ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[MississippiWx]

0z CMC a good bit slower through 78 hours...

[psyclone]

That GFS run is quite a bit of a west shift. the real tell will be if the NHC bites on some iteration of the solution and shifts west. So far the track hasn't varied much and any alteration would likely be gradual over multiple forecast cycles. Something else to keep in mind...if the storm does indeed settle on a more westward track it could avoid the most mountainous area of Cuba. A slight leftward deviation in the GFS depiction would do it but of course that is well west of the current official NHC track..

[HurricaneFrances04]

FWIW, CMC takes Matthew further south before turning toward the NW. Still looks on track for a western Jamaica hit (same as 12Z)

[floridadaze8181]

Going to be some knarly surf here in Palm Beach County. It's been a while since we've seen 15 foot plus waves. Beaches are struggling here with erosion in spots.

[AutoPenalti]

This actually has become a serious situation. Just a few hundred miles east from SFL. And it has trended west for the past few runs, including new data.

[tolakram]

0Z GFS run

[MWatkins]

MW great to see you here been a long time, what is your take on all this.

Not happy to see the trend go back west and slow down some. From a purely selfish south Florida new homeowner perspective, I am really not happy with having to possibly prepare for a hurricane over the weekend. This was to be my first true weekend off since March.

On the other hand, all but 3 of my windows have accordion shutters - so at least I have that going for me.

MW

[HurricaneFrances04]

0Z CMC, right around the island:

[sponger]

CMC brings it awfully close to OBX!
Oops, GFS!

[Aric Dunn]

MW great to see you here been a long time, what is your take on all this.

Not happy to see the trend go back west and slow down some. From a purely selfish south Florida new homeowner perspective, I am really not happy with having to possibly prepare for a hurricane over the weekend. This was to be my first true weekend off since March.

On the other hand, all but 3 of my windows have accordion shutters - so at least I have that going for me.

MW

MR. Mike Watkins ! very long time buddy.

[SFLcane]

Westward trend continues with GFS...

[sponger]

That is way to close to SFL! Good thing we have days for changes, hopefully not further west!

[emeraldislenc]

Yes very close to NC

[AdamFirst]

CMC with a similar solution to the GFS post-Cuba...landfall at/near Andros Island heading due north (around 108 hours)

[MWatkins]

Hello Aric!

Indeed. It's been 11 years since we've watched a system this closely.

GFS trend is not good - will be interesting to see what the dynamic guidance does against the GFS pressure background...

Won't be getting much sleep for the next few days, that's for sure. Just like the old days.

MW

MW great to see you here been a long time, what is your take on all this.

Not happy to see the trend go back west and slow down some. From a purely selfish south Florida new homeowner perspective, I am really not happy with having to possibly prepare for a hurricane over the weekend. This was to be my first true weekend off since March.

On the other hand, all but 3 of my windows have accordion shutters - so at least I have that going for me.

MW

MR. Mike Watkins ! very long time buddy.

[toad strangler]

0z GFS a close call for FL

[sponger]

Hello Aric!

Indeed. It's been 11 years since we've watched a system this closely.

GFS trend is not good - will be interesting to see what the dynamic guidance does against the GFS pressure background...

Won't be getting much sleep for the next few days, that's for sure. Just like the old days.

MW

Not happy to see the trend go back west and slow down some. From a purely selfish south Florida new homeowner perspective, I am really not happy with having to possibly prepare for a hurricane over the weekend. This was to be my first true weekend off since March.

On the other hand, all but 3 of my windows have accordion shutters - so at least I have that going for me.

MW

MR. Mike Watkins ! very long time buddy.

Good to have you back!

[Aric Dunn]

Hello Aric!

Indeed. It's been 11 years since we've watched a system this closely.

GFS trend is not good - will be interesting to see what the dynamic guidance does against the GFS pressure background...

Won't be getting much sleep for the next few days, that's for sure. Just like the old days.

MW

Not happy to see the trend go back west and slow down some. From a purely selfish south Florida new homeowner perspective, I am really not happy with having to possibly prepare for a hurricane over the weekend. This was to be my first true weekend off since March.

On the other hand, all but 3 of my windows have accordion shutters - so at least I have that going for me.

MW

MR. Mike Watkins ! very long time buddy.

The old days were great.

im also waiting for the 06 and 12z for the full data assimilation from the gulfstream. already pinpointed a stronger ridge so may take a couple runs to work through since the system is not listening to the models

[Bocadude85]

GFS simulated IR at 132 hours as the eye is moving or Andros/Nassau Bahamas

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=ir&runtime=2016093000&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=0

[chaser1]

GFS simulated IR at 132 hours as the eye is moving or Andros/Nassau Bahamas

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=ir&runtime=2016093000&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=0

that looks like a brief period where coastal Miami, Broward, Palm Beach, Martin and upper keys might be getting buffeted with some heavy squalls with T.S. force gusts or possibly sustained for a couple hours.