ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[jlauderdal]

As long as jlauderdale is comfortable then so am I. He has a secret weapon that keeps storms away from South Florida!!!

Hope he cranks up the generator soon! Then go to Chucks and wait because Matthew bears watching.

models are jumpy for sure, not sure the drops will really clear anything up beyond cuba...this is a model thread so need to stay on that..discussion thread for chucks, lol

drops is dropsondes from the g4 mission

[toad strangler]

I am expecting a west track shift of 50 miles or so at 11:00 to reflect model shifts obviously sensing a weaker trough and stronger riding. Matthew is a big boy so won't take much more to put TS force winds into SFL. The GFDL is obviously a huge concern not only for track but intensity as it misses the largest mountains of Cuba. Can't wait to see tomorrow model runs.

Luckily the GFDL is a pretty bad model, so the chances of it verifying are pretty slim. Unless the models continue their westward shifts I think Matthew will pass 150-200 miles east of Florida. Far enough to east to not have any watches or warnings up for the coastline (we have seen many times before a hurricane warning in the northwestern Bahamas and not a watch or anything for S.Fla)

I wonder from time to time about when some of these out dated models get dumped. Not picking on the GFDL but you know there are plenty o' model in the spaghetti plots that are of Atari age or worse.

[sponger]

Quite true! Remember the Southern deflection for Katrina through SFL? Seems like its last good call! If the next GFS gets on board, especially with the NOAA data, SFL could be at greater risk, and certainly obx.

[otowntiger]

It is going to be interesting if the NHC shifts a little west at 11. What do most people think?

It will most likely remain the same.

Agreed. It takes several definitive runs of significant shifts before they respond. What we have seen are not shifts or a trend but minor tweaks within the margin of error if you will. Their track will not likely budge at all. The models, especially the GFS have been so incredibly consistent with this track of this system that I would bet good money at this point that it verifies of is even a little west of where the storm actually goes.

[TheStormExpert]

I think this going to be a HUGE win for the GFS tonight!

[ConvergenceZone]

All I've got to say is, if the next run of the GFS moves West again to hitting the East Coast, then Game On!

[TheStormExpert]

All I've got to say is, if the next run of the GFS moves West again to hitting the East Coast, then Game On!

It shouldn't, all the other models seem to be zoning in on the GFS solution.

[Bocadude85]

I think this going to be a HUGE win for the GFS tonight!

I actually think the GFS will shift east with the new data.

[TheStormExpert]

I think this going to be a HUGE win for the GFS tonight!

I actually think the GFS will shift east with the new data.

Most likely.

[Alyono]

one half of the dropsondes went into the 18Z MU

[Ken711]

I think this going to be a HUGE win for the GFS tonight!

I actually think the GFS will shift east with the new data.

What's your reasoning on this?

[JPmia]

one half of the dropsondes went into the 18Z MU

Are you suggesting that the recent GFS trend at 18z and then definitely 00z will reflect the G-IV dropsonde data?

[ConvergenceZone]

I think this going to be a HUGE win for the GFS tonight!

I actually think the GFS will shift east with the new data.

Well it better, because it gets extremely close to the East Coast. It can't move too much more to the West without slamming into the East Coast

[Nederlander]

Quite true! Remember the Southern deflection for Katrina through SFL? Seems like its last good call! If the next GFS gets on board, especially with the NOAA data, SFL could be at greater risk, and certainly obx.

If I remember correctly GFDL outperformed all other models with Ike..

[sponger]

NHC is not buying west yet! Come on GFS. Put our minds at ease!

[Alyono]

one half of the dropsondes went into the 18Z MU

Are you suggesting that the recent GFS trend at 18z and then definitely 00z will reflect the G-IV dropsonde data?

18Z had some of the drops, the 0Z has the remaining ones. All sondes released before 21Z are included in the 18Z run

[Bocadude85]

I think this going to be a HUGE win for the GFS tonight!

I actually think the GFS will shift east with the new data.

What's your reasoning on this?

It's not really scientific but I have noticed that a lot of times when the NAM shifts so does the GFS, the 0Z NAM shifted significantly NE.

[toad strangler]

11 PM

As expected by me for sure, no shift to the W.

[TimeZone]

I believe the GFS will stick to it's guns. I think we may see a slight tick E if anything.

[CourierPR]

I believe the GFS will stick to it's guns. I think we may see a slight tick E if anything.

A slight tick east based on what?