ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

After I posted the latest GFS run on Facebook's GTMO Naval Base Page, a personnel replied to my post that during the past few years they have been replacing older concrete homes with wooden structures, many people not happy about it. I am sure it has to do with Military Budget cuts. Not smart for sure.

The wood frame home is making a comeback even in S FL. Extensive testing has proven that wood when used with prescribed fasteners s in all the right spots outperforms concrete block. Much more flexible with out old world construction problems of the past.

I don't believe that for nothing in the world, so how come buildings are not build with wood frames? The truth is that they build with wood because is cheaper.
If I had the money to build a house on the beach in S FL it would be on concrete stilts and 100% concrete, even the roof.

id also add rebar every few inches to reinforce the concrete.

[psyclone]

One consistent theme of Matthew since inception (along with other storms this year) is persistent deep convection well east of the center capable of producing extremely heavy rain. Regardless of subsequent fluctuations in the future track the excessive rain looks to be on a collision course with Hispaniola. Add in upslope orographic enhancement for the south facing mountains (even the Tiburon peninsula is very mountainous) and this is going to cause trouble, even for areas well east of sustained high winds. Hermine dumped a foot and half of rain on me despite never coming closer than about 120 miles and that was without any orographic squeeze.

[Aric Dunn]

latest radar from recon.. still no clear signs of a ERC>

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-3-.kmz

[chaser1]

Okay, well THERE'S something I've never seen before??? Look at the area of detached convection well to the east of the storms core. This persistent area of strong convection appears to present a feature that resembles a distinct warm spot? What the hell?

Yeah I was looking at this feature lastnight and kinda compared it to a tumor or something like that lol. It almost looks like it's detaching itself from Matthew or at least doing something to the overall storms structure itself. It's really weird. Not sure what to make of it.

This is the best link to see this feature:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
Then, one need click the radio button for "animation", choose the number of frames (10-15 or longer), and change "high" zoom to "medium" with the drop down box. Then (for those that don't know), simply click on that part of the picture where Matthew is. Finally, while the loop is running, go above the loop itself and on the page where "Loop Speed" is, and hit faster a few times. That feature is odd to see and the longer the loop the better in seeing how this appears to exist as some continuous feature

[tropicwatch]

Might be completing its loop, northward jog last couple of frames. Now lets see if it keeps a northward component, starts moving westerly again or does another loopsie daisy

[Aric Dunn]

recon showing it may have strengthen slightly again..

190100 1315N 07312W 7507 02056 9487 +172 //// 173088 098 130 010 01
190130 1315N 07310W 7519 02126 9582 +157 //// 174120 129 124 030 01
190200 1315N 07309W 7397 02337 9671 +145 //// 169123 127 112 039 01

[Airboy]

Looks like it's moving NE from recon.

[CrazyC83]

That data probably supports an intensity of 130 kt, although given the FL winds 125 kt may be more appropriate. As for the pressure, I would have to guess 941 since it keeps missing the true center.

[drezee]

NOAA just recorded the strongest drop in Matthew yet, even stronger than yesterday when it was deemed a cat5.

958mb (Surface) 180° (from the S) 105 knots (121 mph)
952mb 180° (from the S) 153 knots (176 mph)
951mb 180° (from the S) 153 knots (176 mph)
948mb 180° (from the S) 149 knots (171 mph)
942mb 185° (from the S) 127 knots (146 mph)
941mb 190° (from the S) 130 knots (150 mph)
937mb 190° (from the S) 151 knots (174 mph)
934mb 195° (from the SSW) 147 knots (169 mph)
925mb 200° (from the SSW) 145 knots (167 mph)
920mb 200° (from the SSW) 152 knots (175 mph)

[Aric Dunn]

That data probably supports an intensity of 130 kt, although given the FL winds 125 kt may be more appropriate. As for the pressure, I would have to guess 941 since it keeps missing the true center.

was a130 kt SFMR as well.... they are purposefully missing the center.

[CrazyC83]

NOAA just recorded the strongest drop in Matthew yet, even stronger than yesterday when it was deemed a cat5.

958mb (Surface) 180° (from the S) 105 knots (121 mph)
952mb 180° (from the S) 153 knots (176 mph)
951mb 180° (from the S) 153 knots (176 mph)
948mb 180° (from the S) 149 knots (171 mph)
942mb 185° (from the S) 127 knots (146 mph)
941mb 190° (from the S) 130 knots (150 mph)
937mb 190° (from the S) 151 knots (174 mph)
934mb 195° (from the SSW) 147 knots (169 mph)
925mb 200° (from the SSW) 145 knots (167 mph)
920mb 200° (from the SSW) 152 knots (175 mph)

153 kt barely above the surface, that would probably be in good agreement with the 130 kt SFMR intensity.

[Aric Dunn]

NOAA just recorded the strongest drop in Matthew yet, even stronger than yesterday when it was deemed a cat5.

958mb (Surface) 180° (from the S) 105 knots (121 mph)
952mb 180° (from the S) 153 knots (176 mph)
951mb 180° (from the S) 153 knots (176 mph)
948mb 180° (from the S) 149 knots (171 mph)
942mb 185° (from the S) 127 knots (146 mph)
941mb 190° (from the S) 130 knots (150 mph)
937mb 190° (from the S) 151 knots (174 mph)
934mb 195° (from the SSW) 147 knots (169 mph)
925mb 200° (from the SSW) 145 knots (167 mph)
920mb 200° (from the SSW) 152 knots (175 mph)

no ERC there lol...

interesting ..upgrade again maybe. they should have had continuous flight all through the night was likely cat 5..

[SouthernBreeze]

On this loop you can see clouds moving E from Central America towards Matt - wouldn't this also be a precursor to his turning N?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-wv.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Aric Dunn]

On this loop you can see clouds moving E from Central America towards Matt - wouldn't this also be a precursor to his turning N?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-wv.html

right now I see no signs of any distinct forward motion. flow around the systems is still east to west the low level cloud structure is pretty much symmetric indicating nothing pulling in any direction.

[CourierPR]

On this loop you can see clouds moving E from Central America towards Matt - wouldn't this also be a precursor to his turning N?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-wv.html

How do you figure that?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[SouthernBreeze]

On this loop you can see clouds moving E from Central America towards Matt - wouldn't this also be a precursor to his turning N?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-wv.html

right now I see no signs of any distinct forward motion. flow around the systems is still east to west the low level cloud structure is pretty much symmetric indicating nothing pulling in any direction.

Thanks for your input Aric!

[Aric Dunn]

Also appears the pressure has started dropping again..

942mb at 50kt flight lvl 88kt sfmr

pressure could be sub 940 now...

191100 1316N 07314W 7455 02074 9428 +192 +160 162033 049 088 010 00

[GCANE]

Latest ARCHER analysis - An Objective Wobble-Watching and Center Reformation Monitor

ARCHER synthesizes information from microwave imagery and determines the circulation center of a tropical cyclone by analyzing how convection lines up with an ideal spiral mesh, and if the storm has an eye, then ARCHER applies its ring score algorithm to determine the diameter of the eye and the certainty that such an eye exists. Through these two primary functions, ARCHER can help point out circulation centers that could be becoming dominant, streamlining a storm's track, clarifying satellite biases, alerting forecasters to new convective features, in addition to other uses.

[Alyono]

NOAA is not doing center fixes. The purpose of this flight is NOT to fix the center

Also, any word from Colombia? That rainband has remained over a normally dry area all day. I suspect the flooding is bad there

[BeRad954]

Looks like there is a big burst of convection building in the NE quadrant. Could this be an indicator to a more northerly movement or Eye relocation?