ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Ken711]

Most of those models listed at 00Z are pretty bad. You certainly don't want to use the BAM models. LBAR is terrible, OCD5 is climo-based, and the Navy variations of the GFDL are terrible. Of the models there, the TVCA (consensus model) is the best. It's also well east of the other (bad) models. HWRF has been quite inconsistent and can't be trusted. The AVNI is based on the 18Z GFS. Real 00Z models won't come in for 2-4 hours.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

Thanks for the model breakdown.

[SapphireSea]

if it helps any no hurricane has made landfall on the peninsula in this timeframe ever. climo suggests offshore of fl and out to sea or obx. only western penance has been hit before.

Actually the Climo track here would be WNW to Yucatan as indicated by CLP5 Climo stats and as you stated a NE turn into SW FL or Central W FL would be favored. The pattern with this storm will not support a Climo track. Closest analog is Hazel, but it will be feast or famine with the pattern. Either a powerful trough will sweep Matt to sea well East of FL or OBX, or possibly late materialization and FL entanglement plus OBX.

[psyclone]

if it helps any no hurricane has made landfall on the peninsula in this timeframe ever. climo suggests offshore of fl and out to sea or obx. only western panhandle has been hit before.

This time of the year is unquestionably a hot zone for peninsula hits. It's October eve...and that is the highest risk month of the year for the peninsula, especially south florida.

[floridasun78]

wsvn looking forward to nhc dissuasion to see what thinking about most models shift more to west!!!

[fci]

Interaction with land will have 2 major impacts on Matthew. First, the core will be severely disrupted, resulting in a significant drop in intensity. Second, the wind field will expand considerably, perhaps to twice the size south of Cuba. After the wind field expansion it may take a while to regain its core and intensify. Think Ike in 2008. It never could get its core going before landfall after passing over Cuba twice. It was getting pretty close, though, as it moved over us.

I looked at the 12Z EC ensembles and it appears that the operational run is an outlier. Most of the 50 ensemble members take Matthew out to sea to the northeast. I don't believe the 12Z EC, but I do think that Matthew may pass close enough to the Carolinas to brush them with TS winds, particularly since its wind field will be much larger by then.

I see your not buying the Euro...But I don't see you commenting on the GFS getting closer in yet again?

I see 57 not acknowledging a threat to our location and yet here is the super consistent GFS model trending west and now with a position, what, maybe 140 miles from Florida? Can't for the life of me see how this doesn't constitute a threat.

140 miles off shore on the West side of a Hurricane isn't much of a threat.
Don't see anything reliable yet putting Hurricane conditions on shore in South or Central Florida yet.
Of course we need to be vigilant as maybe the models and/or forecast will bring the area into the crosshairs; but that has not happened yet.
Florida residents on the site need to take a deep breath and relax a little.
If I didn't look at the models and forecast and just read the comments here, I would think that we are in the middle of the cone!

[bamajammer4eva]

Spaghetti models from 06, 12, 18, 00 today show overall they may have inched a small bit closer each time but there were landfalls for FL/GA in all the prior ones but none in the newest 00z set. These exclude the BAMs btw

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I see your not buying the Euro...But I don't see you commenting on the GFS getting closer in yet again?

I see 57 not acknowledging a threat to our location and yet here is the super consistent GFS model trending west and now with a position, what, maybe 140 miles from Florida? Can't for the life of me see how this doesn't constitute a threat.

140 miles off shore on the West side of a Hurricane isn't much of a threat.
Don't see anything reliable yet putting Hurricane conditions on shore in South or Central Florida yet.
Of course we need to be vigilant as maybe the models and/or forecast will bring the area into the crosshairs; but that has not happened yet.
Florida residents on the site need to take a deep breath and relax a little.
If I didn't look at the models and forecast and just read the comments here, I would think that we are in the middle of the cone!

Its all about the trends.

[wxman57]

I'm not saying no threat to S. Florida - of COURSE there is a threat to Florida - that's why we told our clients there to activate their hurricane response plans. If Matthew tracks closer to Florida then the east coast could see tropical storm-force winds on Wednesday. I don't see anything (yet) to indicate a potential hurricane-force wind impact on SE FL.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I see 57 not acknowledging a threat to our location and yet here is the super consistent GFS model trending west and now with a position, what, maybe 140 miles from Florida? Can't for the life of me see how this doesn't constitute a threat.

140 miles off shore on the West side of a Hurricane isn't much of a threat.
Don't see anything reliable yet putting Hurricane conditions on shore in South or Central Florida yet.
Of course we need to be vigilant as maybe the models and/or forecast will bring the area into the crosshairs; but that has not happened yet.
Florida residents on the site need to take a deep breath and relax a little.
If I didn't look at the models and forecast and just read the comments here, I would think that we are in the middle of the cone!

Its all about the trends.

Also the trend currently is an increased risk for Florida. Not a decreasing one.

[fci]

I see 57 not acknowledging a threat to our location and yet here is the super consistent GFS model trending west and now with a position, what, maybe 140 miles from Florida? Can't for the life of me see how this doesn't constitute a threat.

