ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3181 Postby fci » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:15 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Blown Away wrote:NHC 5pm Disco they hinted some confidence in long term track and the 11pm back to low confidence... My amateur assessment seems to think things have become more clear today...

Yep, I'd personally say that Florida dodged yet another bullet.

They must have forgotten to take out that last paragraph in the 11pm discussion. :lol:


There are still a couple models that show him approaching Florida. Reliable parts of the ensemble so with a level of uncertainty remaining they find it best to not sound the "all clear" just yet.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!

User avatar
ObsessedMiami
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 431
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: West Kendall, Fl

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3182 Postby ObsessedMiami » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:16 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Seriously!? With the storm expected to be over 200miles to the East at closest approach the NWS in Miami has TS Conditions Possible stated for Wednesday Night.



First of all, confidence is low in the 4-5 day path per NHC. Secondly, it's forecast to be a major hurricane with an expanded windfield. As it stands now, there is a 20% chance of TS winds per the cone as of 11pm TS windfield %'s. Seems like a prudent step to mention at this point the possibility.
Last edited by ObsessedMiami on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthernBreeze
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 284
Age: 68
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: SC/NC line- on the SC Coast

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3183 Postby SouthernBreeze » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:17 pm

Sure like to see him get above 15, then I might be convinced he's heading N
0 likes   
My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and not backed by sound meteorological data, and NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10165
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3184 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:17 pm

SFLcane wrote:For Florida impacts lets wait its north of cuba, personally I think all options are still on the table.


I was convinced NHC would have made big E shift in 5 day point today, but subtle @100 mile E shift... The 5 day point is only just east of @Vero on Thursday, that's a long way out... It seems the track has slowed today...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3185 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:18 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:Looks like he took a little jog west on sat loop


more like WNW


Actually when I step between 2:15 and 2:45, the eye seemed to move wsw, which might mean it's making another loop.
0 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3186 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:24 pm

It's doing trochoidal motion, i.e. it's making tiny loops as it moves forward in one general direction. If you smooth out the motion over at least a few hours or ideally over 6 hours or more you'll see the true motion. From my experience it seems to have started a true NNW motion as was forecast for the last few days anyway.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3187 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:25 pm

:uarrow: Btw S2K long-timers call this wobble watching. lol.
3 likes   

User avatar
latitude_20
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:46 am
Location: Tulum, Mexico
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3188 Postby latitude_20 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:26 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Seriously!? With the storm expected to be over 200miles to the East at closest approach the NWS in Miami has TS Conditions Possible stated for Wednesday Night.


Yes. It's too early to expect exactly where it will be in five days time, and NWS typically tries to hedge their bets. Many variables are in Matthew's path right now. I have friends just north of Canaveral who are topping off their preps.
Last edited by latitude_20 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3189 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:26 pm

Blown Away wrote:
SFLcane wrote:For Florida impacts lets wait its north of cuba, personally I think all options are still on the table.


I was convinced NHC would have made big E shift in 5 day point today, but subtle @100 mile E shift... The 5 day point is only just east of @Vero on Thursday, that's a long way out... It seems the track has slowed today...


I'm expecting a decent shift east should the 00z models (which I pray were not disrupted by the satellite outage) make another shift east, since that trend has been occurring all day.

On the flip side, GFS can go east, ECMWF west, UKMET south, and this perpetual cycle of model flipping may continue.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

WeatherHoon
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 131
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:12 am

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3190 Postby WeatherHoon » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:27 pm

It looks like Matthew is in the anaphase of cell mitosis lol.
3 likes   

User avatar
latitude_20
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:46 am
Location: Tulum, Mexico
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3191 Postby latitude_20 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:30 pm

WeatherHoon wrote:It looks like Matthew is in the anaphase of cell mitosis lol.


Lol, I'm stealing that one.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3192 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:31 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
SFLcane wrote:For Florida impacts lets wait its north of cuba, personally I think all options are still on the table.


I was convinced NHC would have made big E shift in 5 day point today, but subtle @100 mile E shift... The 5 day point is only just east of @Vero on Thursday, that's a long way out... It seems the track has slowed today...


I'm expecting a decent shift east should the 00z models (which I pray were not disrupted by the satellite outage) make another shift east, since that trend has been occurring all day.

On the flip side, GFS can go east, ECMWF west, UKMET south, and this perpetual cycle of model flipping may continue.


they likely were not affected. Plus, there were microwave imagery that was assimilated during the outage period
1 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1895
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3193 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:32 pm

ozonepete wrote::uarrow: Btw S2K long-timers call this wobble watching. lol.

