ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

143 SFMR supports 140, but it might be suspect.

[OntarioEggplant]

143 KT SFMR NW Quad....

[Ntxw]

[MaineWeatherNut]

138kts and 941.8mb pressure this pass...

[CrazyC83]

I think we now have a Cat 5.

143 kt SFMR reading just recorded - although the flight level winds are still below 140. At the very least 135 kt.

[Hammy]

143 KT SFMR NW Quad....

138kt is 159 mph, with low rain rate, so that should be enough.

[tatertawt24]

I wonder what the chances are--if recon does miss the peak intensity--that it gets upgraded post-season, ala Emily. I say that because I don't remember that being done in quite some time.

If it warrants it, NHC will do it. They extrapolated an 872 mb pressure between recon missions with Patricia in the postseason just last year.

...Well I guess I don't have to worry about it anymore!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)

[CrazyC83]

The only concern might be that the pressure - about 941mb - is quite high for a Cat 5.

[Kazmit]

I wonder what the chances are--if recon does miss the peak intensity--that it gets upgraded post-season, ala Emily. I say that because I don't remember that being done in quite some time.

I hope we do get recon in there, just to increase the chances that it reaches Cat 5, and also to more accurately measure the intensity. Regardless, I think this is just about there anyway.

[Nate-Gillson]

!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)

Matthew is just EXPLODING!!! However, there is NOOOOO WAY it's going to pull a Patricia (not even close).

PS: I see a special advisory coming.

[pgoss11]

!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)

This is absolutely insane this rate of intensification! Praying for Jamaica.

[NDG]

Can't help but to wonder if there's something about the topography of the coast of Venezuela that causes hurricanes in the area of 70-74W and 13-14N to deepen 50-60 knots in 24 hours. Felix's intensification in 2007 was also equally as baffling. Remember, Matthew was a sheared TS yesterday morning and now it's nearly a Cat 5.

Not sure about the topography of Venezuela but that it developed a small inner core close to S.A. like Felix did staying away from the strong low level diverging winds closer to Hispaniola, is what I am thinking why they both gained so much strength in such a short time in the same general area.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2016 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 13:24:31 N Lon : 71:43:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 945.0mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -12.6C Cloud Region Temp : -76.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[toad strangler]

No change in 8PM cone except for M replacing H pre Cuba

[gatorcane]

Still moving WSW

[NotoSans]

Flight-level to SFMR winds ratio remains very close to 1:1, which is typical for storms undergoing RI.
NHC may go with either 135 or 140 kt, but I would still like to see higher flight-level winds before calling Matthew a Cat 5.

[CrazyC83]

!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)

Matthew is just EXPLODING!!! However, there is NOOOOO WAY it's going to pull a Patricia (not even close).

You just never know. If we had continuous Recon in Patricia, who knows what we would have found as it was on its way up. But there is no indication the CDG is going to wrap all the way around (something I have never seen in the Atlantic).

[CrazyC83]

!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)

Matthew is just EXPLODING!!! However, there is NOOOOO WAY it's going to pull a Patricia (not even close).

PS: I see a special advisory coming.

I don't think they would issue a Special this late in the game. Most likely just a Tropical Cyclone Update and then update the intensities at 11.

[Nate-Gillson]

!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)

Matthew is just EXPLODING!!! However, there is NOOOOO WAY it's going to pull a Patricia (not even close).

You just never know. If we had continuous Recon in Patricia, who knows what we would have found as it was on its way up. But there is no indication the CDG is going to wrap all the way around (something I have never seen in the Atlantic).

Silly question, but what does CDG stand for?