ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Ranks up there for one of the biggest naked swirls I have seen.

Chances getting better for this bad boy to slip under the trough.

The snap back could be one for the record books if it occurs.

[HurrMark]

Slightly off topic. The Washington Post printed a story yesterday that compared Matthew to Hazel because of it's forecast path. This has done nothing but to heighten fear and anxiety here along the SE NC coast, where Hazel literally left only one house standing. I know that they will say that they run these stories to inform the public, but it just seems like fear-mongering to me.

I didn't see that, but that would have been bad reporting, which surprises me because there are really good meteorologists there (Angela Fritz, Jason Samenow, etc). A Hazel is possible (probably less likely if model trends continue), but there is no way you can speculate on where this will end up.

It amazes me to think what this board would be like had it been around 60 years ago...outside 2004-2005, there has been nothing in recent decades that compares to the U.S. impacts of those decades. If this active cycle is indeed over, which I think it is, I think we can all say we got off very easy. Yes, there were some really bad storms (Katrina, Sandy). But it wasn't like back then, when virtually every year you could count on at least one blockbuster storm.

[AutoPenalti]

Ranks up there for one of the biggest naked swirls I have seen.

Chances getting better for this bad boy to slip under the trough.

The snap back could be one for the record books if it occurs.


http://i63.tinypic.com/257mwb6.gif

It's really tough to say at this point, but it's not out of the books.

[Blown Away]

Wow, center running out from under convection...

[GCANE]

That pretty much destroys the core for now.

[AutoPenalti]

Props to Hammy for calling this out, even with some people going against the idea.

[Nimbus]

That huge upper level low that was centered over the Great Lakes yesterday is dropping south. Centered over Chicago now. IF that trend continues there will be a nice shear block for the SE Conus.

[ronjon]

Looks like low level center heading more W-SW now and decoupled. Portends a weakening trend at least in the short term.

[cajungal]

I wonder if it stays weak if it will get pulled further westward before making the turn.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781487657360715776

[GCANE]

SW-Quad winds a joke, and surface pressure up 1 mb.

[northjaxpro]

Center almost completely exposed now. Wow. I did not anticipate shear levels to be this strong today in past analysis.Well, at least to be strong enough to get Matthew naked, as he is now. I have not yet seen the updated shear analysis, but looking at imagery this morning I would speculate that southwest shear is at least around 20 kts.

[Ken711]

Center almost completely exposed now. Wow. I did not anticipate shear levels to be this strong today in past analysis.Well, at Well east to to be strong enough to get Matthew naked, as he is now. I have not yet seen the updated shear analysis, but looking at imagery this morning I would speculate that southwest shear is at least around 20 kts.

Should this allow it to slow down and move further west?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Center almost completely exposed now. Wow. I did not anticipate shear levels to be this strong today in past analysis.Well, at Well east to to be strong enough to get Matthew naked, as he is now. I have not yet seen the updated shear analysis, but looking at imagery this morning I would speculate that southwest shear is at least around 20 kts.

Looks like a post 2012 storm to me. All the convection east of the center. Question is if it is weaker does it go further west????

[tolakram]

Water Vapor loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-66&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv3.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[tolakram]

So far there doesn't seem to be a big concern further down the road. The models did have this a bit lopsided for a few days, but I just don't know if they got the shear correct or not. Weak and west is certainly an interesting thing to think about.

[Aric Dunn]

So far there doesn't seem to be a big concern further down the road. The models did have this a bit lopsided for a few days, but I just don't know if they got the shear correct or not. Weak and west is certainly an interesting thing to think about.

ITs quite possible it gets just far enough west being caught in the low level flow to shift west far enough to affect the US even florida.

[northjaxpro]

Well, a weaker, sheared system will traverse in the low level flow. The forward speed has slowed since yesterday. Once the system rounds the periphery of the Western Atlantic ridge north of Matthew, the cyclone will really slow down significantly.

The question is where or far much farther west will Matthew be when the poleward turn commences?

[hurricanehunter69]

This is why I'm thinking this isn't going to strengthen much more. The forecasts simply don't seem to see the shear this year for some reason.

Are you trolling? Every major model shows a strong hurricane once it gets further west and when it begins the turn. Eastern Caribbean is not the most favorable location for strengthening though he's still trying to.

Every major model showed Erika as a major hurricane too. At one point, every model showed Hermine as a major hurricane. And Karl. The models have done absolutely -awful- with the shear forecasts this year.

Every major model indicated Matthew would not be dealing with the shear it is currently dealing with.

I don't know why everyone here is discounting without consideration the possibility that they are wrong here when the real time conditions are worse than what the models are showing, and if you have bad data in the models, you are guaranteed to have a bad forecast.

And if you're going to toss trolling accusations, don't forget I was right on Erika last year as well as Karl--not a chance it would become a hurricane and it didn't.

You nailed it baby. Good job! I have to wonder if a weaker storm can influence/nudge Matthew to the magic number 78W-80W....?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Shear is worse that forecast, and I am wondering if it's not part of local synoptic setup that the models missed (Just so many variables in the atmosphere) relative to intensity of the system. GFS and ECMWF, NAVGEM all have trended consistently a stronger storm up to the nominal turning point of 15N 75W, which has been the consensus for the past 4 days or so. The shear from upper air pattern look like it will affect Matthew through Friday at least ( see below) and also looking at WV, dry air from South America ( perhaps subsidence from the mountains) is aligned with the shear vector which is robbing the W and SW inflow of moisture and inhibiting convection. GFS and ECMWF don't show much strengthening until tomorrow, it's notable that the modeled pressures are a bit higher than current 995 mb yet the winds are high away from the convection. All this to say that it seems more likely now to weaken through Friday, and get steered at the lower levels, which I estimate would delay the turn north by many hours and also "smooth" the turn radius since the storm would be much shallower.


Just a theory and be interesting to see how the synoptics play out here , but hey! it's the tropics and I'm no expert. Have to see what the next set of runs shows
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=shear&runtime=2016092906&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=471

PS, back it up to Friday...I suck at posting properly