ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[CalmBeforeStorm]

HWRF a little faster then 12z but a full degree west

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF a little faster then 12z but a full degree west

93 Hours crossing Cuba at 77 west!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm actually glad it looks like it will miss the US, as a big storm would wreck what's left of the economy and it would have a trickle down effect to all of us. I still give it about a 20% chance though of hitting the East Coast.

[JPmia]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_14.gif

GFDL much further west.

[SouthDadeFish]

Judging by where the G-V has flown so far, there should be a substantial amount of drops ingested into the 00Z guidance.

[gatorcane]

Quite a bit west of 12Z. That is Andros Island there.

[Alyono]

The HWRF is about .4 degrees too far west in its 6 hour position

Not ready to give this much weight

[SouthFLTropics]

Quite a bit west of 12Z. That is Andros Island there.

[i mg]https://s13.postimg.org/kn27nutd3/hwrf_mslp_wind_14_L_35.png[/img]

Yep, Andros is about to be in play...on that angle of attack it won't take much more of a nudge left to bring cyclone conditions to coastal South Florida. Definitely to close to call!!!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Every single model that I'm aware of has trended west today up to latitude 27 or so today.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm actually glad it looks like it will miss the US, as a big storm would wreck what's left of the economy and it would have a trickle down effect to all of us. I still give it about a 20% chance though of hitting the East Coast.

??? How exactly is it avoiding the US if everything I read so far is trending west.

[SunnyThoughts]

Seems as though Jamaica, cuba and the bahamas are in the path as per the HWRF...hopefully these west trends stop soon.

[La Sirena]

Quite a bit west of 12Z. That is Andros Island there.

[i mg]https://s13.postimg.org/kn27nutd3/hwrf_mslp_wind_14_L_35.png[/img]

Yep, Andros is about to be in play...on that angle of attack it won't take much more of a nudge left to bring cyclone conditions to coastal South Florida. Definitely to close to call!!!

The west trend has been an eye opener for sure! Can't wait to see the next set of models.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The HWRF is about .4 degrees too far west in its 6 hour position

Not ready to give this much weight

HWRF has been steadily moving west for the last 5 runs. Couple that with most other models nudging west and I think we have a trend.

[Alyono]

As I said before, compare the recon vortex message with the model positions as of 0Z. The models have been too fast to the west today

[jason1912]

As I said before, compare the recon vortex message with the model positions as of 0Z. The models have been too fast to the west today

Agree

[gatorcane]

GFDL approaching the FL Keys

[Aric Dunn]

As I said before, compare the recon vortex message with the model positions as of 0Z. The models have been too fast to the west today

its been nearly 4 hours faster than this mornings advisory. ..

[CalmBeforeStorm]

As I said before, compare the recon vortex message with the model positions as of 0Z. The models have been too fast to the west today

Was the Euro like 150 miles too fast to the west in the beginning of its run?

[Alyono]

As I said before, compare the recon vortex message with the model positions as of 0Z. The models have been too fast to the west today

Was the Euro like 150 miles too fast to the west in the beginning of its run?

The 12Z EC today? I'd have to check

[SFLcane]

So what's exactly we saying here through today's models out?