ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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tgenius
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2361 Postby tgenius » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:Pretty decent SW dip in progress looking at the Floater

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


No kidding.. with the eye you can get a better idea of movement, but it still could be a wobble...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2362 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:Pretty decent SW dip in progress looking at the Floater

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


Looks like it's heading more sw than wsw, looks like it's heading for Columbia
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2363 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:14 pm

This looks like it's pulling an Isidore (2002) turning straight south instead of west followed by north--could this do the same and end up stalling out?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2364 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:15 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Woof.

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2016AL14/4KMSRBDC/2016AL14_4KMSRBDC_201610010045.jpg[img]

1900,

That blob of super cold tops east of the eye is super weird. Never seen anything like that in a borderline cat/5 cane.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2365 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:15 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Based on the latest VDM compared to the 8pm advisory location. Matthew might be just wobbling around and potentially going stationary. Next pass could be telling. 8-)

Aric Dunn wrote:seems to have increased forward wsw motion again.. this is going to be the key night it will pass all the models turning points tonight if it does not slow down and turn... then everything else is open..


Which is it? :double:
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2366 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:16 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2016 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 13:23:04 N Lon : 71:51:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 942.8mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.6 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2367 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:17 pm

jeez man it's still intensifying. OW Eye looks very close to WMG and CMG ring is almost there...

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2368 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:17 pm

Looking even better with -80C redeveloping over the northern quad of the eyewall.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2369 Postby TimeZone » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:18 pm

I believe this will be a cat 5 by 11pm.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2370 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:18 pm

Image

Very symmetrical hurricane. CMG ring with OW (and warming) eye. Could reach T7.0 or even T7.5 for a frame or two. No signs of an ERC yet really.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2371 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:18 pm

There is still a ton of lightning in the western eyewall. And I think that band is a result of the intensity and slow movement.

Image
Last edited by Hammy on Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2372 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Woof.

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2016AL14/4KMSRBDC/2016AL14_4KMSRBDC_201610010045.jpg[img]

1900,

That blob of super cold tops east of the eye is super weird. Never seen anything like that in a borderline cat/5 cane.

Looks like some active convection in a confluent band. We're probably getting some extra convergence on the east side due to the low level trades moving faster than Matthew and running into the system.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2373 Postby stormreader » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:22 pm

Image
Eye has gotten even better defined. Perfectly clear and circular as Mathew continues strong WSW movement.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2374 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:22 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Woof.

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2016AL14/4KMSRBDC/2016AL14_4KMSRBDC_201610010045.jpg[img]

1900,

That blob of super cold tops east of the eye is super weird. Never seen anything like that in a borderline cat/5 cane.

Looks like some active convection in a confluent band. We're probably getting some extra convergence on the east side due to the low level trades moving faster than Matthew and running into the system.


I think you are right, and I think it will continue to go W/SW at a decent clip for a while because the trades are still strong
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2375 Postby tatertawt24 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:24 pm

stormreader wrote:Image
Eye has gotten even better defined. Perfectly clear and circular as Mathew continues strong WSW movement.


The eye reminds me a lot of Rita, for some reason.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2376 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:26 pm

stormreader wrote:Image
Eye has gotten even better defined. Perfectly clear and circular as Mathew continues strong WSW movement.


Unfreakingreal...Never would have thought he would get this strong. Scary for whatever land mass he comes in contact with first.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2377 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:26 pm

:uarrow: Rita's eye was much warmer though.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2378 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:27 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Rita's eye was much warmer though.


Isn't that partially because it was larger?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2379 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:28 pm

Hammy wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Rita's eye was much warmer though.


Isn't that partially because it was larger?


Not necessarily. Patrica had a 30C eye as a pinhole.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2380 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:30 pm

Don't get married to the eye :D

Wilma went from tiny pinhole to huge crater during it's Major lifetime.
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