ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[RL3AO]

What is the purpose of the xtrap model....always sraight line

It's not a model. Its an extrapolation of the current movement and speed.

[caneseddy]

Do you think they may be a west shift at 5?

Looks like they did not shift that much; if anything, a slight shift east. Probably waiting for the G-IV data to come in.

[gatorcane]

12Z NASA model 120 hours:

[robbielyn]

I know it wont linger long but it will be going over high mountain terrain if nhc verifies couldnt weaken it some.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781599180540223492

[MetroMike]

My local TV Met. at 5pm says models are shifting East. That is not what I expected the message to be. Something else going on there?

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't blame the NHC for not changing the forecasted path. They want to wait and see if the models trend West again. If they trend West again, then it's highly likely they will shift the track West.

[Hurrilurker]

My local TV Met. at 5pm says models are shifting East. That is not what I expected the message to be. Something else going on there?

Maybe the recently-ingested plane data indicates the west side of the ridge to the north is eroding faster than expected? But yes, that is a bit surprising based on the recent trends.

[jlauderdal]

My local TV Met. at 5pm says models are shifting East. That is not what I expected the message to be. Something else going on there?

who is your local tv met and which model did he say is shifting east?

[cycloneye]

The 00z runs will be very interesting.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/781601197639819264

[meriland23]

My local TV Met. at 5pm says models are shifting East. That is not what I expected the message to be. Something else going on there?

maybe your local Met is dyslexic. .

[jlauderdal]

12Z NASA model 120 hours:

i will be in titusville tomorrow and saturday, will go over to the cape and ask them for a track, ha

lots of models out there throwing off differing solutions..one of them must be on to something even if by accident

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet on the models:

For next week, there is quite a bit of uncertainty as models are
having somewhat of a hard time with now hurricane Matthew. The
official track has the storm continuing to move to the west until
sometime Saturday, then turning to the north. There is still a
wide margin of uncertainty with the track and timing after that.
The GFS is more bullish with the system, bringing the storm
quickly to the north, across the Bahamas, and out of the area by
Thursday morning. The ECMWF has a similar track, but holds the
storm back, until the later half of the week. The ensembles also
have varying tracks and timing solutions.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

[Mouton]

Yes they said they were expecting to make a better go at it when the recon info comes in. (The 11PM should incorporate that info) RI may take place after the interaction with Cuba but if it is to the east side, there should have been some unscrambling of the storm IMO. Of course that entails the current projected path is correct. They have been correct for the past few days on the path but frankly the near term was not in question. Tomorrow PM will tell the tail. There is some dry air coming down over east of mississippi in CONUS behind what looks like a fairly slow moving front. If that front stays across florida with an axis east of NC the SE should be OK assuming Matt makes the projected 90 degree. IMO a straight west projection is not in the cards so if it makes something less than 90 degrees, it should run along or ahead of that front which could take it over C or S Fla, perhaps a little south of the Charlie storm. Unfortunately this storm is not compact as was Charlie and the wind fields will be much larger. I think with the dry air after 3-4 days, the intensity will keep it lower than a 4 or 5. Still a 3 would be nothing to trifle with.

Be advised this is just the ramblings of an amateur and anyone seeking accurate info should be guided by the NHC and your local weather service.

[jdjaguar]

The 00z runs will be very interesting.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/781601197639819264

iwhen are they expected? 8:00 est?

thanks in advance

[meriland23]

IMO, I could see this being much faster and thus, more western than models currently argue. I also think that the speed of this storm can make or break its intensity down the road. This is just my opinion though

[ConvergenceZone]

My local TV Met. at 5pm says models are shifting East. That is not what I expected the message to be. Something else going on there?

I wouldn't pay attention to local TV Mets. Just pay attention to what the NHC Mets say. And this board has some great Mets too.

[MetroMike]

My local TV Met. at 5pm says models are shifting East. That is not what I expected the message to be. Something else going on there?

who is your local tv met and which model did he say is shifting east?

That would be Denis Phillips from WFTS,my favorite local met but sometimes......

[cycloneye]

The 00z runs will be very interesting.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/781601197639819264

iwhen are they expected? 8:00 est?

thanks in advance

00z is 8 PM but the runs begin with GFS at 11:30 PM and ECMWF at 2 AM. Those are the two principal models.

[tolakram]

GFS 18Z running