ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Fishing]

I plotted all the 00Z EC & Canadian ensemble members, and 06Z GFS. EC is purple, GFS is green, Canadian is light blue. That's 91 total members, including the ECMWF control run. Definite eastward shift overnight in the EC & Canadian. Not many members indicate an East U.S. Coast landfall now. Good news, perhaps, but no "all-clear" yet for you folks in the Carolinas, by any means.

And wx57 by Carolinas you are talking about NC, correct?

[wxman57]

I plotted all the 00Z EC & Canadian ensemble members, and 06Z GFS. EC is purple, GFS is green, Canadian is light blue. That's 91 total members, including the ECMWF control run. Definite eastward shift overnight in the EC & Canadian. Not many members indicate an East U.S. Coast landfall now. Good news, perhaps, but no "all-clear" yet for you folks in the Carolinas, by any means.

And wx57 by Carolinas you are talking about NC, correct?

Neither is out of the woods, so to speak. Better chance of hitting NC than SC.

[gatorcane]

Though the ECMWF is out to sea, this UKMET run is still eye-opening and note this is the second consecutive run it is showing this bend to the WNW. I would like to see a couple of more runs of the ECMWF to be sure it doesn't also try to build the ridge overtop like it was trying to do yesterday in the 12Z run and basically what it has been showing off-and-on the past several days. Forward speed is key, if Matthew gets stuck down in the Caribbean longer than expected, there is more of an opportunity of this ridge building back.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Though the ECMWF is out to sea, this UKMET run is still eye-opening and note this is the second consecutive run it is showing this bend to the WNW. I would like to see a couple of more runs of the ECMWF to be sure it doesn't also try to build the ridge overtop like it was trying to do yesterday in the 12Z run and basically what it has been showing off-and-on the past several days. Forward speed is key, if Matthew gets stuck down in the Caribbean longer than expected, there is more of an opportunity of this ridge building back.

Interesting that this run brings Matt further south, almost to that peninsula in Columbia which seems to be verifying.

[p1nheadlarry]

I plotted all the 00Z EC & Canadian ensemble members, and 06Z GFS. EC is purple, GFS is green, Canadian is light blue. That's 91 total members, including the ECMWF control run. Definite eastward shift overnight in the EC & Canadian. Not many members indicate an East U.S. Coast landfall now. Good news, perhaps, but no "all-clear" yet for you folks in the Carolinas, by any means.

And wx57 by Carolinas you are talking about NC, correct?

Either way, the last model runs are a surfer's dream for the Carolinas

[Aric Dunn]

although the deep BAM shifted west again.

[GCANE]

I am sorry but I have to vent:
The models have achieved an unprecidented level on the Crapola Scale this year.

[stormlover2013]

I'm not from Florida but I'll say this be on the edge of your seats because you never know with these things.......Mother Nature can be sneaky sometimes!!

[jlauderdal]

although the deep BAM shifted west again.

nobody shoudl get sucked into thinking they are all clear..there is way too much error at 5 days...rick knabb was just on periscope and he couldnt have made it more clear

[AxaltaRacing24]

I am sorry but I have to vent:
The models have achieved an unprecidented level on the Crapola Scale this year.

The money spent on the phenomenal "upgrades" sure paid off this season .

[jlauderdal]

although the deep BAM shifted west again.

which is concerning since this is a deepening storm

[gatorcane]

00Z NASA model again with a South Florida hit (same as 00Z from Thu. night which is the second image):

[caneseddy]

although the deep BAM shifted west again.

nobody shoudl get sucked into thinking they are all clear..there is way too much error at 5 days...rick knabb was just on periscope and he couldnt have made it more clear

See tweet from John Morales (NBC Miami chief meteorologist) to reinforce your point.

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/781852915568869376

[JaxGator]

although the deep BAM shifted west again.

Isn't that one of the models the NHC uses for the track?

[Aric Dunn]

although the deep BAM shifted west again.

Isn't that one of the models the NHC uses for the track?

well they typically use a multi model consensus.

[p1nheadlarry]

I am sorry but I have to vent:
The models have achieved an unprecidented level on the Crapola Scale this year.

The money spent on the phenomenal "upgrades" sure paid off this season .

To be fair, it's better to look at all the model trends as a whole than just specific models. The spread is large, but this is a complex set up, even after it decides to make the turn.

[KWT]

UKMO track at the moment seems the best match for the SW dive we are seeing Matthew take. Does make you wonder whether the high is stronger than predicted. Happens a lot...famously Katrina did a similar unexpected dive (though this one was better forecasted overall.)

[Aric Dunn]

Thing we still have to watch for is this upper low that is supposed to form in the eastern gulf which accelerates it north without that a much more gradual turn wnw then nw easily making into the gulf would be quite likely.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I am sorry but I have to vent:
The models have achieved an unprecidented level on the Crapola Scale this year.

The money spent on the phenomenal "upgrades" sure paid off this season .

To be fair, it's better to look at all the model trends as a whole than just specific models. The spread is large, but this is a complex set up, even after it decides to make the turn.

I am honestly only talking about the credibility of them all. We used to have many reliable models and if this were 2015 and models showed a path like this I would be more confident. But after bust after bust I am not 110% sold on the path of this yet.

[tolakram]

I am honestly only talking about the credibility of them all. We used to have many reliable models and if this were 2015 and models showed a path like this I would be more confident. But after bust after bust I am not 110% sold on the path of this yet.

You have to understand how to read the models (well, that sounds a little harsh, not intended). Those busts were due to storms not developing and the track changing due to lack of development. Intensity has always been an issue and intensity can greatly effect track. Once a storm has formed I think the models will do a pretty decent job days 1-4, and the NHC uses a blend which makes their 5 day track decent. For the Florida risk we are looking at past 5 days, which is always sketchy. Once it makes the turn and we get under 5 days the solution should be fairly clear. IMO.