ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Slughitter3]

So I'm very new at this but just want to ask. The GFS 12z appears to initiate the storm at 1004mb, if I'm reading it correctly, how much of a difference does that make since Matt is already down to 995? Thanks

Howdy and welcome. the GFS init was at 996mb, you need to look at the 10 meter winds + surface pressure to see the full res version.

12Z GFS

http://i.imgur.com/HiwsdUD.gif

That makes more sense, thank you! Looks like a very interesting 10 days ahead.

[Evil Jeremy]

I can't wait for tonight's 00z runs, with the G-IV data. Sort of makes this afternoon's suites a bit lame-duck to me, but still interesting to watch the trend move back west for now.

[chaser1]

Funny how just the other day EURO was the westward trend, and GFS was eastern. Now it is totally flipped.

You're right with regard to each flipping east/west positions. All in all though, both the GFS and the EURO have been honed in on nearly the same premise of a sharp poleward turn occurring between 70-74W resulting in a landfall that ranged from the D.R. to E. Cuba. Primary difference of time frame aside, both models have pretty consistently asserted a Bahamas threat but not a likely CONUS threat with possible exception to the Outer Banks. Seems to me that recent past and current modal differences are primarily separated by a couple of dynamic nuances and perhaps timing but certainly not as if either GFS or EURO has been wildly swinging toward Yucatan or Puerto Rico.

[vacanechaser]

whats up gang. first time here all year. just have had so much happening. you have to give the GFS consistency here. we've been in the cross hairs several times here in southeast va with this thing. hazel comes to mind.. and these october hurricanes can be meaner than most it seems at times. gonna be a headache week for sure..

[La Sirena]

euro has been a couple steps behind the gfs for a few days, lets see where we are in 24 hours and if they get in sync...we are still far out in time as far as any usa strike

Earlier on the Euro had it trending west farther and much slower. So, is the GFS trying to come back toward the original Euro trends?

its one run of the gfs..we have to see more before declaring anything...the general idea is the same just closer to the usa which is concerning...we are still looking way down the road

I agree....it's one run and folks are itching to nail this down. I don't anticipate this being nailed down for awhile. Just thought it was interesting as I felt the Euro had this trend going for a while before it jumped over closer to the GFS easterly trend.

[centuryv58]

I can't wait for tonight's 00z runs, with the G-IV data. Sort of makes this afternoon's suites a bit lame-duck to me, but still interesting to watch the trend move back west for now.

You are right, of course. Otherwise we just have strong opinions flying around rather than good data.

[meriland23]

GEFS & CMC seem on the same page, which is essentially what Euro does, only with a stronger curve out to sea near Cape H.

[Hurricaneman]

The models will have upper and mid level data imputed for the 18zGFS and this will most likely be initialized as a hurricane too so we may have a better 96hr forecast than before

[blp]

Major shift west on the CMC at 96hr, gets to 80W. The 12z run heads much further west before making the north turn. I am seeing a continued trend toward the west today. Would not be surprised to see the Euro shift further west as well.

[alienstorm]

NOAA’s G-IV is ready to fly a synoptic surveillance mission around Tropical Storm Matthew takes off @ 1:30 PM

[Hurricaneman]

The models will have upper and mid level data imputed for the 18zGFS and this will most likely be initialized as a hurricane too so we may have a better 96hr forecast than before

I made a mistake, we may have very little data for the 18zGFS but the 0Z should have all the data

[meriland23]

HWRF model is much faster than last runs


12z for 18z oct 2



06z for 18z oct 2

[CalmBeforeStorm]

12z HWRF SW of the 6z at 84 hrs and trending that way the last 4 runs.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Actually it's a little slower and a little west.

[Bocadude85]

12Z GFDL seems to have come more inline with other models, now has a hurricane in the western Bahamas about 75 miles offshore SE Fla.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=200

[ronyan]

12Z GFDL seems to have come more inline with other models, now has a hurricane in the western Bahamas about 75 miles offshore SE Fla.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=200

Big time hit west of Kingston on that run.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Agree that it just one run. May,,,May be better solution after 18z when the upper air data is incorporated. I really think the upstream model synoptic on Sunday will be at a point we can look at actual conditions to see how it will shape up. The models have been consistent on the turn timing and location, but the as yet unknown pattern of trof-ridge-trof etc. wont be pinned down till Sunday or later.

[blp]

What is the UKMET doing? It is usually a good precursor to any shifts in the Euro.

[TheStormExpert]

What is the UKMET doing? It is usually a good precursor to any shifts in the Euro.

It too has shifted west some.

[xironman]

12z GFS landfall OBX... @30-50 W of 06z...

The GFS kept the big upper level low over the midwest that it sniffed out at 6z, hence the left turn...