ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Kingarabian]

[chaser1]

Okay, everyone ready for tonight's bonus challenge question?

Just a stone throw away from the Florida coast, this Island get-a-way boasts fun, fishing, diving, and seafood delicacies! But, hold on to your hats folks and see if you can name the top 5 reasons NOT to travel to the paradise destination - Andros Island next week.

Answer #1 - GFS 0Z run - Hurricane Landfall in 126 hr.'s (or 6Z Wed)
Answer #2 - CMC 0Z run - Hurricane Landfall in 108 hr.'s (or 12Z Tue)
Answer #3 - GEM 12 run - Hurricane Landfall in 102 hr.'s (or 6Z Tue)
Answer #4 - JMA 12 run - Hurricane Landfall in 132 hr.'s (or 12Z Wed)
Answer #5 - HWRF 0Z run - Eye Wall Conditions in 108 hr.'s (or 12z Tue)

...but if you said GFDL, well TOO BAD - you lose, and are off to Jupiter, Florida for a Hurricane Landfall in 126 hours (or 06 Wed)

[SFLcane]

Hmm jumped northward that seem bogus

[AutoPenalti]

What's wrong with Euro? It just bumped north for absolutely no reason.

[SFLcane]

What's wrong with Euro? It just bumped north for absolutely no reason.

12z run did the same thing

[HurricaneFrances04]

Same thing with 12Z

[SFLcane]

Wow so far identical to 12z run through 96hrs

[adam0983]

The trends are more west with every model run. That is not good thing for Florida at all. If hurricane Matthew keeps getting stronger will it go more west. The stronger the storm the longer it will take to turn. The trend has been west right now I think Matthew is going over Nassau for sure. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

What's wrong with Euro? It just bumped north for absolutely no reason.

12z run did the same thing

by the way thats a nne movement,.

[WeatherEmperor]

Same spot as Ukmet at 96hrs believe it or not. Lets see if it turns back WNW after that like the Ukmet does


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[Bocadude85]

Wow so far identical to 12z run through 96hrs

It's southwest of the 12z...

[chaser1]

This is just a thought, but I don't know what "mechanical" or data transfer process applies, but is there any chance that tonight's added Gulfstream data might not have yet been ingested in time for the 0Z EURO run?

[HurricaneFrances04]

In this case I doubt we'll see much of a cone shift by the NHC. If anything, they may shift day 3-5 south (showing slower motion).

[cdavis6287]

Not a pro by anymeans but the Bahamas should be on High Alert!

[HurricaneFrances04]

Basically windward passage.

Lets see if the ridge builds back in after 120 hours, or it takes it OTS.

[WeatherEmperor]

Same as Ukmet through 120hrs. Watch for WNW motion




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[AutoPenalti]

Wow, interesting development, looks to hit OTS. Hmm...

EDIT: Nope there's that WNW movement Hr 144, lol.

[WeatherEmperor]

Interesting to note Gfs, Canadian, Navy and Hwrf have all slowed their speeds to come closer to the Euro speeds despite the different tracks....


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[LarryWx]

Based on hour 120, I'm guessing the 0Z Euro will recurve east of the CONUS. Let's see.

[hurricanetrack]

A year later and it's Joaquin all over again. Euro says east while most other guidance says west. Gotta love history repeating itself and keeping all these poor people up for no good reason

This is really maddening. We need to be able to rely on the global models and 5 days out is not too much to ask. How is it that in 2012 ECMWF nailed Sandy from 8 days out? That's incredible and you'd think in 4 years the models would be better. So - either the GFS scores it this year or the ECMWF still has better overall physics and once again spares the USA (virtually speaking of course).

The only thing I wonder about as being a possible caveat for all of the 00z models now is this: they were all initialized with a 75mph hurricane not a 100 mph hurricane. Does this change anything with steering? Pumping the ridge as they say? No change at all? I do wonder....