THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK, LAKE ONTARIO, AND LAKE ERIE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 235 AM UNTIL 800 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF ROCHESTER NEW YORK TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN NEW YORK.
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 933...
DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN NY CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES AT THE SURFACE SUGGESTING SOME MIXING IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAP IS WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS AND LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE SPREAD NWD INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35 KT...EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELLS OR SMALL SCALE BOW ECHOES CAN BE EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS WRN NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...EVANS