Wobble watching is great sport!
1 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4773
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3194 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:32 pm

latitude_20 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Seriously!? With the storm expected to be over 200miles to the East at closest approach the NWS in Miami has TS Conditions Possible stated for Wednesday Night.


Yes. It's too early to expect exactly where it will be in five days time, and NWS typically tries to hedge their bets. Many variables are in Matthew's path right now. I have friends just north of Canaveral who are topping off their preps.

That forecast product may have been issued before this latest advisory. Nevertheless even with the new advisory TS conditions are possible. It's just that they're low and trending lower..
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3195 Postby sma10 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:33 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Blown Away wrote:NHC 5pm Disco they hinted some confidence in long term track and the 11pm back to low confidence... My amateur assessment seems to think things have become more clear today...

Yep, I'd personally say that Florida dodged yet another bullet.

They must have forgotten to take out that last paragraph in the 11pm discussion. :lol:


The nhc by nature is conservative. Would you really expect them to sound the "all-clear" 5 days in advance, especially when their forecasted position is within the historical 5 day error margin?

The NHC is not a chat board - the forecasters cannot come out after a model run and say "looks like a FISH!"; and then 6 hours later say "rut roh, trending West now!!"
6 likes   

BZSTORM
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 331
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:47 pm
Location: Placencia, Belize

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3196 Postby BZSTORM » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:56 pm

If Haiti does indeed become first landfall then going by how little information is on their premier news channel both web & facebook, I really hope their radio channels are explaining to the population how serious this storm is going to be.
This is from the ONLY Newsflash U could find relating to Haiti - time dated today 1.41pm
Haiti - FLASH : Matthew, Haiti in alert phase 1
01/10/2016 13:41:13

Haiti - FLASH : Matthew, Haiti in alert phase 1 The National Hurricane Center of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), informs that the category 4 hurricane Matthew, is located 615 km south of Port-au-Prince, with maximum sustained winds of 220 km/h, and is now moving south at 4 km/h.

"A faster motion toward the west should resume later today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Sunday, with northward motion expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti Sunday night and Monday," indicates for its part the NOAA.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

Haiti is currently in alert phase 1 (Orange Vigilance), there is a watch from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Mole Saint-Nicolas in the north-west.

For its part the National Meteorological Centre (CNM) of Haiti indicates "Matthew has a strong rainfall capacity ranging from 200 to 300mm in the plains and more than 300mm on the heights. These accumulations of rain during the passage of Hurricane Matthew from Sunday to Tuesday could cause severe flooding, important mudslides and of flash floods all over the country especially on the departments of South, of Nippes, Grande-Anse, South East and West."

The cirriform clouds continue to invade the country, warning signs generally, before a tropical cyclone. The wind is strengthening and sea conditions on the south coast are really chaotic.

The latest forecast path show the passage of the eye of Hurricane Matthew a little further East (closer to the extreme south western tip of Haiti). So the South region of the country is under the threat of Hurricane conditions and the rest of the country under storm conditions.

The SPGRD together with CNM and SEMANAH prohibits all cabotage operations in coastal areas in particular the country's southern coast and the Gulf of Gonâve until further notice.

HL/ HaitiLibre
http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-18786 ... ase-1.html

International news says Haitian's have been told to stock up on food and water, the mind boggles how people who live on mud biscuits are supposed to do that. I fear if Haiti gets hit with 40 inch of rain and hurricane winds we could be seeing a disaster as big as 2010 the earthquake. Can't help wishing the track would thread through the eye of the needle between Jamaica and Haiti. Since 2001 Cuba has excellent record for hurricane preparedness and evacuation of its citizens so that although property might be destroyed , lives are protected as best as possible.
Last edited by BZSTORM on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3197 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:56 pm

0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

stormreader

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3198 Postby stormreader » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:11 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
otowntiger wrote:Image
Wow! That is very strange.



That's pretty cool, it looks like Matthew has an unnamed conjoined twin or something. But I think that is causing more of an impediment than a support for further consolidation? I remember Haiyan in 2013 had this intensely deep feeder band around its CDO, but the one with Matthew looks more like a blob than a banding feature.

If that blob persists it could end up being the most important and destructive feature of the storm in terms of rainfall over parts of the Caribbean islands.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5850
Age: 42
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3199 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:13 pm

For those here talking about Florida being in the clear because it's not in the cone, just a reminder that the
cone is the -eye- margin of error, not the extent of winds--should the eye go into the western area of the cone it would still bring hurricane-force winds to Florida.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3200 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:14 pm

Just got a quick soaking from a weak storm rolling in off the Atlantic, could this be an indicator that the Bermuda High is holding strong or stronger than originally forecasted?
0 likes   


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests