ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[terstorm1012]

I know someone flying into Kingston tomorrow and staying until Tuesday. What kind of impacts will they experience there most likely (obviously it depends on the track)?

I personally would cancel my trip. I really think this will directly strike Jamaica, probably around Kingston, on Monday.

[KWT]

5 PM advisory has this at 120 kt. Cat 4. Hurricane Watch up for Jamaica.

I think they had no choice but to go to 120kts from those dropsonde reports. Those winds a little higher up will probably be brought down further before tomorrow morning I think, esp at D-max.

[Alyono]

"After 12 hours, a
gradual weakening is shown, following the trend of, but above nearly
all of the intensity guidance."

This from the TCD is NOT accurate. They basically rejected all global model output, which shows a significantly stronger storm on Monday than today

[Alyono]

I know someone flying into Kingston tomorrow and staying until Tuesday. What kind of impacts will they experience there most likely (obviously it depends on the track)?

if it hits Kingston directly, the city likely would be destroyed

[KWT]

Cycloneye, the key thing to note IMO is the east bend that was on the previous run is now gone, this is to reflect some of the models suggesting a bend back to the NNW.

[jdjaguar]

I know someone flying into Kingston tomorrow and staying until Tuesday. What kind of impacts will they experience there most likely (obviously it depends on the track)?

tell that someone to cancel trip

[NDG]

Really looking great now, going to make a run at category-5 that is for sure, looking closer and closer to what Felix did near this location in 2007...

I have been mentioning Felix all day long, I think the proximity to S.A. helped both of these systems staying away from the more diverging low level jet closer to Hispaniola.

[wxmann_91]

I know someone flying into Kingston tomorrow and staying until Tuesday. What kind of impacts will they experience there most likely (obviously it depends on the track)?

Would probably not go. Flight could be cancelled, given there is already a hurricane watch up and would most likely be upgraded to a warning by tomorrow.

[p1nheadlarry]

Given the lack of skill of the intensity guidance
thus far, this remains a low confidence forecast, and its possible
this could be conservative.

Is that right

[KWT]

I know someone flying into Kingston tomorrow and staying until Tuesday. What kind of impacts will they experience there most likely (obviously it depends on the track)?

Doesn't really need thinking about, probably going to be some major damage if this is as strong as the models predict...and indeed it seems the models are somewhat too weak at the moment.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

To provide some additional perspective, the last Cat. 4 to develop in the Caribbean was Hurricane Paloma* in 2008, 8 years ago.

[otowntiger]

New track slight bend to the west

looks straight north to me.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Why would the NHC show this weakening after 12 hours when in roughly 36 hours the environment is supposed to be even more conducive to strengthening?

[Alyono]

Why would the NHC show this weakening after 12 hours when in roughly 36 hours the environment is supposed to be even more conducive to strengthening?

Because DSHP and LGEM say so

I wouldn't be surprised if what really happens is this weakens, perhaps to cat 2 late tomorrow, then becomes a cat 5 by the time it hits Jamaica

[Weatherboy1]

Well, a 140-mph hurricane is nothing to mess around with. But still just cautiously watching here in South FL, rather than worrying too much. If modeling continues to shift west overnight though, then it's time to hit up Publix before the masses do!

[psyclone]

Slower and slightly west. rinse and repeat over a few forecast cycles and things change for florida east coasters big time. long days and nights ahead..

[KWT]

Why would the NHC show this weakening after 12 hours when in roughly 36 hours the environment is supposed to be even more conducive to strengthening?

They are following some of the models which suggests a slight weakening occurring - though I think they are very much behind the curve with this one, they are still using the same reasoning they were when they forecasted it to stay nearly static in strength, which REALLY busted badly.

[centuryv58]

"Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida." says NHC at 5pm.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Why would the NHC show this weakening after 12 hours when in roughly 36 hours the environment is supposed to be even more conducive to strengthening?

Because DSHP and LGEM say so

lol pretty poor reasoning if you ask me. When you look at what is happening right now and the environment and heat content a head of it you kind of have to accept the fact that the models have no idea what's going on and put your scientist hats on instead of hugging to the Models so tightly in fear of being wrong...

[gatorcane]

NHC snippet:

The NHC forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and is a little to the east of the multi-model
consensus at days 4 and 5.

The West edge of the cone could not get any closer to SE Florida without SE Florida being in the cone. I wonder if being a little east was so that SE Florida was not included intentionally?