ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Exalt]

T5.5 still.

SSD hasn't updated yet, expect it to be a 6.0 or 6.5 tonight.

[terstorm1012]

[quote="La Sirena"

Thx so much! Why am I seeing more discussion of Key West? I can't believe I'm having such a hard time catching up lol.[/quote]

no problem!
Florida being in play depends on where it begins to turn north. Tomorrow afternoon and evening I think we'll really know. Right now I think this is going to be a direct strike on Jamaica near Kingston. If it goes west of Jamaica it'll be pretty hard for it to miss Florida I think.

[p1nheadlarry]

I hate to be the person who asked this....but, I had to go out for a few hours. WTH is going on? I'm trying to sort it out lol. I know it got to Cat 4. I left the house at 2:30 and it was a Cat 3. Did the models take a different route? The Euro had just come out before I left and it looked to be East of Florida still.

Any help will be greatly appreciated!

some models have underestimated the intensity. The ocean and atmosphere on the other hand are quite conducive for rapid intensification. Expect it to get stronger.

Thx so much! Why am I seeing more discussion of Key West? I can't believe I'm having such a hard time catching up lol.

Probably from heightened seas as it passes, and it could pass pretty close if it keeps nudging west.

[alienstorm]

This type of storm pumps up the ridge to its north and moves westward, note that the storm is now heading west maybe just slightly south of west. I expect SE Fla to be in the cone by no later than 5 AM tomorrow.

[mcheer23]

This type of storm pumps up the ridge to its north and moves westward, note that the storm is now heading west maybe just slightly south of west. I expect SE Fla to be in the cone by no later than 5 AM tomorrow.

Florida is already in the cone

[hurricaneCW]

I really hope this avoids Jamaica or is at least much weaker when it nears them. They don't need another Gilbert.

[OntarioEggplant]

This is going to be really bad for Jamaica. It's probably been a very long time since a storm this strong has approach the South shore of Jamaica from this angle.

[La Sirena]

[quote="La Sirena"

Thx so much! Why am I seeing more discussion of Key West? I can't believe I'm having such a hard time catching up lol.

no problem!
Florida being in play depends on where it begins to turn north. Tomorrow afternoon and evening I think we'll really know. Right now I think this is going to be a direct strike on Jamaica near Kingston. If it goes west of Jamaica it'll be pretty hard for it to miss Florida I think.[/quote]
Thanks Terstorm! I live in the lower Keys and have been watching but really didn't expect to see Key West mentioned. That's what I get for going to Happy Hour lol. Not surprised to see Matthew amp up to a Cat 4 but I'm a bit surprised to see the Keys mentioned. Many thanks again!

[SouthFLTropics]

Apart from the potential catastrophic outcome that may come, this is hands down the best storm we've seen in the Caribbean in quite some time. The sat presentation is beautiful. Us trackers here at S2K live for these moments but unfortunately it appears that Jamaica will be the first up to pay a heavy price. I wish them well and hope they prepare. This won't be devastating to one city...it will devastate their entire country.

[Macrocane]

Could be worse. Remember Joaquin's first advisory? NHC showed it only peaking at 30 knots and dissipating by 96 hours.

You're right, that was even worse, I had forgotten about that.

[La Sirena]

Apart from the potential catastrophic outcome that may come, this is hands down the best storm we've seen in the Caribbean in quite some time. The sat presentation is beautiful. Us trackers here at S2K live for these moments but unfortunately it appears that Jamaica will be the first up to pay a heavy price. I wish them well and hope they prepare. This won't be devastating to one city...it will devastate their entire country.

I'm torn between admiring it's beauty and fearing for everyone in his path. This is the damn wildest thing. I've only owned a home here for 2 years so I'm quite the newbie. All I can say is "wow".

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[Alyono]

I really hope this avoids Jamaica or is at least much weaker when it nears them. They don't need another Gilbert.

another Gilbert may be their best case scenario if it hits. I do not see how this can be weaker than a category 4 when it hits Jamaica

[boca]

Why didn't the NHC adjust the the cone to the left.They haven't budged the cone in 3 days and I wonder if they see something that makes them certain of their forecast.

[KWT]

I really hope this avoids Jamaica or is at least much weaker when it nears them. They don't need another Gilbert.

another Gilbert may be their best case scenario if it hits. I do not see how this can be weaker than a category 4 when it hits Jamaica

Wow thats a heck of a statement!

Mind you, I agree, pressure range is probably 925-935mbs IMO for that area...

[Exalt]

Why didn't the NHC adjust the the cone to the left.They haven't budged the cone in 3 days and I wonder if they see something that makes them certain of their forecast.

A SE Florida hit has been extremely questionable since the formation of Matthew, however a lot of the models are agreeing upon a miss on Florida, and a trending a probable NC/VA landfall.

However I do agree that the NHC should include more of FL in its cone though, and issue watches for the Keys as soon as Sunday.

[Yellow Evan]

CDO starting to become more symmetrical and its keeping its OW eye.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2016 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 13:33:26 N Lon : 71:27:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.1mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -6.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[TheProfessor]

My Goodness, take a nap a for an hour and a half and Matthew decides to explode again.

[tolakram]

Why didn't the NHC adjust the the cone to the left.They haven't budged the cone in 3 days and I wonder if they see something that makes them certain of their forecast.

A SE Florida hit has been extremely questionable since the formation of Matthew, however a lot of the models are agreeing upon a miss on Florida, and a trending a probable NC/VA landfall.

What models? I don't think they've moved the 5 day point because it's still in the middle of most of the guidance. Euro is slower, GFS is faster, no reason to move it yet.


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