ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

1900,

That blob of super cold tops east of the eye is super weird. Never seen anything like that in a borderline cat/5 cane.

Looks like some active convection in a confluent band. We're probably getting some extra convergence on the east side due to the low level trades moving faster than Matthew and running into the system.

I think you are right, and I think it will continue to go W/SW at a decent clip for a while because the trades are still strong

At this intensity/circulation depth, Matthew should actually be moving fairly independently of the low level trades. If one is to use the CIMSS steering analysis guidance, Matthew is currently right on the cusp between their two deepest layers. An a sustained wind between 130-145 kt would support using the deepest steering layer (700 mb-200 mb) while a pressure of 945 mb would support using the second deepest (850 mb-250 mb). Either way, that's above the 850 mb and below flow associated with the low level trades.

[1900hurricane]

Somewhat expecting a pressure below 940 mb this upcoming pass.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Somewhat expecting a pressure below 940 mb this upcoming pass.

940mb...

012500 1320N 07204W 6984 02641 9402 +195 +092 096007 012 029 000 00

[EquusStorm]

Look at the symmetry of the eye and the little southwestern jerk in the last couple frames. Hate to speculate, but I don't see how this can avoid at least a 135-140kt upgrade very soon.

[Hammy]

Looks like it levelled off, at 155...

Any reason they bypassed the NE quad?

[SouthFLTropics]

This current WSW motion reminds me of Matthew's former name Mitch. As most recall Mitch was supposed to curve into the GOM but intensified and dove SW into Central America instead. To this day it is still one of the all time big forecast bust by the NHC. No one saw that SW motion continuing like it did.

[tropicwatch]

http://i.imgur.com/ypr70Tc.gif

http://i.imgur.com/5BQehKL.gif[/quote]

Wonder if he wants to visit the Panama Canal

[Yellow Evan]

138 knot SFMR supports 140. FL have never really been higher than SFMR the entire time.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, this honestly has defied all expectations. It's STILL moving WSW/SW. It looks to have missed the forecast point to its north, although not by much.

[Ntxw]

The eye is looking pretty good now. This is worthy of 140kts+

[Hammy]

138 knot SFMR supports 140. FL have never really been higher than SFMR the entire time.

They look flagged again, high rain rate.

[Blinhart]

http://i.imgur.com/ypr70Tc.gif

http://i.imgur.com/5BQehKL.gif

Wonder if he wants to visit the Panama Canal [/quote]

That is what I was thinking looking at those steering currents.

[Sanibel]

Probably leveled because it is bumping up against a steering feature and isn't flat-lining west...

[TimeZone]

155 MPH curse strikes again.

[Blinhart]

I still think this could reach 190 MPH if not stronger.

[Bhuggs]

I've been watching these storms my whole life as our family income depended on large storms (my dad was a catastrophe insurance adjuster and I am as well), after Katrina, my point of view changed on the whole -removed- thing. What I will say is I am beginning my preps for going to work a hurricane. I have been put on standby today by many companies. This could easily go ots, but the worst case scenario is still on the table. I hope we have enough warning for everyone to get to a safe space. There is potential for a catastrophic amount of propert damage

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DBrownie23/status/782032124614352896

[tatertawt24]

155 MPH curse strikes again.

I'm losing my mind.

[Ntxw]

Again the eye just needs to warm a little more

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2016 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 13:19:44 N Lon : 71:56:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 940.7mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.8 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +2.2C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[MaineWeatherNut]

155 MPH curse strikes again.

I'm losing my mind.

It's not like this is the last chance it has to strengthen. So MAYBE it's leveled off but it still has a even better environment and higher heat content still to traverse over the weekend.