140 miles off shore on the West side of a Hurricane isn't much of a threat.
Don't see anything reliable yet putting Hurricane conditions on shore in South or Central Florida yet.
Of course we need to be vigilant as maybe the models and/or forecast will bring the area into the crosshairs; but that has not happened yet.
Florida residents on the site need to take a deep breath and relax a little.
If I didn't look at the models and forecast and just read the comments here, I would think that we are in the middle of the cone!

Its all about the trends.

Absolutely, good point.
But look at spaghetti models right above.
Very clustered at least 100-200 miles offshore of South/Central Florida.
Not out of the woods, need to watch, however; discussions about contra flow evacuations and a Hurricane hit are way too excessive.

[Frank2]

Very possible this may defy the models per its ongoing SW motion and get trapped down there, as happens sometimes in early October. as Herni (1979) did in the GOM...

[floridasun78]

saturday we need see if matthew go as models see turn happen we need see weakness form on sat pull it north

[ConvergenceZone]

This is slightly off-topic but I'm always hearing about some of the really bad models from year-to-year, and if performance of these models is so bad(which I agree with by the way),why do they keep using them year after year?? why not either improve on them or just get rid of them completely. I just don't understand that.

[psyclone]

140 miles off shore on the West side of a Hurricane isn't much of a threat.
Don't see anything reliable yet putting Hurricane conditions on shore in South or Central Florida yet.
Of course we need to be vigilant as maybe the models and/or forecast will bring the area into the crosshairs; but that has not happened yet.
Florida residents on the site need to take a deep breath and relax a little.
If I didn't look at the models and forecast and just read the comments here, I would think that we are in the middle of the cone!

Its all about the trends.

Also the trend currently is an increased risk for Florida. Not a decreasing one.

Well we're about to find out the NHC's thoughts. if it is increasing it is doing so from a low baseline based on prior forecasts (10% or less ts probs for FL)

[centuryv58]

140 miles off shore on the West side of a Hurricane isn't much of a threat.
Don't see anything reliable yet putting Hurricane conditions on shore in South or Central Florida yet.
Of course we need to be vigilant as maybe the models and/or forecast will bring the area into the crosshairs; but that has not happened yet.
Florida residents on the site need to take a deep breath and relax a little.
If I didn't look at the models and forecast and just read the comments here, I would think that we are in the middle of the cone!

Its all about the trends.

Also the trend currently is an increased risk for Florida. Not a decreasing one.

Yes, it is. Some just aren't convinced.

[floridasun78]

I'm not saying no threat to S. Florida - of COURSE there is a threat to Florida - that's why we told our clients there to activate their hurricane response plans. If Matthew tracks closer to Florida then the east coast could see tropical storm-force winds on Wednesday. I don't see anything (yet) to indicate a potential hurricane-force wind impact on SE FL.

hi wx i know some time don't agree with you put you know more i know my question my weatherman from wfor here say if storm don't start moving north on Saturday our risk south fl will go higher?

[caneman]

140 miles off shore on the West side of a Hurricane isn't much of a threat.
Don't see anything reliable yet putting Hurricane conditions on shore in South or Central Florida yet.
Of course we need to be vigilant as maybe the models and/or forecast will bring the area into the crosshairs; but that has not happened yet.
Florida residents on the site need to take a deep breath and relax a little.
If I didn't look at the models and forecast and just read the comments here, I would think that we are in the middle of the cone!

Its all about the trends.

Absolutely, good point.
But look at spaghetti models right above.
Very clustered at least 100-200 miles offshore of South/Central Florida.
Not out of the woods, need to watch, however; discussions about contra flow evacuations and a Hurricane hit are way too excessive.

Excessive yes but I've seen far too many members practically sounding the all is clear for florida and carolinas. This isn't wise either. We're talking 5 or so days out so a shift 100 west would be well in the margin of error.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

140 miles off shore on the West side of a Hurricane isn't much of a threat.
Don't see anything reliable yet putting Hurricane conditions on shore in South or Central Florida yet.
Of course we need to be vigilant as maybe the models and/or forecast will bring the area into the crosshairs; but that has not happened yet.
Florida residents on the site need to take a deep breath and relax a little.
If I didn't look at the models and forecast and just read the comments here, I would think that we are in the middle of the cone!

Its all about the trends.

Absolutely, good point.
But look at spaghetti models right above.
Very clustered at least 100-200 miles offshore of South/Central Florida.
Not out of the woods, need to watch, however; discussions about contra flow evacuations and a Hurricane hit are way too excessive.

I absolutely agree with you there. 4-5 days out even if the crosshairs are on your location is too far out for that talk. My feeling is the crosshairs will probably move at some point in the time frame and it could be right but it doesn't have to move far left to cause great concern.

[floridasun78]

i got feeling discussion of 11pm could be coming out bit late because need study models bit more before writing discussion

[adam0983]

I see a west shift at 11pm