ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
HWRF is one degree SSW from same time as compared to 18Z run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Here we go!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
HWRF is about 12 hours faster than the GFS. Landfall on eastern Jamaica in 78 hours vs 90 hours.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Wow much further west...


Last edited by SFLcane on Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
0z GFDL landfall in Palm Beach County/S.Fla in 126 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016093000&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016093000&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
That would be so ugly for Fl!
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Wow, this is getting crazy! It seems like every time I look at a model it's trending West, except for the EURO of course
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
SFLcane wrote:Wow much further west...
Holy cow! Now in line with GFS.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
That isn't good, gap is closing. We are at 5 days from US landfall.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
NAVGEM bucks the west trend. East of Jamaica in 3 days. But is also slower than the last few runs.
Looks like the HWRF wants to turn N/NE after 4 days....SE of Andros Island.
Looks like the HWRF wants to turn N/NE after 4 days....SE of Andros Island.
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- AdamFirst
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
00z EURO initialized...the model run we lose sleep over 
EDIT: NHC has upgraded Matthew to a 100 MPH category 2...rapidly intensified. More discussion in the main thread.

EDIT: NHC has upgraded Matthew to a 100 MPH category 2...rapidly intensified. More discussion in the main thread.
Last edited by AdamFirst on Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
again the interesting note with the GFDL is the nnw to nw turn at the end of the run..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:again the interesting note with the GFDL is the nnw to nw turn at the end of the run..
The new Ukmet does it too.....
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:again the interesting note with the GFDL is the nnw to nw turn at the end of the run..
The new Ukmet does it too.....
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The 12Z Euro also has it between 144 and 168. Only difference is that it's over the SE Bahamas as opposed to Central Bahamas (which is a huge difference for SE Florida).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
It's hard to compare a model that runs every 12 hours when we can only see 24 hour outputs, but it looks a little SW of the 12Z through 72 hours. That said, it's a little faster than yesterday's 0Z.
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