ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

I'm old enough to remember when the center was exposed and people were wondering of this would even become a hurricane.

[tigerz3030]

Hey ozonepete. Great seeing you my friend. Tonight isreminding me of the old days on here uh?? Yeah I agree with your observations and we will be watching with eyes glued to this beast in the days to come. It is just going to be utter devastation to Jamaica and Cuba and potentially the Bahamas. My heart really is aching hard for those folks down there for certain.

NorthJax, how concerned are you right now for us in NE FL? Based on all the models it's looking like we will have some effects

[txwatcher91]

Question: the CIMSS page shows 25-30kts of shear over Matthew with up to 50kts over Jamaica. How is this shear not affecting Matthew at all? Is the map that far off in its estimation or are other factors in play?

[RL3AO]

Question: the CIMSS page shows 25-30kts of shear over Matthew with up to 50kts over Jamaica. How is this shear not affecting Matthew at all? Is the map that far off in its estimation or are other factors in play?

I could be wrong but I've always felt like the shear was never going into the storm but was always just clipping the western side and drastically helping with outflow on the north side.

[northjaxpro]

Oh yes, definitely can not forget the people over in Haiti and the Dominican Republic of course. They nost certainly will have mudslifes and heavy impacts potentially from Beast Matthew.

Pray for all down iin that region. The worst of all possible scenarios inthe Caribbean frightenly and unfortunately is playing out of for all of us to see.

[sponger]

Question: the CIMSS page shows 25-30kts of shear over Matthew with up to 50kts over Jamaica. How is this shear not affecting Matthew at all? Is the map that far off in its estimation or are other factors in play?

This storm defies logic. 3rd most explosive strengthening under marginal conditions. Might say something about how future adversarial conditions may not have the expected impact on intensity.

[Bailey1777]

I've been watching this one since it was a pouch. You could see some really good rotation the second it dumped into the Atlantic. I will admit that I'm surprised the army of ull that have been patrolling the tropics over the last few years didn't get Matt. What a storm!

[SapphireSea]

Question: the CIMSS page shows 25-30kts of shear over Matthew with up to 50kts over Jamaica. How is this shear not affecting Matthew at all? Is the map that far off in its estimation or are other factors in play?

Sometimes the shear analysis includes the outflow of the storm. I believe we also saw this with Patricia showing 40 to 60kt around. Also with Gaston this year. There should be fairly low shear around the CDO and center. Matt is drastically influencing features around him.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2016 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 13:14:40 N Lon : 72:10:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 923.7mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -17.3C Cloud Region Temp : -76.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[ozonepete]

Ok, for all of you who said I was wrong about seeing an ERC about to begin, this is directly from the 11PM discussion:

"HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur soon...

That's what I said I saw in a post not long ago, and I saw it because you could see a ring of higher topped thunderstorms surrounding the small eye. RECON does NOT usually see an ERC before we see it on satellite and/or radar since the developing outer eyewall, while immediately visible on satellite, does not immediately induce the corresponding increase in winds that a plane can detect; it takes a little time for the outer ring of winds to get established and be measureable by RECON. Just sayin' to you guys who questioned me that not all aspects of hurricane dynamics can be detected by our incredible RECON planes first.

Eyewall replacement may be beginning now, but I do maintain that eyewall replacement had not begun at the time of your original post over five hours ago. Even now, I'm not 100% sold that one has begun, despite NHC mentioning the possibility in their discussion. I do respect your thoughts, don't get me wrong. However, based on the information I have, I do not agree that eyewall replacement was underway over five hours ago.

I'm replying because you are one of the best forecasters on here.
I said it was near or about to begin, or at least that was clearly my intention from the post. My main point was that:
1) I could see an outer ring of thunderstorms surrounding the small eye at that time
and
2) most importantly, that we can usually see that feature on satellite before RCON can measure it.

Do you disagree with those two points?

[Bailey1777]

Ozonepete, something tells me that you had a wee bit of schooling and this isn't your first tropical rodeo. I would go with the pro on this one...appreciate you taking the time to give us educated information...

[northjaxpro]

Hey ozonepete. Great seeing you my friend. Tonight isreminding me of the old days on here uh?? Yeah I agree with your observations and we will be watching with eyes glued to this beast in the days to come. It is just going to be utter devastation to Jamaica and Cuba and potentially the Bahamas. My heart really is aching hard for those folks down there for certain.

NorthJax, how concerned are you right now for us in NE FL? Based on all the models it's looking like we will have some effects

Well, up until yesterday, I really have kept close to the vest my thiughts with regards to this storm. I have never felt good vibes with this one tigerz3030 . A saw a few days ago when Matthew was a pouch that any long range forecast had a lot of complexities with the large scale pattern both with.track.

