ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Impressive. It's my first time tracking a category 5 Atlantic hurricane and it just feels.... different! Did this just break the record for the farthest south of such intensity??

I believe it is the furthest South cat 5 on record just barely eclipsing Ivan.

[Bailey1777]

Real quick I am pledging that whatever Matthews final ace is I am going to donate that much in dollars to storm2k, anybody else in?

[Blinhart]

Good Evening everyone,

I was just on the models page to see the GFS run. It seems another slight shift west, at some point I need to make some serious choices. So if any of the Pro Mets care to give me their take it would be very much appreciated. I am at my house in Key Largo for the weekend, I am stuck deciding do I put up the shutters or not. I have the boat hanging on the Davits do I put it on the trailer and pick up everything this weekend. If for some strange reason it decides to come further west than expected, I will not be able to get back in the Keys to do anything. I guess what I am hoping to get here is your feelings as to how serious a chance this could move in here and cause severe weather. Thanks in advance for yo Professional input.

I'm not a pro-met, but I would definitely put my shutters up for this one, this storm could pack a major wallop to Key Largo. I would definitely get everything put up this weekend.

[WeatherEmperor]

Real quick I am pledging that whatever Matthews final ace is I am going to donate that much in dollars to storm2k, anybody else in?

Matthew's and all other tropical cyclone ACE can be tracked here:

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[Javlin]

Looking at the IR and the big picture you see better cloud structure to the N.The system is no longer aligned E-W but feeling room to the N is ridging easing up for a bit?Would seem to indicate the N move is about to commence in the next 3-6hrs as projected.The question is will it be a 90'N movement overall? something I cannot quite bite into yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir4.html

[stephen23]

I still feel if GFS upper level pattern and a slower storm pans out this still has potential for landfall from anywhere from Texas to fish in the Atlantic. Afternoon model of GFS showed strong ringing to the North with a strong trough digging down into Texas. Looked to me at that time that is this storm was to slow down by a day or less and that ridge was to dig down 12 hours earlier this thing could cross Florida around Miami and end up a Guide monster. Are there any pro Mets out there that agree this is still in the realm of possibility?

[stephen23]

***ridging***

[SouthDadeFish]

I still feel if GFS upper level pattern and a slower storm pans out this still has potential for landfall from anywhere from Texas to fish in the Atlantic. Afternoon model of GFS showed strong ringing to the North with a strong trough digging down into Texas. Looked to me at that time that is this storm was to slow down by a day or less and that ridge was to dig down 12 hours earlier this thing could cross Florida around Miami and end up a Guide monster. Are there any pro Mets out there that agree this is still in the realm of possibility?

I'd be feeling pretty safe right now if I lived in Texas!!!

[Ntxw]

Real quick I am pledging that whatever Matthews final ace is I am going to donate that much in dollars to storm2k, anybody else in?

A little over 7 units so far. Anywhere from 20-40 units is a good final guess

Speaking of donating, any time is a good time to donate we could always use the help to keep the board running

[ronyan]

Latest IR frame looks like the inner eyewall may be collapsing.

[Blinhart]

I still feel if GFS upper level pattern and a slower storm pans out this still has potential for landfall from anywhere from Texas to fish in the Atlantic. Afternoon model of GFS showed strong ringing to the North with a strong trough digging down into Texas. Looked to me at that time that is this storm was to slow down by a day or less and that ridge was to dig down 12 hours earlier this thing could cross Florida around Miami and end up a Guide monster. Are there any pro Mets out there that agree this is still in the realm of possibility?

You need to be careful to call this a fish, it will effect some land no matter where it goes, so it will not be a fish.

[stephen23]

The Phantom lingering low to the North has vanished. The only weakness shown now is digging down into Texas Just as Mathew is reaching Texas. I feel the Gulf is still fair game. The west shift of the models are inching toward that solution slowly but surely

[Blinhart]

You guys got to remember some Cat 5 hurricanes can actually have multiple eye walls.

[hurricaneCW]

I hope the gfs track or something slightly further west doesn't verify because that would be a brutal multi-hit. Remember that he'll gradually be expanding after every EWRC and those first couple of landfalls (Jamaica, Cuba). Let's hope he doesn't pull an Ike size wise.

[Sanibel]

GFDL used to become more accurate at this intensity. Don't know what it does now.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I still feel if GFS upper level pattern and a slower storm pans out this still has potential for landfall from anywhere from Texas to fish in the Atlantic. Afternoon model of GFS showed strong ringing to the North with a strong trough digging down into Texas. Looked to me at that time that is this storm was to slow down by a day or less and that ridge was to dig down 12 hours earlier this thing could cross Florida around Miami and end up a Guide monster. Are there any pro Mets out there that agree this is still in the realm of possibility?

No offense, but if Matthew makes it all the way west to Texas I'll eat my hat. Given the setup, I just can't see that in the cards.

[Bailey1777]

Real quick I am pledging that whatever Matthews final ace is I am going to donate that much in dollars to storm2k, anybody else in?

A little over 7 units so far. Anywhere from 20-40 units is a good final guess

Speaking of donating, any time is a good time to donate we could always use the help to keep the board running

Sounds good wish others would join me, this board isn't free gang, there are bills to be paid...now back to the storm...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
Good Evening everyone,

Reposting this in the hope of getting any of the Pro Mets in here opinion.

I was just on the models page to see the GFS run. It seems another slight shift west, at some point I need to make some serious choices. So if any of the Pro Mets care to give me their take it would be very much appreciated. I am at my house in Key Largo for the weekend, I am stuck deciding do I put up the shutters or not. I have the boat hanging on the Davits do I put it on the trailer and pick up everything this weekend. If for some strange reason it decides to come further west than expected, I will not be able to get back in the Keys to do anything. I guess what I am hoping to get here is your feelings as to how serious a chance this could move in here and cause severe weather. Thanks in advance for yo Professional input.

[sponger]

Real quick I am pledging that whatever Matthews final ace is I am going to donate that much in dollars to storm2k, anybody else in?

Matthew's and all other tropical cyclone ACE can be tracked here:

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

Ditto for me!

[Blinhart]

The Phantom lingering low to the North has vanished. The only weakness shown now is digging down into Texas Just as Mathew is reaching Texas. I feel the Gulf is still fair game. The west shift of the models are inching toward that solution slowly but surely

I am actually starting to worry about this system. I don't think he will make it to Louisiana, but you never know with systems like this. I hope my gut is correct and this will not make it into the gulf, but if he does make it into the Gulf we might end up seeing the strongest hurricane on record with winds over 210. The GoM is a steaming pot waiting to feed a major hurricane to new records.