ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[caneseddy]

Am I seeing things, or does it look like the cut-off low over Kentucky seems to be retreating back toward Canada?

At 60 hours looks like it's ready to clip or landfall on extreme eastern Jamaica

[stormreader]

A word about the GFS ...

I have been following track model forecasts more years than I care to remember. Never can I recall any model (much less the GFS/AVN!) have such little variability in its entire ensemble suite. I don't know how many runs in a row it is now (10? 15??) where the spaghetti tracks have been clustered together in such a tight bundle that you cannot discern even one iota of track variability. Granted, once the system leaves the Northern Bahamas, the tracks becomes more diverse, but for literally the past 3 days the GFS runs have been in absolute tight formation each time up thru the Bahamas. I don't even know what this means, given what is supposedly a tricky setup.

This will be an amazing feat if it verifies.

Going to consider it blind luck for now...lol.

although tightly clustered... the entire ensemble of the GFS members as well as the rest have been shifting west. one needs only to look at this.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 6&title=14

its very clear regardless of the run to run operational gfs we see bouncing all over the model consensus continues its slow westward migration. very likely be in the western bahamas by 00z tonight and possibly over the FL peninsula 12z tomorrow.

Yes, I agree. And don't be surprised if the actual track is slightly further west. Been thinking for a couple of days now that the actual crossing of Cuba won't be on a due N trajectory but will have a W component. Thinking it arrives at a point very near Key West. From there, best bet would be N up the West Coast of Fl. But I'm not ruling out a lesser possibility of a stall and a WNW drift for a time in the GOM. But one thing at a time. A further W crossing of Cuba than anticipated, and then a N move up the Fl West Coast is what I think is most likely out of this situation.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

How do people think the GFS initialized the storm? Too weak, right?

Looks about right to me, 966mb on the full resolution.

[Ken711]

gatorcane posted this earlier.

viewtopic.php?p=2547974#p2547974

[chaser1]

At least for the moment i'm not seeing any further motion that is south of due west. Near term key here is whether the ridge strength at present is strong enough to push Matthew westward past present forecast points and to what extent. My present thought is that Matthew may very well reach 77W at or prior to reaching 15N. Should that play out, that I would not imagine that the weakness in the Gulf will play any stronger of a factor than offer an opening to move north, but wouldn't think strong enough to cause a motion east of north. Therefore should Matthew reach the above mentioned point and begin to make a more northward turn, I'd think this turn will be a bit less sharp than "due north" and begin as NW or NNW and over 12 or so hours, then northward. This would seem to imply a westward shift of track and might have the storm riding eerily close (or just east?) to 80W. Continued quicker motion might tip us all to this risk as early as mid-day tomm.

[caneseddy]

Looks like at 78 hours, it seems to be at the same position as on the previous run...maybe a smidge east

[ThetaE]

How do people think the GFS initialized the storm? Too weak, right?

Looks about right to me, 966mb on the full resolution.

It starts out right, but then immediately in 6 hours weakens Matthew around 10-ish mb. It seems a bit fishy to me, especially given current strengthening trends.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

How do people think the GFS initialized the storm? Too weak, right?

Looks about right to me, 966mb on the full resolution.

Which one would be the full resolution map?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

How do people think the GFS initialized the storm? Too weak, right?

Looks about right to me, 966mb on the full resolution.

It starts out right, but then immediately in 6 hours weakens Matthew around 10-ish mb. It seems a bit fishy to me, especially given current strengthening trends.

The HWRF has been showing that too. It appears dry air from the north near Haiti gets entrained into the circulation and weakens the system. Whether or not Matthew can remain a major hurricane through the next 24-48 hours depends on how strong it gets today, IMO.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 90...Gitmo...looks a hair east of the 06z

[SouthFLTropics]

Of note...the ULL in the GOM looks to be further SW than the 06z. May have a negative tilt once Matthew gets in the Bahamas.

[wxman57]

Absolutely zero difference in position at 96hrs between the 06Z and 12z GFS.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Despite the potential for weakening, I'm deeply concerned for Jamaica this morning. The GFS explosively deepens Matthew as it approaches Jamaica into a Cat 3-4 on Monday, and then into Cuba as a Cat 4.

[crimi481]

The name "Mitch" comes to mind. Do any models hint at leaving Matthew near Yucatan?

Not a pro

[MississippiWx]

The name "Mitch" comes to mind. Do any models hint at leaving Matthew near Yucatan?

Not a pro

At one point the Euro ensembles entertained the idea, but nothing even remotely close to that is on the table anymore.

[northjaxpro]

Despite the potential for weakening, I'm deeply concerned for Jamaica this morning. The GFS explosively deepens Matthew as it approaches Jamaica into a Cat 3-4 on Monday, and then into Cuba as a Cat 4.

Yeah, I am extremely worried about Jamaica. I am terrified for them facing down this monster cyclone . It really looks like a potentially catastrophic situation in that area. Keep everyone down there in your prayers.

[storm4u]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Hr 123 definitely closer to florida

[gatorcane]

I am seeing a very slight shift west on the 12Z GFS in the Bahamas with slightly more ridging at hour 120. Also it is slightly slower than the 06Z GFS.

[bqknight]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Hr 123 definitely closer to florida

This run is SLIGHTLY more west and south than the previous one.

[MississippiWx]

I am seeing a very slight shift west on the 12Z GFS in the Bahamas with slightly more ridging at hour 120.

Difference is probably the GFS's handling of the shortwave east of New England. It is way weaker this run and more to the east. It allows the Atlantic ridge to build west a little more.