ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

With the track gradually shifting further east with every new advisory every six hours you have to wonder why they still mention this?

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

[Blown Away]

NHC 5pm Disco they hinted some confidence in long term track and the 11pm back to low confidence... My amateur assessment seems to think things have become more clear today...

[SouthernBreeze]

right now slow is great!

I guess I should re-word that - although according to wxman, slow is better for storm staying off SE US coast. However, we all know there are much more damaging effects from a slow moving storm. Thoughts & prayers go out to all in Matt's path!

[Evil Jeremy]

With the track gradually shifting further east with every new advisory every six hours you have to wonder why they still mention this?

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

Because there is great uncertainty in the 4-5 day forecast. Just covering their bases knowing the situation may (though unlikely) change.


Yesterday, the models spent the day moving west. Today they spent the day moving east. Tomorrow may tell a different tale entirely. Let's wait and see.

[ObsessedMiami]

NWS Service Miami is listing Tropical Storm conditions possible for Miami on Wednesday night in their graphical forecast.

[TheStormExpert]

NHC 5pm Disco they hinted some confidence in long term track and the 11pm back to low confidence... My amateur assessment seems to think things have become more clear today...

Yep, I'd personally say that Florida dodged yet another bullet.

They must have forgotten to take out that last paragraph in the 11pm discussion.

[vbhoutex]

Would this impede the models in any way? This thing looks massive.

Don't think so. As I posted earlier, I've seen this before in the northwest Pacific with super typhoons and it eventually gets absorbed or fades away. And during the time it was there the models didn't really change in their forecasts. The only thing I do remember was that it impeded strengthening while it was still sizeable.

IIRC when I have seen this in the ATL Basin it seems to portend a turn, usually sharp, somewhere near that direction or at least an almost stop and then turn almost 90 degrees toward it and that does seem to be possible now. Still not definitive though. Still find it very strange that Matthew has been having this "tag along" huge convective area for so long and somehow managed to continue with his RI unimpeded. Anyone care to comment on that?

[SFLcane]

For Florida impacts lets wait its north of cuba, personally I think all options are still on the table.

[ObsessedMiami]

NHC 5pm Disco they hinted some confidence in long term track and the 11pm back to low confidence... My amateur assessment seems to think things have become more clear today...

Yep, I'd personally say that Florida dodged yet another bullet.

They must have forgotten to take out that last paragraph in the 11pm discussion.

Again, until it moves firmly N or NNW for a time, I won't say any bullets dodged yet.

[Frank2]

The northward track has been consistently forecast all week - more like a November pattern but thankful, considering the system...

[TheStormExpert]

Seriously!? With the storm expected to be over 200miles to the East at closest approach the NWS in Miami has TS Conditions Possible stated for Wednesday Night.

[dexterlabio]

Wow! That is very strange.

That's pretty cool, it looks like Matthew has an unnamed conjoined twin or something. But I think that is causing more of an impediment than a support for further consolidation? I remember Haiyan in 2013 had this intensely deep feeder band around its CDO, but the one with Matthew looks more like a blob than a banding feature.

[Hurricaneman]

Would this impede the models in any way? This thing looks massive.

Don't think so. As I posted earlier, I've seen this before in the northwest Pacific with super typhoons and it eventually gets absorbed or fades away. And during the time it was there the models didn't really change in their forecasts. The only thing I do remember was that it impeded strengthening while it was still sizeable.

IIRC when I have seen this in the ATL Basin it seems to portend a turn, usually sharp, somewhere near that direction or at least an almost stop and then turn almost 90 degrees toward it and that does seem to be possible now. Still not definitive though. Still find it very strange that Matthew has been having this "tag along" huge convective area for so long and somehow managed to continue with his RI unimpeded. Anyone care to comment on that?

Notable storms have had that convective blob. Someone mentioned Pali and don't forget about Haiyan so its not precedented for something like this to happen

[toad strangler]

NHC 5pm Disco they hinted some confidence in long term track and the 11pm back to low confidence... My amateur assessment seems to think things have become more clear today...

Yep, I'd personally say that Florida dodged yet another bullet.

They must have forgotten to take out that last paragraph in the 11pm discussion.

The cone represents an area that the EYE can be roaming .... If it ever went to the far right or left of it's boundary there would be harsh conditions WELL OUTSIDE OF THE CONE.

[GeneratorPower]

Would this impede the models in any way? This thing looks massive.

Don't think so. As I posted earlier, I've seen this before in the northwest Pacific with super typhoons and it eventually gets absorbed or fades away. And during the time it was there the models didn't really change in their forecasts. The only thing I do remember was that it impeded strengthening while it was still sizeable.

IIRC when I have seen this in the ATL Basin it seems to portend a turn, usually sharp, somewhere near that direction or at least an almost stop and then turn almost 90 degrees toward it and that does seem to be possible now. Still not definitive though. Still find it very strange that Matthew has been having this "tag along" huge convective area for so long and somehow managed to continue with his RI unimpeded. Anyone care to comment on that?

It's possible this is a legit new phenomenon never before seen. It may resemble some WPAC systems but it could be different. We tend to think we've seen and catalogued every weather phenomenon but we as humans should always consider the possibility that something is new.

[psyclone]

the northern end of the track did bump east a good bit. Now east of Eleuthera when it had been right on top of them for more than one run and now a good ways east of Abaco when earlier runs had been just east of there.

[bahamaswx]

Eye moving west again. Probably another cyclonic loop in store.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like he took a little jog west on sat loop

[psyclone]

This new track also reduces land interaction and avoids the most mountainous terrain of eastern cuba. it will be interesting to see if it can thread this needle...either way major impacts for that region are incoming...

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like he took a little jog west on sat loop

more like WNW