ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ronjon]

NASA model with landfall in South Florida

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi?region=tropatl&dtg=2016092900&prod=6precs&model=fp&level=sfc&tau=000&&region_old=&dtg_old=2016092900&prod_old=6precs&model_old=fp&level_old=sfc&tau_old=000&&loop=0

Ok, I just watched the animated loop for this run. Not sure how good this model is, but if that were to come to fruition (it almost certainly shouldn't) this would be a biblical rain event for FL

Here's a nice write up on the accuracy of the NASA model - apparently did quite well on track and intensity with Sandy.

https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/atmosphericassim/tracking_hurricanes/

[sma10]

My thoughts on this (for whatever its worth) is that it has been fairly remarkable how consistent some modeling has been over the past couple of days. Specifically, the GFS, HWRF and the odious CMC and NAVGEM have all basically told their own story in exactly the same way (with the usual small wobblies thrown in). We were told how complex this setup is, but yet these 4 models all show a similar story at similar speeds with minor variants.

BUT...

I think we need to wait until the weekend to see just how this turn starts to actually materialize before we decide how correct these options really are. We have all been burned by "model consensus" before (even if we act like we don't remember ). And the deep Caribbean is notorious for odd behavior of tracks over the years, especially anticipated Northerly turns.

I'm not saying the models are all wet - maybe they have nailed this one. We'll see.

[gatorcane]

CMC ensemble consensus very near Southern Florida:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

That is a charleyesque curve and if it goes 100 or 150 miles more west watch out Fort Myers/Naples/Tampa

[ronjon]

I think the threat to FL has certainly diminished with the shift eastward of the ECM ensembles. We basically have three models that are bucking that trend: JMA, NASA, and perhaps the GFDL. Most of the other guidance has been fairly persistent with a north turn thru the Bahamas. I did notice that the 06s GFS shifted west from its 00z run - but it could just as easily wiper back east at 12z. I still think there is some uncertainty still with the ultimate strength and orientation of the west atlantic mid-level ridge after 5 days and the strength of the cyclone itself (as this morning looks to be decoupled).

[gatorcane]

NASA model with landfall in South Florida

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi?region=tropatl&dtg=2016092900&prod=6precs&model=fp&level=sfc&tau=000&&region_old=&dtg_old=2016092900&prod_old=6precs&model_old=fp&level_old=sfc&tau_old=000&&loop=0

Ok, I just watched the animated loop for this run. Not sure how good this model is, but if that were to come to fruition (it almost certainly shouldn't) this would be a biblical rain event for FL

Here's a nice write up on the accuracy of the NASA model - apparently did quite well on track and intensity with Sandy.

https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/atmosphericassim/tracking_hurricanes/

Sorry couldn't post the image but here it is over South Florida in a week heading NNW. Can't tell how strong but looks quite intense:

[chris_fit]

Did any of the models show the shear/decoupling of the core that's occurring right now? Wouldn't a weaker core move more west with the easterlies?

[jlauderdal]

Did any of the models show the shear/decoupling of the core that's occurring right now? Wouldn't a weaker core move more west with the easterlies?

the gfs had a strengthening system in the carib...the euro a few days kep tit weak and westbound but the euro caved too the gfs..back to 24 hour increments..anything beyond is entertainment..just look at sat, recon, radar and draw your own forecast until this thing settles down..it could actually open up to a wave

[tolakram]

Did any of the models show the shear/decoupling of the core that's occurring right now? Wouldn't a weaker core move more west with the easterlies?

I would say the GFS IR simulation shows shear and what looks like it may be a center relocation down the road prior to real strengthening as it starts to move north.

[chaser1]

"Building Ridges and other Fun Ways to Pull Tropical Cyclones Poleward" - Found at bookstore everywhere lol

"Poleward Tropical Cyclones for Dummies" lol

That works too . Let's plan our book signings next time you're down in Fla. lol

[GCANE]

06Z GFS coming in with a pretty big tilt as it interacts with the trough just before it makes the sharp-right turn.

[OntarioEggplant]

I think the threat to FL has certainly diminished with the shift eastward of the ECM ensembles. We basically have three models that are bucking that trend: JMA, NASA, and perhaps the GFDL. Most of the other guidance has been fairly persistent with a north turn thru the Bahamas. I did notice that the 06s GFS shifted west from its 00z run - but it could just as easily wiper back east at 12z. I still think there is some uncertainty still with the ultimate strength and orientation of the west atlantic mid-level ridge after 5 days and the strength of the cyclone itself (as this morning looks to be decoupled).

The Euro ensembles did the same thing at 00Z yesterday only to flip back again at 12Z

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781494029527777281




Late models tonight will assimilate G-IV dropsondes, which will hopefully give us a clearer picture of #Matthew's future north of Caribbean.

[Ken711]

NASA model with landfall in South Florida

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi?region=tropatl&dtg=2016092900&prod=6precs&model=fp&level=sfc&tau=000&&region_old=&dtg_old=2016092900&prod_old=6precs&model_old=fp&level_old=sfc&tau_old=000&&loop=0

Ok, I just watched the animated loop for this run. Not sure how good this model is, but if that were to come to fruition (it almost certainly shouldn't) this would be a biblical rain event for FL

Here's a nice write up on the accuracy of the NASA model - apparently did quite well on track and intensity with Sandy.

https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/atmosphericassim/tracking_hurricanes/

I didn't realize how well this model did with Sandy, very impressive.

[chaser1]

NASA model with landfall in South Florida

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi?region=tropatl&dtg=2016092900&prod=6precs&model=fp&level=sfc&tau=000&&region_old=&dtg_old=2016092900&prod_old=6precs&model_old=fp&level_old=sfc&tau_old=000&&loop=0

Ok, I just watched the animated loop for this run. Not sure how good this model is, but if that were to come to fruition (it almost certainly shouldn't) this would be a biblical rain event for FL

Here's a nice write up on the accuracy of the NASA model - apparently did quite well on track and intensity with Sandy.

https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/atmosphericassim/tracking_hurricanes/

I wish I knew a bit more about the NASA model to judge if worth referencing. I read the write up, but what about forecast accuracy for this year prior to now? I'm just saying because any model could theoretically highlight any one or two storms to suggest model accuracy. Anyone here know how the NASA model had performed thus far this year?

[Ken711]

Ok, I just watched the animated loop for this run. Not sure how good this model is, but if that were to come to fruition (it almost certainly shouldn't) this would be a biblical rain event for FL

Here's a nice write up on the accuracy of the NASA model - apparently did quite well on track and intensity with Sandy.

https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/atmosphericassim/tracking_hurricanes/

I wish I knew a bit more about the NASA model to judge if worth referencing. I read the write up, but what about forecast accuracy for this year prior to now? I'm just saying because any model could theoretically highlight any one or two storms to suggest model accuracy. Anyone here know how the NASA model had performed thus far this year?

Good point.

[chaser1]

Anyone have any idea how the FSU Super Ensemble is handling Matthew?

[Blown Away]

Helpful when looking at models... 06z GFS has Matt at 984 mb tonight and that is bordering on a Cat 2...

[SFLcane]

if models latch on to weaker TC solution the next few model cycles (its unclear if Matthew will recover or continue to maintain intensity in short term) there might be some westward adjustment... just a thought.

[Alyono]

weaker does NOT mean west in this case. This is a myth that keeps getting repeated here storm after storm. Take a look at the shallow BAM. It is one of the farthest EAST models.

The deep BAM is actually the farthest west. This may be a strong = west