ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

They could issue a position update if they decide to upgrade, similar to what they did when it reached hurricane intensity.

[1900hurricane]

Anxiously awaiting the center dropsonde and VDM.

[tropicwatch]

!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)

That wind measurement was flagged.

[Ntxw]

!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)

Matthew is just EXPLODING!!! However, there is NOOOOO WAY it's going to pull a Patricia (not even close).

You just never know. If we had continuous Recon in Patricia, who knows what we would have found as it was on its way up. But there is no indication the CDG is going to wrap all the way around (something I have never seen in the Atlantic).

The pressure gradient in Patricia was also out of this world too. The convection was a lot colder. For an Atlantic storm though this is about as good as it gets. No doubt Cat 5 soon.

[NotoSans]

Center dropsonde says 943 (945 mb with 20 kt surface winds).

[SunnyThoughts]

REcon should stay in the storm until the next update...they will make a couple more passes and if it warrants a cat 5 upgrade, Im sure they will at the next update.

[1900hurricane]

Matthew is just EXPLODING!!! However, there is NOOOOO WAY it's going to pull a Patricia (not even close).

You just never know. If we had continuous Recon in Patricia, who knows what we would have found as it was on its way up. But there is no indication the CDG is going to wrap all the way around (something I have never seen in the Atlantic).

Silly question, but what does CDG stand for?

CDG is cold dark grey, the coldest IR temp breakpoint on the BD enhanced IR. The cold dark grey shade is temps -81*C and colder.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Still no sign of a Secondary Wind Maxima. So no ERC on the Horizon.

[Nate-Gillson]

You just never know. If we had continuous Recon in Patricia, who knows what we would have found as it was on its way up. But there is no indication the CDG is going to wrap all the way around (something I have never seen in the Atlantic).

Silly question, but what does CDG stand for?

CDG is cold dark grey, the coldest IR temp breakpoint on the BD enhanced IR.

Oh ok. Also, just found out that the absurd SFMR reading was flagged.

[tatertawt24]

If they upgrade, would this be the highest pressure for a cat 5 ever? The only one I can think of that might have it beat would be Felix...

[TheAustinMan]

!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)

That wind measurement was flagged.

The 143kt HDOB reading has a flag code of "01" which means possibly suspect temperature/dew point readings, but does not flag the SFMR estimate.

[CrazyC83]

If they upgrade, would this be the highest pressure for a cat 5 ever? The only one I can think of that might have it beat would be Felix...

I believe it would be, at least for one that was reliably measured. I might be a bit hesitant to upgrade right now for that reason, but Felix was 939 with 140 kt winds and 934 with 150 kt winds...

Typically pressures are higher in the deep tropics especially in the vicinity of a ridge.

[TimeZone]

Likely supports an intensity of at least 155 MPH.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Silly question, but what does CDG stand for?

CDG is cold dark grey, the coldest IR temp breakpoint on the BD enhanced IR.

Oh ok. Also, just found out that the absurd SFMR reading was flagged.

Not all of them were flagged.

[abajan]

How likely is Cat 5 by morning at this rate?

... I can't believe its been 9 years since the Atlantic had a CAT5...that's just mind-blowing. The basin has been turned off for so long now ...

Actually, if it were to make it to Cat 5, that would be better than average, because Cat 5s are rare and happen only once per decade on average. (At least. that's what I read sometime ago.) It's just that so many of them have occurred since the start of the active Atlantic hurricane cycle began in the '90s, that we think it;s normal to have them every couple of years.

[WmE]

If they upgrade, would this be the highest pressure for a cat 5 ever? The only one I can think of that might have it beat would be Felix...

Highest pressure for a Category 5 ever was Edith 1971 with 943 mbar.

[MGC]

Pressure is kind of high for this to be a CAT-5, also the satellite IR image don't have a solid donut of cold cloud tops yet....so, I don't think Matthew is a 5 yet. It is quite possible and somewhat likely that Matthew could obtain that intensity though.....MGC

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If they upgrade, would this be the highest pressure for a cat 5 ever? The only one I can think of that might have it beat would be Felix...

For the Atlantic the highest one I can see is Hurricane Edith (1971) at 943mb. Gustav was close to a Category 5 at a similar MSLP.

[NotoSans]

It appears that NHC goes with 135 kt.

AL, 14, 2016100100, , BEST, 0, 134N, 720W, 135, 943, HU, 34, NEQ, 180, 60, 50, 170, 1007, 160, 10, 0, 15, L, 0, , 0, 0, MATTHEW, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,

[Ntxw]

If it's eye can warm a little more. I think that's a factor from making it a clear cut cat 5 right now, not quite the perfect eye yet.