ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[USTropics]

An ensemble forecast comprises multiple realisations for a single forecast time and location. The different realisations are generated through applying different perturbations to a single control forecast. For the ECMWF medium-range forecasting system, the control forecast is a coarser-resolution realisation of the HRES forecast (the high-resolution forecast).

[Raebie]

An ensemble forecast comprises multiple realisations for a single forecast time and location. The different realisations are generated through applying different perturbations to a single control forecast. For the ECMWF medium-range forecasting system, the control forecast is a coarser-resolution realisation of the HRES forecast (the high-resolution forecast).

Should have specified in English.

[chaser1]

So, a variable "average" solution that should not be discounted yet one which nonetheless ignores the basis for the divergent solution that the individual EURO members contribute; each weighted uniquely for those parameters that define each of them, right?

[gatorcane]

Right but how does this control ECMWF compare to what I see on tropicaltidbits.com? There is an ECMWF and EPS on there.

[Evil Jeremy]

Will any of the G-IV data from today be included with the 18z model suite, like yesterday?

[KWT]

Not long till the 18z GFS and the other models of the 18z suite come out. Wonder what we will get this time?!

[Emmett_Brown]

For me, the model trends today have been:

1. Overall slightly W
2. The GFS is a little slower, but still wildly different than the Euro in the long range
3. The Euro pulled the rug out from anyone that had been feeling more certain about the long range
4. The real time motion of the storm requiring small adjustments to track that could add up

[stormreader]

12Z NASA model, slowing and intensifying as it approaching South Florida at hour 120:

The NASA Model has been so close to my thinking on Mathew (last 3 days or so). It shows a further W crossing of Cuba. Would have to mean that the Carribean trek will not be true N but something like NNW. Would have to emerge somewhere near Key West.

[FLpanhandle91]

18z GFS initialized at 1000mb

[FLpanhandle91]

Still no turn at 18 hours.

[KWT]

18z GFS initialized at 1000mb

Higher resolution starts at 976mbs, obviously a fair way off but at least it shows a reasonable hurricane.

[FLpanhandle91]

Due west between hour 18 and 24.

[tolakram]

18z GFS initialized at 1000mb

Huh?

[tolakram]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093018/gfs_mslp_wind_watl_5.png

Due west between hour 18 and 24.

Ah,

use Surface Pressure & 10m wind speed for full res. It's not documented anywhere but that's the version that labels the actual surface pressure.

[KWT]

Still moving near due west out to 24hrs, pretty close to where the 12z run was but a little stronger, for probably obvious reasons.

Maybe 265....

[tolakram]

Trend

[KWT]

Turn northwards about to start at 30hrs, pretty much stopped moving at this point.

[FLpanhandle91]

Northwest turn at hour 30?

[Blown Away]

30 hrs... SE/Slower by a few miles from 12z...

[FLpanhandle91]

Can someone ELI 5 the implications of a stronger and slower storm in regards to ridging?