ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

ok hi guy i been watch forum from work tablet cannot login ok what you think what my weatherman from wfor here miami saying if MATTHEW move north on Saturday will be good for south fl put stay moving west until sunday and will time for south fl to look system more

[Alyono]

looks to be some undercutting wind shear starting to affect this. This may be why the models insist this will weaken tomorrow.

of course, that shear goes away Sunday, when this starts moving over the very high heat content. I'd be surprised if this is not at least a strong cat 4, with cat 5 likely, for Jamaica

Are you thinking we haven't seen the peak yet?

not the peak, even though by the data, this is a cat 5 now.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a peak of 155 kts or higher unless this totally unravels tomorrow

[Blizzard96x]

looks to be some undercutting wind shear starting to affect this. This may be why the models insist this will weaken tomorrow.

of course, that shear goes away Sunday, when this starts moving over the very high heat content. I'd be surprised if this is not at least a strong cat 4, with cat 5 likely, for Jamaica

Are you thinking we haven't seen the peak yet?

not the peak, even though by the data, this is a cat 5 now.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a peak of 155 kts or higher unless this totally unravels tomorrow

kts?

[gatorcane]

Steve Weagle from Fox 29 news out of West Palm Beach mentioned the GFS shifting west a little and said this hurricane is one to watch as the Bermuda High seems a little stronger than the computer models think.

[RickM]

Sitting on the beach in Grand Cayman, smoking a cigar, winds are definitely more out of the east than the past 3 days. Not sure if that means anything or not.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2016 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 13:18:01 N Lon : 71:57:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.2mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 7.0 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[robbielyn]

Sitting on the beach in Grand Cayman, smoking a cigar, winds are definitely more out of the east than the past 3 days. Not sure if that means anything or not.

let's hope it stays well east of you you dont need this big burly monster on your front porch

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AF303 leaving after only three passes?

[pcolaman]

I saw that someone mentioned the blog that was following behind Matthew comma to me it looks like and it's falling right along with Matthew. Could the reasoning that it was following behind being due to just the trade winds or possibly the high pressure or the Bermuda High? Kind of interesting

[toad strangler]

Steve Weagle from Fox 29 news out of West Palm Beach mentioned the GFS shifting west a little and said this hurricane is one to watch as the Bermuda High seems a little stronger than the computer models think.

Yea, just caught his piece ....He voiced the first real alarm bells to the public here in St Lucie, Martin, and Palm Beach counties. Flat out admitted that any more W shifts in track turns a breezy stormy day or two mid next week into a completely different situation.

[Michele B]

ok hi guy i been watch forum from work tablet cannot login ok what you think what my weatherman from wfor here miami saying if MATTHEW move north on Saturday will be good for south fl put stay moving west until sunday and will time for south fl to look system more

I agree with your weatherman!

A sooner turn to the north means further out to sea, a later turn (more west first, then turn) takes it over some of the peninsula.

[northjaxpro]

Good evening everyone. I see Recon currently down in the storm is about to leave. What time will the next flight will be in Matthew?

[TheStormExpert]

Could the no-Cat.5 streak be ending tonight?

 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/782044819078078464

[tropicwatch]

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 01/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 1014A MATTHEW
C. 01/0930Z
D. 13.9N 72.8W
E. 01/1100Z TO 01/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
Not till morning it looks like.

[Hammy]

Good evening everyone. I see Recon currently down in the storm is about to leave. What time will the next flight will be in Matthew?

Around sunrise, takeoff at 5:30am.

[drewschmaltz]

ok hi guy i been watch forum from work tablet cannot login ok what you think what my weatherman from wfor here miami saying if MATTHEW move north on Saturday will be good for south fl put stay moving west until sunday and will time for south fl to look system more

I agree with your weatherman!

A sooner turn to the north means further out to sea, a later turn (more west first, then turn) takes it over some of the peninsula.

I'm not confident that it necessarily matters how west it goes. If the trough/ridge setup steers it into the peninsula or if there is a weekneas in the peninsula, then it may go over the peninsula. The starting position before the turn isn't as important as the setup when it makes the turn.

[SouthDadeFish]

A truly powerful storm. Wow. I'm shocked Matthew has intensified this quickly in this kind of environment.

[Evil Jeremy]

Good evening everyone. I see Recon currently down in the storm is about to leave. What time will the next flight will be in Matthew?

If I'm reading it right, next flight takes off in about 6 hours...

New advisory going to cut it close?

[TimeZone]

Recon gone already?

[Hammy]

Recon gone already?

Yeah, the it seems like the true intensity isn't likely to make the official record.