ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Coughing out some pretty big outflow boundaries right now.

Dry air is not in the core of Matthew, it has been in the NW quadrant for the last couple of days, thus you see the outflow boundaries on that side. If dry air would had entrained into the circulation it would had never been this strong. If anything it has a nice moisture tail all the way from the deep tropical regions of South America.

[Michele B]

As others have said the eye is wobbling around somewhat.

I think we may see this system do a small loop around, motion will swing pretty much back on track once its completed it.

IF that doesn't happen , then obviously there maybe bigger timing implications down the line.

I was just reading the latest advisory (trying to catch up after doing chores this morning!), and it seems confident the Atlantic Ridge would move EAST....why is UK saying the opposite?

[AdamFirst]

WOBBLE WATCHING!

I'm glad there's a storm in the Atlantic we can wobble watch.

[SouthDadeFish]

943 mb extrapolated. Definitely seems to have leveled off.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Every wobble is important. All of the models I can see show Matthew going W-WNW right now. If Matthew's wobbling WSW then even that movement could have implications for the future track.

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on looking at satellite appearance right now I think we may be witnessing a cyclonic loop taking place. If that is the case I would guess that it may start moving poleward shortly.

[cycloneye]

943 mb extrapolated. Definitely seems to have leveled off.

And it has not gained latitude.

[tropicwatch]

It is almost due south of its 11am position.

[NDG]

VDM:

945mb with a surface wind of 19knots, so is safe to say that it is more like 944mb

[KWT]

Based on looking at satellite appearance right now I think we may be witnessing a cyclonic loop taking place. If that is the case I would guess that it may start moving poleward shortly.

Yes I think that is quite likely, recon will probably give us a better indication with regards to what is actually happening with Matthew over the next few hours.

[Michele B]

Was just reading "Big Joe Bastardi's" tweets from this morning.

He seems to indicate he trusts the UKmet in this case - AND hinted that Matthew may not be the end of the line for this season's hurricanes....mentions maybe something in the W. Carib at 10 days out.

[LarryWx]

It is down to near 13.1N now vs the NHC's 13.4 of about 3 hours ago. My guess is that it is looping and about to start to have a northerly component.

[ScottNAtlanta]

943 mb extrapolated. Definitely seems to have leveled off.

And it has not gained latitude.

Thats a pretty big wobble...and almost due south

[KWT]

It is down to near 13.1N now vs the NHC's 13.4 of about 3 hours ago. My guess is that it is looping and about to start to have a northerly component.

We will see, I think thats correct but sometimes these systems do pull some interesting tracks, especially deep down there in the Caribbean.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is down to near 13.1N now vs the NHC's 13.4 of about 3 hours ago. My guess is that it is looping and about to start to have a northerly component.

We will see, I think thats correct but sometimes these systems do pull some interesting tracks, especially deep down there in the Caribbean.

Is it possible the frictional effects of land to the south are having some effect by slowing the southern side wind field causing it to wobble south?

Edit...just refreshed the loop I was watching and now there is a slight SE movement so it does look like a loop now.

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeah, I also think Matthew is making some kind of cyclonic loop before it begins to turn to the north. These trochoidal oscillations are common with powerful hurricanes, particularly those undergoing eyewall replacements cycles. I did not see any obvious signs of an imminent EWRC from the recon's flight level winds though. There were some slight hints in the NE quad, but it's likely still quite a bit of time away, which is impressive considering the small size of the core.

[NDG]

[cycloneye]

Moving south.

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 73.4W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

[KWT]

Great radar imagery NDG, you can really make out the decent dry slot in the NE quadrant, but the inner eyewall does look real tight still!

[NDG]

Yeah, I also think Matthew is making some kind of cyclonic loop before it begins to turn to the north. These trochoidal oscillations are common with powerful hurricanes, particularly those undergoing eyewall replacements cycles. I did not see any obvious signs of an imminent EWRC from the recon's flight level winds though. There were some slight hints in the NE quad, but it's likely still quite a bit of time away, which is impressive considering the small size of the core.

Yeap, indeed it looks like is doing a loop, now heading E.