ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[TimeZone]

Weird run. Looks like Euro wants Matthew to hang around until Christmas at this rate. Not buying that run, at all.

[SouthFLTropics]

if you run the loop. it actually does a look just like jeanne did.. craziness.. and nearly the exact same spot

It actually looks like the loop is closer in than Jeanne was. Jeanne was almost directly north at 72 west and 26 north when she looped. This is much closer. That's a scary run by the Euro. I'm glad it's 10 days out but I'm not liking what I'm seeing.

[Aric Dunn]

Well the synoptic flight has begun ..00z models should be interesting as its going to sample the eastern gulf where the upper low is supposed to form

[ronjon]

Forecasters at NHC getting their magic 8 ball out for forecast guidance now!

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF animation:

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the trough phase allows the trough to move out too quickly for a full recurve this run. For anyone who has followed noreasters, these trough phases can be tricky even within a couple of days. I'd say we've still got quite a low confidence affair beyond tau 120.

[hurricaneCW]

Gfs vs Euro, much stronger trough on gfs interacts with Matthew and it pulls NE before phasing near Maine. Euro has much weaker trough so it misses the connection and sort of meanders in weak steering currents as a ridge builds overhead.

If that were true then Matthew would be around for at least 2 weeks till mid October.

[Aric Dunn]

if you run the loop. it actually does a look just like jeanne did.. craziness.. and nearly the exact same spot

It actually looks like the loop is closer in than Jeanne was. Jeanne was almost directly north of 72 west and 26 north when she looped. This is much closer. That's a scary run by the Euro. I'm glad it's 10 days out but I'm not liking what I'm seeing.

still a significant shift in synoptic thinking along with many members of GFS as well as UKMET ... and bam's another interesting day of models coming

[drezee]

if you run the loop. it actually does a look just like jeanne did.. craziness.. and nearly the exact same spot

It actually looks like the loop is closer in than Jeanne was. Jeanne was almost directly north of 72 west and 26 north when she looped. This is much closer. That's a scary run by the Euro. I'm glad it's 10 days out but I'm not liking what I'm seeing.

I assure the 500 mb pattern at 120hrs is enough to make those who are vets or Mets stand up in their couch like WTH....the second trough can't get it...there is nothing else upstream to stop an eventual turn west...with the pattern setup at 120...that is the euro wheelhouse too....1000 pages here we come....caveat maybe a third trough if it stalls

[BobHarlem]

Joaquin like, except further west, euro saying a Cat 3-5 more or less stalled over the Bahamas for 5 days. Good luck NHC and pray it is wrong for the Bahama's sake. This is a lot closer to Nassau and some of the more populated Islands.

[OuterBanker]

Wow! Just saw the 12z European. Pretty much stalls in the Bahamas. With a 924mb center it would pretty much destroy the Bahamas. Wouldn't wish that on anyone.

[SFLcane]

Scary stuff no doupt a cat 5 monster dancing around South Florida.

[wxman57]

12Z EC is MUCH slower than the GFS into the Bahamas - Friday vs. Wednesday near Eleuthera. This gives the high pressure area time to build north of it and block it until the next front arrives. Joaquin-II...

I don't buy the EC's solution yet, but I wouldn't rule it out.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12Z EC is MUCH slower than the GFS into the Bahamas - Friday vs. Wednesday near Eleuthera. This gives the high pressure area time to build north of it and block it until the next front arrives. Joaquin-II...

I don't buy the EC's solution yet, but I wouldn't rule it out.

So, even with the stall on the ECMWF would eventually be OTS (away from CONUS)?

[SouthFLTropics]

Hands down I think the Euro just gave us one of the most eye opening and fascinating model runs of 2016 so far. Definitely made for an entertaining 1.5 hours.

[miamijaaz]

The Euro looks like a GT350 following a narrow mountain road--left, right, left, right, STOP, reverse

[tolakram]

still a significant shift in synoptic thinking along with many members of GFS as well as UKMET ... and bam's another interesting day of models coming

You mentioned the deep NAM and Jeanine. Jinxed it. But seriously, I think the end of the run is corrupt, the euro usually doesn't spawn all kinds of garbage lows and some of the graphics look misplaced, especially at the 850 level.

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z EC is MUCH slower than the GFS into the Bahamas - Friday vs. Wednesday near Eleuthera. This gives the high pressure area time to build north of it and block it until the next front arrives. Joaquin-II...

I don't buy the EC's solution yet, but I wouldn't rule it out.

So, even with the stall on the ECMWF would eventually be OTS (away from CONUS)?

I wouldn't count on that...As someone else pointed out, I don't see much coming across the CONUS that would sweep it out to sea. Under the ridge would probably do a cyclonic loop and head west, ala Jeanne.

[SFLcane]

Stop for a second... Can you image a 930mb cyclone or what ever heading wnw nearing SFL for a moment? Like Floyd SFL would likely face a hurricane warning for the simple reason " what if doesn't turn"

[OntarioEggplant]

Well that changes almost everything. Timing is going to be ridiculously critical in this case. The tiniest difference now can make huge changes later.