ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bg1]

Recon finds that the SE quadrant is the strongest right now, 123 knots surface winds by SFMR.

That makes sense, since it's moving E right now.

[chris_fit]

will turn happen today?

All signs point to it happening as we speak

what signs ? ridging is still in place to the north. its crawling when it was supposed to not stall. only thing in place is the weak upper low that was forecast to form though its much farther south.. have to wait some more.

The major slow down and cyclonic loop. It will recover latitude very shortly.

[AutoPenalti]

It wobbled east...

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finds that the SE quadrant is the strongest right now, 123 knots surface winds by SFMR.

If the storm is moving east, that would be the RFQ.

I highly doubt the affects from forward motion to the right front quad is minimul at 0 to 2 miles per hour if at all

[BeRad954]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The last 2 frames look to go S and now turning SE. ITS HAPPENING...IMO

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/782286175931203584

[Aric Dunn]

All signs point to it happening as we speak

what signs ? ridging is still in place to the north. its crawling when it was supposed to not stall. only thing in place is the weak upper low that was forecast to form though its much farther south.. have to wait some more.

The major slow down and cyclonic loop. It will recover latitude very shortly.

not with the ridging still in place. should crawl around till either mid level ridge weakens or the upper low strengthens. right now its status quo

[Michele B]

will turn happen today?

All signs point to it happening as we speak

what signs ? ridging is still in place to the north. its crawling when it was supposed to not stall. only thing in place is the weak upper low that was forecast to form though its much farther south.. have to wait some more.

Slowing or stalling of forward motion IS usually a sign that a shift in direction is imminent.

[wxmann_91]

Recon finds that the SE quadrant is the strongest right now, 123 knots surface winds by SFMR.

That makes sense, since it's moving E right now.

Because it's moving so slowly right now, the additive effect of movement to the winds is nearly negligible. The bigger factor is that the strongest convection is in the SE quad, as the shear is stronger further north, and the north eyewall may be eroding from the subsidence induced by a forming outer eyewall.

[Aric Dunn]

All signs point to it happening as we speak

what signs ? ridging is still in place to the north. its crawling when it was supposed to not stall. only thing in place is the weak upper low that was forecast to form though its much farther south.. have to wait some more.

Slowing or stalling of forward motion IS usually a sign that a shift in direction is imminent.

also typically a sign the steering currents have fallen apart. if a system is moving at a constant speed and rounds the west side of a ridge it does not stall in simply gradually turns. this set up is induced from the formation of an upper low in the gulf that is supposed to induce and drive the northerly motion not the rounding of a ridge. until either thing happens slow crawl is likely.

[Sanibel]

The core on AVN loop is showing a flat NW quadrant. The cyclonic loop in response is almost a certain sign of the turn.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Blown Away]

Moving E and appears to be finishing a loop...

[chaser1]

(what happens when lacking sleep lol; i meant cyclonic loop, not anti-cyclonic)

[CrazyC83]

All signs point to it happening as we speak

what signs ? ridging is still in place to the north. its crawling when it was supposed to not stall. only thing in place is the weak upper low that was forecast to form though its much farther south.. have to wait some more.

Slowing or stalling of forward motion IS usually a sign that a shift in direction is imminent.

This is almost the exact spot that Hazel made the hard turn (and may have looped, if we had satellites to prove it).

[TheDreamTraveler]

Okay, well THERE'S something I've never seen before??? Look at the area of detached convection well to the east of the storms core. This persistent area of strong convection appears to present a feature that resembles a distinct warm spot? What the hell?

Yeah I was looking at this feature lastnight and kinda compared it to a tumor or something like that lol. It almost looks like it's detaching itself from Matthew or at least doing something to the overall storms structure itself. It's really weird. Not sure what to make of it.

[NJWxHurricane]

most likely about to make a turn

[TheDreamTraveler]

most likely about to make a turn

According to the 2PM advisory its moving south at 2 mph. So not quite yet.

[Sanibel]

The deeper convention blob to the east of the core is probably just convergence with the Caribbean easterly trade winds as Matthew gets pinned between the trades and the front.

It obviously wasn't headed south and has looped. Proper heading is averaged to the overall movement.

[chaser1]

So strange. Hardly detectable on this resolution
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif
but, on the NASA satellite site, the visible high res loop absolutely appeared to show some distinct warm spot in the detached area of intense convection well ESE of the core of the storm. This feature just doesn't appear on the NOAA SSD site visible close up (and barely a hint on the BD Divorak curve )

[Aric Dunn]

recon showing small outer wind maximum on the north side.. could finally be starting a ERC..


never mind they are flying through the eyewall not full passes again..