ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Dare i say the core looks quite annular?

Annular storms have large, symmetrical eyes with warm CDO's over low shear and cool water. This is anything but annular.

Structure first, eye second. Just an observation that we are not seeing a lot of banding.

Yea, it's CDO dominant likely due to its shear pattern origins.

[pcolaman]

Tomorrow is going to be interesting for sure. New model runs, RI ,and a rapidly growing storm. West trends will still happen due to the stronger ridge that expected. Gonna be fun for sure

[Hammy]

Matthew seems to have, at least for now, ceased losing latitude as per the last recon pass. On the note of shear, which still seems present to some degree, despite the upper high being over S America is it possible the model (and in real time) parameters for intensification are for the CDO/wrapping of convection manages to establish a new one?

[Aric Dunn]

funny the recon mission said over .. but now it made a turn back.. going to make one last pass. likely because its deepening pretty quick now. good data

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

because this systems track right now could be anywhere between the gulf and ec, it makes me remember how the models blew up hermine so much and had it impacting near the LA/MS area and had katrina looking like a light summer rain, if this were to be the sudden track with matthew, he is the storm that would make katrina look like a weak

[sponger]

funny the recon mission said over .. but now it made a turn back.. going to make one last pass. likely because its deepening pretty quick now. good data

Go get him! We want data!

[tolakram]

ir loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-68&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/TTerryWFTV/status/781681374226886656

[sponger]

ir loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-68&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Wow! Looking quite healthy right now.

[Aric Dunn]

 https://twitter.com/TTerryWFTV/status/781681374226886656

i was looking at the data.. not surprised it looks similar to earlier gfs and euro runs from 4 or 5 days ago where they were both in the eastern gulf.

[MaineWeatherNut]

974.7 this pass...

045730 1405N 06905W 6970 02944 9747 +158 +094 242006 011 012 001 00

[NotoSans]

Wow extrapolated pressure down to 975 mb, which means a 5 mb drop in less than an hour.

[sponger]

Wow extrapolated pressure down to 975 mb, which means a 5 mb drop in half an hour.

975? Four mb an hour! Should be leveling off any time......

[MaineWeatherNut]

Wow extrapolated pressure down to 975 mb, which means a 5 mb drop in half an hour.

975? Four mb an hour! Should be leveling off any time......

Why would it level off? There isn't going to be any more negative factors then there already is until it makes landfall.

[sponger]

Wow extrapolated pressure down to 975 mb, which means a 5 mb drop in half an hour.

975? Four mb an hour! Should be leveling off any time......

Why would it level off? There isn't going to be any more negative factors then there already is until it makes landfall.

Said with a bit of sarcasm, and hope for Jamaica!

[TimeZone]

5 MB drop in an hour? what? That can't be accurate.

[tatertawt24]

Is there still lightning showing up around the eyewall?

[MaineWeatherNut]

99kt...

050600 1428N 06909W 6973 03027 9938 +102 +102 099091 099 073 048 03

[NotoSans]

Flight-level winds of 99 kt and SFMR winds of 83 kt would yield an initial intensity of at least 85 kt.

[AutoPenalti]

Well, that's not good...