ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

Interesting that NHC put SFL in the cone.

Cone is always the same size, just a reflection of the West shift in track

Usually but not in this case. Look at the left side versus the right.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents[url][/url]

[toad strangler]

NHC gives FL a nod by shifting cone slightly to the W

[TheStormExpert]

Steve Weagle from WPTV News Channel 5 in West Palm Beach, FL just mentioned how it looks to be moving SW towards Columbia while the NHC has it moving West @ 7mph.

[Yellow Evan]

Interesting that NHC put SFL in the cone.

Cone is always the same size, just a reflection of the West shift in track

Usually but not in this case. Look at the left side versus the right.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents[url][/url]

It's the same size on that cone.

[AtlanticWind]

I had almost given up on this season about seen a Cat 4 yet along a Cat 5 over the Atlantic Basin, amazing how conditions change so quickly. But I was one of the ones that was preaching at the beginning of the season that the Caribbean was the area to watch this season lol.

Yeah, I think I lot of us were thinking the carribean with the TCHP being so high was
Capable of a big one this year.

[SouthDadeFish]

This is not a bash on the NHC. But... 24 hr ago, the NHC forecast max winds of 75 kt at this time... Now Matthew has max sustained winds of 140 kt. Thankfully, Matthew is not about to make landfall. This would be the worst case scenario for a landfalling TC. And this is why we desperately need to understand TC intensity change better.

What. A. Storm.

[NotoSans]

I don't understand why NHC does not forecast any re-intensification before the storm hits Jamaica.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the cone includes the counties of St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach and Dade and south through the Straits and Keys. The cone also includes Lake O.

[HurricaneRyan]

Did this become a Cat 5? That's what wikipedia is saying

[HurricaneFrances04]

Interesting that NHC put SFL in the cone.

Cone is always the same size, just a reflection of the West shift in track

Usually but not in this case. Look at the left side versus the right.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents[url][/url]

That's a result of Day 5 being west of Day 4.

[SouthFLTropics]

Matthew is making up for lost time in the Atlantic...racking up some ACE tonight.

[floridasun78]

will Matthew beat mitch record?

[TheDreamTraveler]

According to the latest advisory this is moving due west? How exactly? Doesn't appear to look that way.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[psyclone]

Interesting that NHC put SFL in the cone.

Cone is always the same size, just a reflection of the West shift in track

Usually but not in this case. Look at the left side versus the right.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents[url][/url]

the cone is a series of error circles...any left side/right side differences are optical illusions

[BobHarlem]

According to the latest advisory this is moving due west? How exactly? Doesn't appear to look that way.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

From discussion:

Matthew is still moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 6 kt
steered by a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic.
In about 12 hours, the hurricane should be on the western edge of
the high and ahead of a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico.
This steering pattern should force Matthew to turn northwestward and
then northward at about 5 to 10 kt.

[AutoPenalti]

According to the latest advisory this is moving due west? How exactly? Doesn't appear to look that way.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Might just be slight wobbles, last few frames show a more westerly turn.

[Alyono]

Interesting that NHC put SFL in the cone.

Cone is always the same size, just a reflection of the West shift in track

Usually but not in this case. Look at the left side versus the right.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents[url][/url]

cone always same size, no matter what. See the cone post

[tatertawt24]

According to the latest advisory this is moving due west? How exactly? Doesn't appear to look that way.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Might just be slight wobbles, last few frames show a more westerly turn.

I feel like it's been ages since I saw that word.

[sponger]

Compare cone versus yesterday at same time.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents

[Stormcenter]

If you view the last few sat. frames looks like Matthew is moving more SW than W or WSW. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/h5-loop-vis.html