ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance. BAMD into South Florida and noticeable NW bend with several models

[stormreader]

What's highly concerning to me is that the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/UKMET don't show Matthew at peak now, rather they show Matthew peaking as it makes landfall in Cuba or in the Bahamas.

I think you just made an excellent point though that should be somewhat comforting...models can and will be wrong. They didn't show this strength whereas they could be just as wrong with the high strength in the Bahamas. It could end up weaker, especially after impacting Cuba.

It's true. Landfall ( maybe two) before nearing Fl, it might not have the same intensity. But in general I think a minimum intensity of about 120 mph should be expected.

[DESTRUCTION5]

00z models show the westward jog...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I have a very good question about intensity. What are the chances Matthew will gradually weaken consistently after that north turn/ pass over Cuba.. making it a low cat 2, cat 1 or remnants by the time (and if) it hits the US? I question this because almost all of the models indicate the weakening will be short lived before strengthening again while the NHC thinks it'll die off when it weakens.

Interaction with land will have 2 major impacts on Matthew. First, the core will be severely disrupted, resulting in a significant drop in intensity. Second, the wind field will expand considerably, perhaps to twice the size south of Cuba. After the wind field expansion it may take a while to regain its core and intensify. Think Ike in 2008. It never could get its core going before landfall after passing over Cuba twice. It was getting pretty close, though, as it moved over us.

I looked at the 12Z EC ensembles and it appears that the operational run is an outlier. Most of the 50 ensemble members take Matthew out to sea to the northeast. I don't believe the 12Z EC, but I do think that Matthew may pass close enough to the Carolinas to brush them with TS winds, particularly since its wind field will be much larger by then.

I see your not buying the Euro...But I don't see you commenting on the GFS getting closer in yet again?

I see 57 not acknowledging a threat to our location and yet here is the super consistent GFS model trending west and now with a position, what, maybe 140 miles from Florida? Can't for the life of me see how this doesn't constitute a threat.

[pgoss11]

00z models show the westward jog...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

Doesn't look too good for the Carolinas

[centuryv58]

Interaction with land will have 2 major impacts on Matthew. First, the core will be severely disrupted, resulting in a significant drop in intensity. Second, the wind field will expand considerably, perhaps to twice the size south of Cuba. After the wind field expansion it may take a while to regain its core and intensify. Think Ike in 2008. It never could get its core going before landfall after passing over Cuba twice. It was getting pretty close, though, as it moved over us.

I looked at the 12Z EC ensembles and it appears that the operational run is an outlier. Most of the 50 ensemble members take Matthew out to sea to the northeast. I don't believe the 12Z EC, but I do think that Matthew may pass close enough to the Carolinas to brush them with TS winds, particularly since its wind field will be much larger by then.

I see your not buying the Euro...But I don't see you commenting on the GFS getting closer in yet again?

I see 57 not acknowledging a threat to our location and yet here is the super consistent GFS model trending west and now with a position, what, maybe 140 miles from Florida? Can't for the life of me see how this doesn't constitute a threat.

I believe this may be an older post before the latest model runs? As has been repeated endlessly,. FL is not our of the woods.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm surprised that meteorologist wxman feels pretty confident that this is still going to go out to sea. I felt that way yesterday but not so confident in that today after seeing the slow model migration westward.

[Ken711]

00z models show the westward jog...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

Doesn't look too good for the Carolinas

Just hope it makes the NE turn.

[Hurricaneman]

00z models show the westward jog...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

Doesn't look too good for the Carolinas

Or Florida for that matter, could this be a triple US landfall possibility

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I'm surprised that meteorologist wxman feels pretty confident that this is still going to go out to sea. I felt that way yesterday but not so confident in that today after seeing the slow model migration westward.

The westward trend of the model consensus has been steady now for at least three days including the latest 00z. Until I see that move east I will be very concerned here on the east coast of Florida.

[adam0983]

The Euro runs should be interesting I expect a rest shift at 11pm

[adam0983]

The Euro runs should be interesting I expect a west shift at 11pm

[bamajammer4eva]

Intensity plot from

http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

[p1nheadlarry]

00z models show the westward jog...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

Doesn't look too good for the Carolinas

The westward jogs have me watching very closely, but I'm thinking climo trough should push it out before it hits, however late to the party it may be. Could this be anomalous like Hazel or Sandy? Sure I guess.

[SouthernBreeze]

Wow, those are some high gusts! I'm hoping thats gusts & not sustained!

[Ntxw]

I'm surprised that meteorologist wxman feels pretty confident that this is still going to go out to sea. I felt that way yesterday but not so confident in that today after seeing the slow model migration westward.

Wxman57 noted that's what the majority of EC ensembles suggested, he didn't specifically note that it was going out to sea. He was giving his interpretation of what a cluster of guidance was showing.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z models show the westward jog...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

BAMD is worst case scenario for South Florida. Would put entire metropolitan South Florida in the East Quad.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not convinced this goes OTS, latest GFS has a much weaker trough off the New England Coast by Oct.5th and the Trough in the upper plains further north looking more like the energy there heads up into Canada. I think there is a real possibility that ridging builds back from the Atlantic back into the Mid-Atlantic to New England and Mathew gets trapped.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not convinced this goes OTS, latest GFS has a much weaker trough off the New England Coast by Oct.5th and the Trough in the upper plains further north looking more like the energy there heads up into Canada. I think there is a real possibility that ridging builds back from the Atlantic back into the Mid-Atlantic to New England and Mathew gets trapped.

I think the 12z ECM Operational is onto something with that!

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm surprised that meteorologist wxman feels pretty confident that this is still going to go out to sea. I felt that way yesterday but not so confident in that today after seeing the slow model migration westward.

Wxman57 noted that's what the majority of EC ensembles suggested, he didn't specifically note that it was going out to sea. He was giving his interpretation of what a cluster of guidance was showing.

Yea but I'm pretty sure he said that the Carolinas should tropical storm(not hurricane force winds) which leads me to believe he expects it to stay off shore