..

[euro6208]

Even the EURO agrees on a powerful system in the timeframe but further north.

[1900hurricane]

Per my own personal calculations, Chaba has now pushed the season's ACE above 150*10^4 kt^2 as of 12Z.

[euro6208]

Now 99W.

99W THREAD

[dexterlabio]

Just learned that they are flying planes in the Atlantic to get the actual data from the atmosphere itself. I hope the planned recon missions in the WPAC next year will do stuff like that here as well. I'm more after determining the real-time environmental conditions and inputting the correct data to the global model runs. It will give us more time to prepare if we know days ahead if a certain system will impact a particular area.

If I may be allowed to get a bit political, I think it will be a wise investment for countries in the WPAC and SE Asian region if they help in funding future recon missions.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

JTWC and JMA usually do quite well in nailing the track there is no real obstacles like there is in the ATL.

[1900hurricane]

SSD put a floater window on an undesignated invest.

[mrbagyo]

weak llc is evident in that loop. It look sheared though

[dexterlabio]

^Which reminds me, any latest news regarding that "invest" in Taiwan back in August that had an impressive eye in radar and MW image? Someone posted a video when the invest made landfall and I think the winds were at least moderate TS force strength.. I doubt JMA will update to a TS post-season but I think there is more of a chance with JTWC for that.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM with an ominous looking Songda moving south of west towards the Marianas.



I don't usually trust the CMC in the vast WPAC but it also has a strong typhoon.



Hate posting these weak runs. Here is EURO with a 1001mb north of the Marianas.