ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[GTStorm]

Curious to know...with most of the discussion being about the models trending west, what features seem to be the key players right now for this storm? Are we watching lows in the Gulf? Expecting a digging trough? High pressure ridge developing? All of the above? Thanks in advance to a pro who might know...

please watch this video..it gives you everything you need to know about the setup

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=optFvZaFbaE

I wish they had a "really like this" flag...thanks a million, that was exactly what I was looking for. Learned something....

[jason1912]

If you are saying models will get closer and closer to SFL, provide some reasoning because it sounds like wishful thinking

[stormlover2013]

Not wishful thinking when ur dealing with a trough and ridge....also it's 6 days away a lot can change

[stormreader]

HWRF a little faster then 12z but a full degree west

93 Hours crossing Cuba at 77 west!!!

I'll bet it's on to something. And I wouldn't discount that NASA model either which I think is west of that. Don't be shocked by a Cuba crossing of around 80 West with a westerly component (not due north) and arrival somewhere near Key West. I really don't think we're going to see any due N movement while still in the Carribean. Going to have some west component.

[meriland23]

this is so close that, as it is there is only may be a 20% chance of US landfall...but if the models shift anymore west, even 1 degree, that 20% will change dramatically to like 50 or 60%

[tolakram]

http://i65.tinypic.com/9rr3gw.jpg
00z...
http://i64.tinypic.com/adp9w9.jpg
00z... Nearly all guidance on W side of NHC track...

To be fair, two of the more reliable models that hold more weight, the Euro and UKMET, are east.

Why are you saying this?

Last 3 euro runs.







Latest UKMET run

[jlauderdal]

Curious to know...with most of the discussion being about the models trending west, what features seem to be the key players right now for this storm? Are we watching lows in the Gulf? Expecting a digging trough? High pressure ridge developing? All of the above? Thanks in advance to a pro who might know...

please watch this video..it gives you everything you need to know about the setup

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=optFvZaFbaE

I wish they had a "really like this" flag...thanks a million, that was exactly what I was looking for. Learned something....

bookmark that youtube page and these sites for more videos...you will be well informed

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... s/vbraynob

[wxmann_91]

http://i65.tinypic.com/9rr3gw.jpg
00z...
http://i64.tinypic.com/adp9w9.jpg
00z... Nearly all guidance on W side of NHC track...

To be fair, two of the more reliable models that hold more weight, the Euro and UKMET, are east.

Why are you saying this?

Last 3 euro runs.

I was just addressing why the NHC seemed to be on the right side of guidance. NHC doesn't have a track after 5 days. Through 5 days, UKMET and Euro are right.

[StarmanHDB]

all y'all need to focus on the fact models are trending west more and not the fact it's currently fishing in the models.

You've referred to Hurricane Matthew as a "fish" more than a few times in this thread. I don't know which models you are looking at, but nearly every model I've seen has Matthew affecting Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas. While I hope that Matthew has zero land interaction, the fact is that Matthew will most likely have various landfalls which will certainly not render it a "fish" storm. That stated, y'all need to focus on the fact that there are many other areas outside of the CONUS which will be affected by this storm. Please stop the US bias and remember our neighbors in the Caribbean.

Thanks!

[Steve]

Fairly decent consensus on the 00z early cycle guidance, and all west of 75. It's a close call. Intensity models are mid-grade. I don't trust them, but they're showing moderate/Cat 2 type system. You'd think after Cuba (or wherever), it can get stronger than that.

[AutoPenalti]

It's asinine to believe that people still think it's going to avoid Florida all together, based on current models.

[centuryv58]

To be fair, two of the more reliable models that hold more weight, the Euro and UKMET, are east.

Why are you saying this?

Last 3 euro runs.

I was just addressing why the NHC seemed to be on the right side of guidance. NHC doesn't have a track after 5 days. Through 5 days, UKMET and Euro are right.

The trend is west. The NHC will show that at some point if the trend continues.

[jlauderdal]

It's asinine to believe that people still think it's going to avoid Florida all together, based on current models.

cmon, gfs an euro are still offshore....just because we are trending west doesnt mean florida is getting hit, plenty of time for models and real weather to avoid florida

[centuryv58]

It's asinine to believe that people still think it's going to avoid Florida all together, based on current models.

cmon, gfs an euro are still offshore....just because we are trending west doesnt mean florida is getting hit, plenty of time for models and real weather to avoid florida

I think SE FL (that's you and me) are in for TS winds at a minimum.

[jlauderdal]

Fairly decent consensus on the 00z early cycle guidance, and all west of 75. It's a close call. Intensity models are mid-grade. I don't trust them, but they're showing moderate/Cat 2 type system. You'd think after Cuba (or wherever), it can get stronger than that.

the potential is there but no way can we know about shear and land interaction effects this far out as it heads out of the carib

[Alyono]

Fairly decent consensus on the 00z early cycle guidance, and all west of 75. It's a close call. Intensity models are mid-grade. I don't trust them, but they're showing moderate/Cat 2 type system. You'd think after Cuba (or wherever), it can get stronger than that.

Notice what are not plotted on those intensity models. The global models. When even models like the 2.5 degree version of the JMA and the NAVGEM are showing a cat 2/3, you know this is going to be an absolute monster

[jlauderdal]

It's asinine to believe that people still think it's going to avoid Florida all together, based on current models.

cmon, gfs an euro are still offshore....just because we are trending west doesnt mean florida is getting hit, plenty of time for models and real weather to avoid florida

I think SE FL (that's you and me) are in for TS winds at a minimum.

fair enough, you are a braver than me making a call like that this far out in this setup

[SouthFLTropics]

It's asinine to believe that people still think it's going to avoid Florida all together, based on current models.

cmon, gfs an euro are still offshore....just because we are trending west doesnt mean florida is getting hit, plenty of time for models and real weather to avoid florida

As long as jlauderdale is comfortable then so am I. He has a secret weapon that keeps storms away from South Florida!!!

[meriland23]

[Tweet][/Tweet]

all y'all need to focus on the fact models are trending west more and not the fact it's currently fishing in the models.

You've referred to Hurricane Matthew as a "fish" more than a few times in this thread. I don't know which models you are looking at, but nearly every model I've seen has Matthew affecting Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas. While I hope that Matthew has zero land interaction, the fact is that Matthew will most likely have various landfalls which will certainly not render it a "fish" storm. That stated, y'all need to focus on the fact that there are many other areas outside of the CONUS which will be affected by this storm. Please stop the US bias and remember our neighbors in the Caribbean.

Thanks!

I'm sorry, I didn't mean to make it sound neglectful. When I say fish, as others have, I only meant it would curve out to sea up the EC. It is a classic EC feature when it comes to Hurricanes. I didn't mean for it to sound inconsiderate. I'm sorry.

[Bocadude85]

It's asinine to believe that people still think it's going to avoid Florida all together, based on current models.

cmon, gfs an euro are still offshore....just because we are trending west doesnt mean florida is getting hit, plenty of time for models and real weather to avoid florida

I think SE FL (that's you and me) are in for TS winds at a minimum.

I really doubt it. The models would need to be showing this much closer to Florida for us to get TS conditions. We will be on the "weak" side of the storm.