ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
18Z GFS Similar to yesterday's JMA and today's to some extent.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
A little shift to the west and it's riding the east coast of Florida from the Keys to Jacksonville. Worst possible scenario.
Last edited by miamijaaz on Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I can't believe this run. it is turning slowly east.
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M a r k
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TheDreamTraveler
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
This is looking really bad for the Carolinas. Thank God UNCW will be on fall break next weekend.
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BensonTCwatcher
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Look at that low digging into Texas. That set up happens 1 day faster and the storm a little slower and this is coming into the Gulf
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Expecting more west shifts...this isn't over yet.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
TimeZone wrote:There is your turn. Finally.
Not feeling really comforted by that at the moment.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
WOW... Cat 4/5 within reasonably close range @120 hours just offshore SFL...
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TheDreamTraveler
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Starting to slowly move Northeast but wow. If Florida and the Carolinas all manage to just BARELY scrape by then I'm going to be shocked.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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M a r k
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Latest GFS would put hurricane force winds up the entire east coast of Florida with tropical storm force winds covering most of the central and western peninsula. The current Gfs trend over the last 24 hours is looking very bad for Florida.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jlauderdal
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Blown Away wrote:144 hrs... Cat 5 just E of Cape Canaveral... NNW movement...
Im less than 5 miles from.the cape now..will remember the scenery before it was wiped out by Matthew...these west trends are becoming a major concern with vrery intense matthew lurking even if its 100 miles,offshire it requires max preps as it approaches
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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M a r k
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
The beach erosion from the 18z GFS would be colossal.
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BensonTCwatcher
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Well there goes the seafood and blues festival in Carolina Beach...That angle would put east winds and storm surge in the inlets...at high tide...that's trouble
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TheDreamTraveler
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Up to 180 hours that's looking like the case. Hard to believe its just cutting a line all the way from Florida, through Georgia, South and North Carolina. If it gets any amount closer than this it's going to be bad. The 0z model runs will be telling.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
These westward trends gotta stop...next few runs it will hit Florida.
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