Now, we have a beast in the South- Central Caribbean which tonight we still do not know with where it will be or head after the next 5 days. Extremely complex forecast. A lot of possibilities still on the table. NO.ONE at this juncture can sound an all clear that is for sure.
I can only say that we must stay alert and carefully follow the latest developments.over the weekend with this deadly tropical cyclone.

I am growing more concerned with the west shift and now tonight for the first time, NHC has placed a portion of the SE Florida coast region in that cone of uncertainty. That is an ominous sign for me and one that we must keep in our minds that if these west shifts with the models continue into this weekend, the possibility of seeing significant effects on the Florida coast increases with time as well. Extremely interesting and nerve-wrecking times ahead for sure.

[ozonepete]

There's the outer ring of thunderstorms clearly way outside the small tight eye at 2100 UTC or 5PM this afternoon. ERC's start slowly and take many hours to complete, anywhere from 12 to 18 hours or more.

[ozonepete]

Ozonepete, something tells me that you had a wee bit of schooling and this isn't your first tropical rodeo. I would go with the pro on this one...appreciate you taking the time to give us educated information...

Thanks dude. Yeah I'm on this great site mostly just to have fun and help people out understanding what's going on. I'm tired of the rodeo.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Evening everyone,

I was just on the models page to see the GFS run. It seems another slight shift west, at some point I need to make some serious choices. So if any of the Pro Mets care to give me their take it would be very much appreciated. I am at my house in Key Largo for the weekend, I am stuck deciding do I put up the shutters or not. I have the boat hanging on the Davits do I put it on the trailer and pick up everything this weekend. If for some strange reason it decides to come further west than expected, I will not be able to get back in the Keys to do anything. I guess what I am hoping to get here is your feelings as to how serious a chance this could move in here and cause severe weather. Thanks in advance for yo Professional input.

[Kingarabian]

I could be wrong but per the latest models:

Anymore SW movements will allow this storm to shift closer and closer to Florida.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive. It's my first time tracking a category 5 Atlantic hurricane and it just feels.... different! Did this just break the record for the farthest south of such intensity??

[AxaltaRacing24]

I could be wrong but per the latest models:

Anymore SW movements will allow this storm to shift closer and closer to Florida.

Anymore SW movements will allow this storm to shift towards a landfall. What a turn of events today.

[NYR__1994]

Hey ozonepete. Great seeing you my friend. Tonight isreminding me of the old days on here uh?? Yeah I agree with your observations and we will be watching with eyes glued to this beast in the days to come. It is just going to be utter devastation to Jamaica and Cuba and potentially the Bahamas. My heart really is aching hard for those folks down there for certain.

NorthJax, how concerned are you right now for us in NE FL? Based on all the models it's looking like we will have some effects

Well, up until yesterday, I really have kept close to the vest my thiughts with regards to this storm. I have never felt good vibes with this one tigerz3030 . A saw a few days ago when Matthew was a pouch that any long range forecast had a lot of complexities with the large scale pattern both with.track.

Now, we have a beast in the South- Central Caribbean which tonight we still do not know with where it will be or head after the next 5 days. Extremely complex forecast. A lot of possibilities still on the table. NO.ONE at this juncture can sound an all clear that is for sure.
I can only say that we must stay alert and carefully follow the latest developments.over the weekend with this deadly tropical cyclone.

I am growing more concerned with the west shift and now tonight for the first time, NHC has placed a portion of the SE Florida coast region in that cone of uncertainty. That is an ominous sign for me and one that we must keep in our minds that if these west shifts with the models continue into this weekend, the possibility of seeing significant effects on the Florida coast increases with time as well. Extremely interesting and nerve-wrecking times ahead for sure.

This to me is saying that someone with training and expereince, but no MET tag, is saying "hold on to your butts cuz this ish is about to get real"

[bamajammer4eva]

Could unfortunately be the ONLY hurricane Matthew if NHC forecast pans out

The name Matthew has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm Matthew (2004) - Brought heavy rain to the Gulf Coast of Louisiana, causing light damages and deaths on its path.
Tropical Storm Matthew (2010) - Made landfall in Central America and later moved into Mexico, causing 171 million in damages and 126 deaths.
Hurricane Matthew (2016) - the first Category 5 Atlantic hurricane since Felix in 2007, the first major hurricane to exist in the southern Caribbean Sea since Sandy, and the southernmost Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean, reaching Category 5 strength at a latitude of 13.3N.