ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

NHC is conservative, no surprise.

[Exalt]

looks like it is steadily heading west, how far west before the much anticipated turn will this thing get is the question?

They aren't predicting too far, however the amount of time it's supposed to stall will easily allow it to bomb to a Cat 5 considering current conditions. Wherever it hits in the Caribbean, it isn't going to be pretty, nor wherever it hits in the US if it manages to escape the mountains in Cuba and hold shape, since the models are predicting around Cat 4 strength near NC.

[p1nheadlarry]

Likely gravity waves from Matthew. Fairly typical with strong convection.

Wait, the same waves Einstein predicted that we just confirmed six-seven months ago?

Einstein predicted "gravitational" waves, whichis a completely different phenomenon than "gravity" waves.

Ah, just got the name wrong. I should know this stuff.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Anyone think an ERC is about to start? 15 miles is pretty small and I see its opened up. They didnt mention concentric eyewalls though

[GCANE]

New eyewall hot tower firing off.
Looks like this will continue to intensify into the night.

[KWT]

Getting a really classic look on the imagery now, looked good a few hours ago, now its starting to look more and more like a 115-125kts hurricane that it probably is.

Recon suggesting its getting stronger every single eyewall pass. Probably next recon mission will be the one to tell whether we go cat-5 or not...think its gotta be getting more possible.

Bet it looks like Felix in the next 6hrs!

[Stormcenter]

Matthew may end up plowing into Central America and forget to make it's turn.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone think an ERC is about to start? 15 miles is pretty small and I see its opened up. They didnt mention concentric eyewalls though

way to early for an ERC.


Also a lot of times when hurricanes bomb out they will due to high rotational effects bend left or dip wsw to sw..
remember katrina it dropped WSW to sw for nearly 6 to 8 hours before resuming its wnw motion.

..

I mean Willma ..

[p1nheadlarry]

Visible is looking very impressive. I also expect this could make a run at cat5, especially considering the low shear, minimal dry air, and high SSTs.

If it is expected to weaken a little bit, it has a great shot at 5 over the WCarib. No bueno.

[KWT]

Anyone think an ERC is about to start? 15 miles is pretty small and I see its opened up. They didnt mention concentric eyewalls though

15nm isn't big, but there is plenty of shrinkage in the tank still, Wilma's was TINY for example, this one isn't in that systems league, but that is a decent sized eye for strengthening rapidly.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Another thing of note, we've only had 2 category 4 storms since 2011. So even that in itself is a rarity. Let alone if it gets to cat 5 or not.

[gatorcane]

looks like it is steadily heading west, how far west before the much anticipated turn will this thing get is the question?

all the recon passes still show wsw.. has not changed.. no wobble watching

Yep keeps heading WSW you are right. In this case stronger storm = more west while that ridge is over top.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[wxmann_91]

Just 24 hr ago it was a minimal hurricane. Now a Cat 4 (almost certainly, just have to wait for official NHC confirmation). Impressive rate of deepening.

[Exalt]

Considering the extremely favorable conditions, immense slowdown, quick RI, and the significant amount of time that Matthew has in the Atlantic, could the first Cat 5 we've had in 9 years be in immediate reach? This could easily bomb out to a Cat 4 tonight, and it's forecasted to stay over water for another day or two, so it has the time considering it's current rate of intensification imo.

If an eyewall replacement cycle doesn't occur, I would think it's not out of the question. But it would not be good for Jamaica.

I doubt it. At this holy grail rate of intensification it simply doesn't have the time to. Not saying Matthew's any Patricia, but she had about the same conditions (space from land, SSTs, lower shear) to intensify, and didn't go through an ERC (until possibly arguably right before landfall when it was too late). If there were to be an ERC it'd probably be after it's fully bombed out, and possibly after its first landfall and fixes itself up before nearing CONUS.

[Hammy]

Another thing of note, we've only had 2 category 4 storms since 2011. So even that in itself is a rarity. Let alone if it gets to cat 5 or not.

Not to mention this would be the first Cat 4 in September since 2011 if it can strengthen a bit more by the end of the day.

(As an aside, what's your avatar from?)

[1900hurricane]

Anyone think an ERC is about to start? 15 miles is pretty small and I see its opened up. They didnt mention concentric eyewalls though

Radar doesn't suggest an eyewall replacement cycle.

[BobHarlem]

Dvorak looks like it's up to 6.5, can anyone else verify that?

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/781951230029553664

[RickM]

It's really funny hearing the natives talk about Matthew Here in Grand Cayman. All saying it's not going to hit, maybe some rain. They're a lot more optimistic than I am!

[TimeZone]

Seems like Matthew has had enough of this cat 5 drought in the Atlantic. I don't think anybody expected this thing to blow up THIS FAST. I know I didn't.