ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe some good news. If it has a pinhole eye those don't tend to last very long before EWRC begins.

Yes, but the RMW would be much larger.

[GCANE]

Not making the turn yet and about 5hrs fast

[RL3AO]

OK, so I pulled this graphic up:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 719,35.853

From the looks of it, the "strong trough" that's supposed to pick this thing up (now located over KY? Cause I don't see anything strong enough out in the Rockies). The one over KY looks like it only dives down as far south as GA, and not very strong....

So am I wrong to think this graphic could show me the future steering currents for Matt?

The link you gave is looking near the surface (1000 mb). That won't show steering. You could use 500 mb (hPa) and go forward with that site to see what the GFS shows.

[tolakram]

IR LOOP

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-68&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[Aric Dunn]

Not making the turn yet and about 5hrs fast

yeah its been south and faster since its development. they have to adjust every package.

[Blinhart]

I have no doubt that this system will do totally different than what everyone expects as all systems have done all year. I can see this system getting up to around 190 mph if not stronger if it decides to stay away from land a little longer.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2016 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 13:27:34 N Lon : 71:15:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 962.2mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 6.1 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -20.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[baitism]

Does anyone have the link to the local radar near Matthew? I was at work and didn't get a chance to bookmark it earlier. Thanks.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT24 KNES 301801
TCSNTL

A. 14L (MATTHEW)

B. 30/1745Z

C. 13.5N

D. 71.3W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON BL EMBEDDED GRAY SHADE WITH MG EYE
SURROUNDED BY WH. PT=5.0. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[Aric Dunn]

check the flow out a head of on the western carrib. still very strong ene to wsw flow all the way to central America ... ridging to the north is still very pronounced dont expect a turn for another 24 plus hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[Michele B]

OK, so I pulled this graphic up:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 719,35.853

From the looks of it, the "strong trough" that's supposed to pick this thing up (now located over KY? Cause I don't see anything strong enough out in the Rockies). The one over KY looks like it only dives down as far south as GA, and not very strong....

So am I wrong to think this graphic could show me the future steering currents for Matt?

The link you gave is looking near the surface (1000 mb). That won't show steering. You could use 500 mb (hPa) and go forward with that site to see what the GFS shows.

Oh, WOW! I did put in 500mb and it's an awesome shot!

Thanks for the tip. Still not sure it tells me what I was looking for, but it definitely shows a stronger steering element in the upper atmosphere. Both in the eastern CONUS, and out west later in the week.

[mcheer23]

I have no doubt that this system will do totally different than what everyone expects as all systems have done all year. I can see this system getting up to around 190 mph if not stronger if it decides to stay away from land a little longer.

Nah.

[Nimbus]

Storms with pinhole eyes can ramp up fast like that.
Not sure the intensity in this case will effect the upper air environment via pumping the subtropical ridging. Might tend to follow the deep layer BAM rather than the Medium though and of course the outflow and smaller core resists shear better..

If this gets far enough west before the eyewall replacement cycle shear might knock it down, these storms are more vulnerable to shear during the EWRC.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The most impressive thing to me is how this thing has managed to hold its own and kind of create its own environment to allow it to strengthen and keep strengthening with the shear that's been in front of it. Remember this thing was a naked swirl only 36 hours ago. Amazing transformation. And that pinhole eye is looking even better as we speak.

[RL3AO]

Thanks for the tip. Still not sure it tells me what I was looking for, but it definitely shows a stronger steering element in the upper atmosphere. Both in the eastern CONUS, and out west later in the week.

My favorite thing I like to show people on that website is the polar vortex. If you go to 10 hPa and look over the South Pole, you can really see it in action.

[KWT]

Maybe some good news. If it has a pinhole eye those don't tend to last very long before EWRC begins.

Yes, but the RMW would be much larger.

Yep, land will also probably help to spread this system out further and I'd imagine in the Bahamas this will be quite a large system. Still losing latitude, lets see what the NHC does in the next hour, think they are going to have to bend that track in the latter part of the run back to due north to reflect the uncertainty at that point.

[BobHarlem]

New vortex at 954mb (Drop From the 2PM advisory at 960mb)

[Cunxi Huang]

New vortex at 954mb (Drop From the 2PM advisory at 960mb)

that's EXTRAP which means it's an estimation...

[Yellow Evan]

T6.0. OW eye surrounded by W embedded in B.

[1900hurricane]

The eye is beginning to break off-white as of 1915Z.